It should be impossible for Lieberman to win. The underlying political structure of this race is remarkably unstable. Only a complete disregard by the Lamont team for the unusual political dynamics has allowed Lieberman his lead.
Strategy: Drop the negative ads against Lieberman (with one exception I'll mention later). Put your money into negative issue ads against Schlesinger. Lamont should define himself as the Democratic candidate in the race by defining Schlesinger as the Republican candidate. This will increase Schlesinger's share of the vote, increase Lamont's share of the vote , and decrease Lieberman's share of the vote.
Richard Foley, the campaign manager for Schlesinger, said his candidate will outperform the polls -- all of which show Schlesinger mired in single digits.
"It's not going to happen that way," Foley said. "I am not questioning anybody's methodology or anybody's sanity, but I will tell you there is almost no situation I envision where Alan Schlesinger gets less than 15 or 20 percent. That is the minimum vote."
Foley should be right about that. If he is, there is no chance that Lieberman wins the election. Schlesinger will have taken about half the Repub vote in that case. The Unaffiliatedss are leaning towards Lieberman and the Dems are going overwhelmingly towards Lamont. Race over in a blowout.
Latest Poll Lieberman 46 Lamont 39 Schlesinger 4
People have been talking about shifting momentum one way or the other, but if you look at the trend lines since the primary in mid august, there's been little movement. The average of the last five polls is identical to the average of the last ten polls.
If the dynamic does not change, Lamont will lose. This suggests that more negative ads of Lieberman from the left aren't going to move anybody.
Fortunately, you have a fairly liberal democrat (Lieberman) running with the nearly full support of the republican portion of the electorate despite the fact that a Republican is running. That should not be sustainable.
Why has it worked so far?
1. The Republican has no money.
2. The Republican has no support from the national party.
3. Lieberman has done nothing to piss off the Republican portion of the electorate during the election and they appreciate his support for the war. Republicans are voting aginst Lamont as much as they are voting for Lieb.
4. There's a portion of the Democratic voting population that is not going to leave Lieberman (roughly 30%).
So what strategy does this suggest one should follow in a state with 30% of the electorate being Republicans?
A. Forget the dems
So don't waste money directly fighting for the remaining Dems. If they haven't been convinced by your argument yet, they're not going to change their minds until Lieberman claims to be a Republican. Likewise, those who have left Lieberman aren't going to switch back.
B. Take the place of the NRSC
Give Schlesinger a leg up. Fortunately, there are three debates and Schlesinger is in all three. I guarantee poll shifts after the debates in Schles. direction. But Lamont has the money that the repubs won't give Schles. Lamont should, more or less, ignore Lieberman and redefine this race. He can help Schles. while attacking him.
If we remember that Repubs are voting against Lamont as much as for Lieb, then Lamont should establish Schlesinger as his real target. Ascribe to him positions that Repubs love, but Dems hate. If Lamont wants to run an antiwar ad against Lieberman, run it against Schlesinger instead. If Lamont wants to run an anti-NCLB against Lieb, run it against Schles instead.
The natural reaction of the Repub voter will be to defend the repub candidate. And when they see that R behind Shclesinger's name on the ballot, a good portion of them will vote for him. Moreover, if polls show Lieberman beginning to lose, I'll bet you the Repubs bail on Lieb en masse.
Despite a steady 10 point lead for Lieberman, I am convinced that a Lamont 10 point victory is possible.
C. Lieberman is not a Republican; he's a Snake
Lastly, the only ads that you should run against Lieberman should be ads that will piss of repubs as well as dems. This can be done by showing Lieb flip-flopping on the issues. Should Repubs be voting for a guy whose voting record is so good on choice? No. Should the dems be voting for a guy who thinks doctors should be able top refuse treatment to women or who refused to filibuster Alito. Nope. Is his position consistent? Nope. Should it piss everybody off? Yep. Make it into an add.
To sum up. Stop reinforcing this as Lamont v Lieberman. This makes repubs like Lieb, and a portion of the dems aren't going to leave Lieberman. Reframe the battle as Dem v Republican and the Republican is Schlesinger. This makes repubs like schlesinger and dems like Lamont (even those dems that might also want to vote for Lieberman). This is also likely to make Lamont a champion for the dem-leaning unaffiliateds.
Go.