Daily Kos

Matthew 24:6

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:22:49 AM PDT

So I woke up this morning to the news that North Korea is denouncing U.N. sanctions imposed on it in the wake of its purported nuclear weapons test last week. According to an AP report in the WaPo:

The North broke two days of silence about the U.N. resolution adopted after its Oct. 9 nuclear test, issuing a Foreign Ministry statement on its official Korean Central News Agency.

"The resolution cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war" against the North, also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The North warned it "wants peace but is not afraid of war" and that it would "deal merciless blows" against anyone who violates its sovereignty.

It would appear that we must add strategery to the lengthening list of things which the Boy Who Would Be King and the passel of chickenshit chickenhawks who advise him on war and foreign policy folly either don't know or failed to remember. North Korea is already the most isolated nation on the face of the earth. There are tinpot dictatorships in the middle of the African rain forest that have greater access to what we're pleased to call the First World and all that comes from it than do Kim Jong Il and his sorry, downtrodden people.

Now, before the conservacon-artists accuse me of getting all touchy-feely about the sufferings of the poor North Koreans, let me make it perfectly clear that I'm not suggesting we should send over a brigade of clinical psychologists to give them emergency "I'm OK, you're OK" therapy sessions. That would be both pointless and stupid--which would, however, represent a significant improvement over what the Bu$hevik Brigade has been trying, which has been pointless, stupid, dangerous, and almost completely based on wishful thinking instead of hard evidence.

North Korea is the classic example of why Sun Tzu advised leaving a surrounded enemy a means of escape. When your back is against the wall, you'll fight anybody who comes at you, and fight to the utmost, simply because that's what you have to do to get out of a rotten situation. Kim Jong Il, the North Korean Communist Party and, to a lesser but still significant extent, the entire population of the DPRK is in such a situation. They've never been able to feed themselves, a situation that hasn't been helped any by the Dear Leader's delusions of grandeur--which require him to spend flipping great wodges of cash he doesn't have in order to buy weaponry to defend himself as much from the possibility of a revolt from within as an attack from without.

And let's face it, Kim is not exactly the most thoroughly well-adjusted leader in the world. His father ruled North Korea with an iron fist for nearly 50 years and is at least officially revered as something awfully close to a god. The North Korean constitution refers to Kim Il Sung as the country's "eternal president," which doesn't exactly redound to the credit of the current holder of the presidency. That's a tremendous burden to have to shoulder even when one is actually playing with a full deck.

What the Bu$hoviki seem to have forgotten is that people who are trapped in an unfavorable situation, like people who are not entirely mentally stable, are unpredictable. They need to be handled with kid gloves and patience, whereas the Bumbling Band of Boobs in charge of U.S. foreign policy, taken together, don't have the patience between them to wait for a three-minute egg. Combined with the fact that their entire policy agenda seems to revolve around the projection of U.S. power no matter the cost, it's hard for me to see how this game of Ultimate Mexican Standoff is going to end well for anyone.

Returning to Sun Tzu, for all the counsel one will find in his thin volume of classic wisdom about the best way to run a battle, one of the themes he comes back to time and again is that the general who wins a hundred victories in battle is not to be considered the best leader. The true leader is the one who breaks the enemy's will to fight before battle is joined, who convinces his foe to flee before his superior forces even when his armies are numerically the lesser. And, summing up the whole course of the last six years of Bu$hevik strategery, "Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."

It is precisely because of crap like this that we need to sweep the Republicans from power in Congress, before taking back the White House in 2008. We simply can't afford--on any level--to give the Shrubbery any more rope with which to hang itself. Because if we do, they're going to make sure they hang us with it first.

(Oh, yeah. The Scripture reference in the post title: μελλήσετε δὲ ἀκούειν πολέμους καὶ ἀκοὰς πολέμων, "You shall hear of wars and rumors of wars." Most Christians take this verse as something to avoid. It would appear that the Busheviki and their Christianist allies seem to think that the wars and rumors of wars should be hurried to fruition, that Jesus may come back all the quicker. I find that a disturbing and disgusting basis for our foreign policy, but then that's why I'm a member of the reality-based community.)

