Warner will not run for president
by kos
Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 07:55:11 AM PDT
You all know how I've felt about being on the road and away from my wife and kid, so if there's a "best reason not to run", this is it.
As his statement says, he's not done running for office. His love for the office of governor is well-known, so he would be considered a shoo-in for the governorship in 2009 if he chooses that route. (Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms.) Better yet, he would be a strong candidate for the Senate seat in 2008, regardless whether John Warner (R) runs again or not. But, if the rumors are true and John Warner retires, that would be as close to a guaranteed pickup as you can get in politics. (His Republican challenger would likely be Rep. Tom Davis.)
For now, Warner has a hefty campaign schedule and has committed to spending the last week of the election stumping with Jim Webb.
The biggest winner of the 2008 field? There are several. John Edwards, already the frontrunner in my opinion, loses the only serious southern opponent. Already strong in Iowa and Nevada, this will make him the prohibitive favorite in the fourth contest in South Carolina. If he wins the first three out of four, he's looking pretty good.
Bill Richardson becomes the only serious candidate in the race who is a governor, making it easier for him to distinguish himself from the crowd.
As for HIllary, this is a double-edged sword. She loses the one candidate who probably could've gone toe to toe with her on the money front, and the one who had easily built up the most innovative, competent campaign team. But, Hillary will do best if the field remains cluttered with a ton of men. That way, she can win primaries with 30 percent of the vote. If the field narrows quickly, she'd be in trouble. (Of course, I'm still not convinced Hillary is running...)
Finally, this opens up a hole in the field for another compelling "outsider" not tainted with being part of the DC establishment. Right now, the only serious outsider in the race is Wesley Clark. Another governor? The pickings are slim this year. Obama? Perhaps still too raw, but he's ambitious and the rumors are flying fast and furious. His recent dis of Daily Kos might even be a sign he's burnishing his "centrist" credentials (though his spokesmen pleaded selective quotation on the part of the writer to make the quote seem more inflammatory than it really was).
Anyway, back to Warner, it looks like all of the illicit suitcases of cash he sent over to buy my support were for naught. Drats. Regardless, I'm left a bit underwhelmed by the current crop of contenders. But the nice thing about being 100 percent undecided about the field is I'll be able to cover the primary race without any biases.
The 2008 straw poll will be back after the November elections. I'll be curious to see where the 12 percent or so of his support ends up.
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