Cross-posted from Musing's musings because deepfish asked me to. But you should definitely go read--and recommend--his diary on the subject.

Tags: North Korea, nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, Kim Jong Il, George W. Bush, foreign policy (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 49 comments

  •  I don't think it's Chicken Little time...yet (10+ / 0-)

    But I'm always worried when it looks like there's a war on the horizon. Doubly so when the Shrubbery is in power, because war, for that bunch, is like a candle flame to a moth: irresistible and, ultimately, fatal. Though usually not to the Bu$hoviki themselves. Just to a lot of young men and women who should have lived a lot longer, happier lives.

    •  No war in Korea is coming (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      musing85, Arken

      Unless Kim does something really stupid in regards to Japan. North Korea is great at generating noise, but I don't expect much heat.

      Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

      by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:29:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ironically, in this situation (4+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        deepfish, paxpdx, BachFan, alwaysquestion, elie

        it's not North Korea I'm worrying about. We're three weeks away from the midterm election that looks increasingly likely to toss the Republicans back onto the rubbish heap of history where they belong. As long as they think they can keep it from going nukular, I could easily see the Shrubbery at least engaging in a game of "chicken" to boost their macho and scare the bejesus out of any independents who might be thinking of going over to the dark light side. And given their track record of shooting first and asking questions (or making plans) later, I can't say as I'm wild about the prospects of the Shrubbery getting it right here.

    •  did you notice, also (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      deepfish

      that China is barely abiding by the U.N. sanctions?  Yesterday traffic moved through the border with nary a stopped or searched vehicle - and when they did stop something, they opened a door and then allowed it to move on.

      We are relying on China to do our talking.

      China is not about to enforce these sanctions...and there are rumours of a second impending test.  That will result in tighter sanctions (getting into food and basic living supplies), which would only push refuges over to the China border.  China is NOT going to help us out here (frankly, I believe we are going to find that there is some collusion between the two, and when we do, it will be awfully late)

      So half tinfoil hat, the other half fact.  China isn't enforcing those sanctions (fact), and China is probably in collusion (tinfoil hat)

      Blogging locally, acting globally 4&20 blackbirds

      by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:14:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  China. (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        musing85, jhwygirl

        They are also communist, no?

        Very proud of their communism, no?

        Do they also share some cultural similarities with N Korea that might keep them from being tough.

        Just maybe?

        New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

        by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:29:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honest to God, and don't we all know it - (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          coigue

          that the WH is filled with morons.

          While the trucks lined up on the China border, while the Chinese military feigned inspection, Condi stood on the podium during her press conference and explained calmly, like it was all good news, that our strategy was to have China put pressure on NK.

          November 7th can't come soon enough, 2008 can't come soon enough.

          Blogging locally, acting globally 4&20 blackbirds

          by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:43:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Startling ignorance (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          gong, musing85

          North Korea and China have been going in startlingly different directions for almost 30 years now, and there's a lot of bad blood between them. China is ruled by the Communist Party -- which wants to stay in power -- but it's not "prood of its communism." It's pretty much a capitalist state now with an an authoritarian government that isn't really left wing in any meaningful sort of way. Korea, on the other hand, is an odd isolationist state with an enormous cult of personality and cult of "Koreaness" (close as I can describe juche) that precludes closeness to anyone, including China.

          Read a book, a magazine, or newspaper web site for a few weeks.

          Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

          by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:08:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not so startling, considering the source (me) (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            musing85

            but actually it was mostly intended to be snark, rather than thoughtful analysis.  Jeez. What a fucking grouch you are.

            As to the "proud" comment, c'mon...the Chinese are very proud as a people, to a fault...as are the Koreans.

            But there are certainly tensions between the capitalist China and Communist China, but they are too proud to admit it to the likes of GW Bush.

            New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

            by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:28:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Proud of being Chinese, yeah (2+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              gong, coigue

              Not a surprise given that the CCP has been playing the nationalist angle to bolster its legitimacy given that Communism is pretty played out as a factor for loyalty in China. Proud of being communist, no, not really actually...but the Party has stopped requiring that. It's the Chinese version of don't ask, don't tell.

              Grouch, yeah, guilty as charged.

              Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

              by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:33:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  You're wrong (0+ / 0-)

        China did in fact start enforcing the sanctions today. And, no, there is no collusion...China isn't keen on a war on the Korean peninsula, and doesn't trust Pyongyang.

        Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

        by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:03:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  News reports yesterday (0+ / 0-)

          from MSNBC and CNN showed just how China was enforcing the sanctions.  Traffic was lined up just like normal, and loaded trucks flowed by without any stopping.  Those that were had the guards merely opening doors of large 18 wheelers, looking into the doors, and closing them up, waving them on.

          further, news crews from one of those stations rode a speed boat right up the river into North Korea with no one in sight to stop them or anything.

          China might have voted for the sanctions, but they make tons of cash selling goods to North Korea (capitalist state, right?) - does China play nice with the world or do they continue to sell goods to North Korea.

          I'm betting that China feels they can, if pushed, deal with North Korea on their own - militarily if need be.

          Both nations are isolationists, and don't want or accept other people meddling in thier affairs.

          Blogging locally, acting globally 4&20 blackbirds

          by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:18:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  China doesn't make a ton of cash (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            jhwygirl

            North Korea is a charity case that Beijing caries for historical reasons, and is awfully tired at Pyongyang's lack of gratitude.

            Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

            by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:34:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And China hasn't been isolationist (0+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            The Termite

            for 20 years...it's very protective of its own sovereignty (cause it does a lot of bad shit to its own people), but it's a major trading nation and a member of the WTO, etc, etc.

            Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

            by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:35:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I use the term isolationist (0+ / 0-)

              in the sense that it doesn't want people meddling with it's internal/political affairs - commerce activity is another thing, and certainly in those regards it isn't isolationist.  Look how far we've gotten with their human rights issues, and that's what I'm referring to.  They simply will not discuss the matter.  They do what they can to control internet accessibility and information - controlling what news they want to get out and what they want to get in.  

              But money, well, that's entirely different.

              Blogging locally, acting globally 4&20 blackbirds

              by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:41:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  a question (0+ / 0-)

          and I mean this sincerely, not as a smart @%% -

          You trust China to look out for our interests?  You think that China's interests will correlate fully with ours?

          Blogging locally, acting globally 4&20 blackbirds

          by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:24:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  China will look after its interests (2+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            musing85, jhwygirl

            And in this instance its interests are pretty close to U.S. interests...neither party wants a war on the Korean peninsula at this juncture, and neither trusts North Korea. That's how diplomacy works...common interests. Even countries which aren't democratic and don't particularly like the U.S. are willing to work with the U.S. when it's in their interests.

            Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

            by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:37:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Of course not. (0+ / 0-)

          But how pourous will those sanctions be?

          New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

          by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:29:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  China is genuinely pissed at North Korea (0+ / 0-)

            But I don't know what form it will take to exhibit it's real displeasure...the fact that China was talking a few days ago about the need to halt North Korean money laundering was interesting, because that could be done a lot more quietly and hurt senior members of the regime a lot more directly.

            As for sanctions...hard to say. I do think it's foolish to expect them to work right on the first day. Let's take a look in a month and see how well they're being enforced.

            Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

            by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:41:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  The world is their video game, (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Big River Bandido, elie

      Yes, they are lousy at the art of war......but they do know this, war makes for favorable politics.

      New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

      by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:25:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I always find that odd (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    musing85, cookiebear

    That mankind needs to fuck up really badly, even terminally, and for its pains gets rewarded with God's kingdom on earth. Actually, this strikes me as fundamentally immoral, let alone kinda unsafe...the almighty doesn't usually show up when he's needed. In fact, he never seems to show up at all. Seems unsound to rely on her to bail us out of our own stupidity. Of course, as a rationalist/hard agnostic I'd feel that anyway, wouldn't I?

    China's on the rest of the world's side on this one -- it's already started screen shipments at the border to enforce UN sanctions, so I expect a lot of hot air and shouting with the hand on the sabre, but not much else, thank the fates.

    Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

    by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:28:05 AM PDT

    •  That's actually (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      alwaysquestion

      one of the things that makes me the most nervous. China is where North Korea gets most of its food. Anything that slows or interrupts that process has got to put more pressure on the government to remove the blockage--or else to relieve the pressure of a starving and pissed-off populace through other means. If Kim feels pushed too hard, it's hard to tell just what he'll do. Messing with him in this way, right now, is the diplomatic and political equivalent of playing hackysack with a bladder full of mercury fulminate.

      •  Your anxiety is misplaced (0+ / 0-)

        It's not if Kim has anywhere else to turn. If he attacks China, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will make very short work of him indeed. Attacking U.S. and South Korean forces would also suicidal. From all I've read as Kim, he's as crazy as a fox, and not suicidal.

        Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

        by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:42:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But when you're dying already (0+ / 0-)

          from starvation, suddenly suicide doesn't seem like such a bad idea. And warfare, whether conventional or otherwise, kills a whole lot quicker than not having any food.

          •  Kim ain't dying (0+ / 0-)

            He eats pretty well, from what I've read. He's mainly interested in staying in power. Losing a war is the best way to end up facing victors' justice. Without China's backing in a war -- which he's not going to get at this point -- Kim's will lose. Most of that massive army ain't worth shit...only a few trustworthy units loyal to Kim are armed or fed properly, from what I've read.

            Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

            by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:57:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, but a lot of the people he rules are (0+ / 0-)

              And that's never a good situation to be in for a ruler. And when things get bad enough, all the weaponry  in the world isn't going to be enough to stop a bunch of desperate people with nothing to lose who just want the right to dig through your trash cans for something that might still sorta be edible.

              •  Food situation has dramatically improved (0+ / 0-)

                in North Korea in the past few years; better harvests, less flooding and a much more efficient aid distribution system.

                Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

                by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 11:43:58 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  So they tell us (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm not inclined to place a lot of reliance on what the North Koreans are pleased to call news. Plus, how are they going to be able to sustain that level of production if they're not getting any assistance from China, whether in the form of hard currency with which to purchase fertilizers and the like, or direct aid (fertilizers, equipment, etc.)? If it were just the U.S. saber-rattling, I'd be a lot more likely to believe there was a good outcome from this mess. But with China as pissed at Pyongyang as Washington is, it's harder to see that silver lining.

                  •  Lots of aid personnel in North Korea now (0+ / 0-)

                    So more information is getting out through informal channels. China will calibrate its response: enough to punish Kim, not enough to bring down the regime and send refugees flooding into Dalian, Harbin, etc. China probably has better intelligence than anyone else, but still it's a tricky game.

                    Je suis Marxiste, tendance Groucho.

                    by gracchus on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 12:05:33 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  Reminds me of pre-WW2 Germany. (0+ / 0-)

        New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

        by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:31:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The amazing grace sydrome. (0+ / 0-)

      you have to get lost before you're found.

      Of course, most of us get pretty happily lost....knowing the pitfalls and not really caring.

      New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

      by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:30:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It is important when reading Sun-Tzu... (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    musing85, alwaysquestion

    ...to remember that he was a participant in the wars for Chinese unification.  He argues in favor of convincing armies to surrender without fighting because he goes on to say that those armies can be incorporated into your own.

    When it does come to combat, however, Sun-Tzu does not equivocate, and would have been comfortable with the Clausewitzian notion of 'Total War'.

    The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

    by Jay Elias on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:33:15 AM PDT

  •  Good application of Sun Tzu... (4+ / 0-)

    ...with one caveat.  It is not the United States that has isolated North Korea, but Kim (and his father) who has isolated North Korea.  Sanctions would certainly serve to isolate them more completely and probably de-stabilize the situation.

    I do not have the solution to this problem, but one thing I'd like to see is equal energy applied to the humanitarian problem as the military one, because I believe there is overlap.  What I mean is that if we could find a way to "airlift" (I know that's not the medium, but bear with me) food and clothing and support to the oppressed and impoverished North Korean people, we could break the stranglehold of propaganda.  Kim could decry the United States' charity and aid as an act of war all he wants; people are still going to eat our food and drink our water and don our mittens.  And soon Kim starts to sound absurd to his people, and once Kim starts to sound absurd to his people, he starts to sound absurd to his army, and then the historically short tenure of most military dictatorships starts to look like N. Korea's fate.

    "I've waited all my life for a Republican Barack Obama. Now he shows up and he's a Democrat." - Frank Luntz

    by The Termite on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:56:06 AM PDT

    •  Great comment. (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      musing85, The Termite

      New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

      by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:32:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  While I commend the sentiment (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      musing85, jhwygirl

      and your attempt to find a new solution in North Korea, in a sense this is not really a new idea, and history is not encouraging.  President Johnson had a fantasy about getting Ho Chi Minh to "drop" his war, and in exchange he (LBJ) would arrange for a huge aid package to develop Vietnam.  He envisioned the rural electrification program all over again, for the Mekong Delta instead of the Tennessee Valley.  Needless to say, Johnson's idea (while it had some conceptual merit) was about 15-20 years too late, and too "Ameri-centric" and ignorant about Vietnam to be realistic or effective.  

      That said, if we could find something to offer Kim which he might want more than atomic weapons, whatever that something is might well be worth the price.  

      Then the only trick will be getting Chimpy McCokehead to see it that way.

  •  The North Korea threat is pointless.... (0+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    elie

    they're already at war with us. Peace has never been declared. We're simply in a fifty-year old holding pattern with a DMZ in the middle. So the North Koreans aren't actually saying anything new.

  •  How can you say (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    musing85, jhwygirl

    that the Bushies can't coddle crazies? They've been doing that with the religious right since day 1.

    New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

    by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:24:04 AM PDT

    •  Yabbut (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      coigue

      He doesn't see Kim Jong Il as a member of that class. Or at least not a member of that class he needs to coddle. The worst that can happen if the Bu$hoviki stop coddling the Christianists is that the Republican Party will fall from power--and that seems about to happen anyway. The worst that can happen if Kim decides to play for all the marbles is, well, potentially a whole lot worse.

      •  No kidding. (0+ / 0-)

        On all counts.

        My point is that they ARE indeed capable of that sort of deception....but in this case they choose not to.

        Of course it is interesting to contrast his milquetoast response to Korea (who actually has military power), with his response to Iraq. I remember shaking my head about that before the war....why do we go to war when Scott Ritter et al say there aren't any WMDs...when KJ Il was rumbling that he did have WMDs.

        The answer seems clear: Bushco thought they had an easy victory ahead in Iraq.  

        New Frame: McCain thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and will say anything to get what he thinks he is owed.

        by coigue on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:52:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  A Scripture passage (0+ / 0-)

      that I'm quite sure isn't on the Shrubbery's reading list:

      In days to come, The mountain of the LORD's house shall be established as the highest mountain and raised above the hills. All nations shall stream toward it; many peoples shall come and say: "Come, let us climb the LORD's mountain, to the house of the God of Jacob, That he may instruct us in his ways, and we may walk in his paths." For from Zion shall go forth instruction, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem. He shall judge between the nations, and impose terms on many peoples. They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks; One nation shall not raise the sword against another, nor shall they train for war again.

      --New American Bible

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