I last posted an update of the pros' composite House ratings on September 27, two days before hurricane Foley hit. Obviously, much has changed in the three weeks since then--almost all of it in the Dems' favor. Stu Rothenberg now calls the Democrats "solid favorites" for House control, Charlie Cook says a gain of 30 is more likely than a gain of 15, and the GOP is rapidly writing off races as unwinnable. Several races have jumped significantly.
The totals: there are now 9 GOP seats the consensus puts in the Dems' column; 17 more are pure tossups; another 16 give the GOP the smallest of edges; and 20 more are competitive with a potential for an upset. All told, 70 GOP seats make various analysts' watch lists. In addition, I add 15 more longshot possibilities where the Dem is within 20 in indy polling and/or the race has some dynamic I think could conceivably lead to an upset.
On the Dem side, according to these analysts, no races are tossups or in the GOP column; 7 give the Dem a small edge; another 7 are competitive with upset potential. All told, 21 Dem seats make somebody's watch list, and I added 3 more to watch.
As in September, I include poll numbers from nonpartisan polls and my thoughts on potential upset races to watch that did not make any of the pros' lists. Bottom line, the Dems are solidly positioned to make double-digit gains and could approach the GOP's 1994 gain of 54. As of now, my best prediction of the most likely outcome is around +35.
Anyone who has read one of these before can skip to the ratings.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), the New York Times has only a two-tiered rating system ("tossup" and "leans [party]"), and the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd now produces a top 60 list, while Cilizza's is only top-25.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races (this month, for the first time, some handicappers are putting some GOP seats in lean or even likely Dem. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean Dem, 60 points for a pure lean Dem, and 75 for a likely Dem. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean GOP category). I assigned 40 points for a tossup and 20 for a lean rating under the Times' two-tier system.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Obviously, the higher a seat's total points, the more likely it is to change parties. Last week's point totals are in parentheses for comparison. Incumbents are denoted with an asterisk. Here's what they say 41 days from Election Day:
GOP Seats
Likely Dem (485+)
1. Arizona 08 (OPEN R) (510) (2-391) (Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R)) Poll: Giffords 48, Graf 36 (Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2, Kenski 9/20-23, Zimmerman, Sep. 18)
Lean Dem (375+)
2. Texas 22 (OPEN R) (432) (1-397) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in))
3. Florida 16 (Foley (R)) (428) (50t-45) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Joen Negron (R) (incumbent Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot)
4. Colorado 07 (OPEN R) (424) (4-357) (Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R)) Poll: Perlmutter 46, O'Donnell 40 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Mason-Dixon 10/3-7, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
5. Indiana 08 (Hostettler (R)) (409) (5-355) (Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R)) Poll: Ellsworth 55, Hostettler 32 (ISU Oct. 5-12)
6. Iowa 01 (OPEN R) (395) (3-374) (Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R)) Poll: Whalen 42, Braley 39 (Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2, Selzer & Co. 9/10-13)
7t. Indiana 02 (Chocola (R)) (387) (8-315) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R)) Poll: Donnelly 50, Chocola 43 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
7t. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood (R)) (387) (23-222) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R)) Poll: Carney 47, Sherwood 38 (Lycoming College 9/24-28)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Dem (355-374)
9. Ohio 18 (OPEN R) (369) (15-286) (Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R)) Poll: Space 48, Padgett 39 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
Tossups (255-354)
10. New York 26 (Reynolds (R)) (347) (60t-15) (Jack Davis (D) vs. Tom Reynolds* (R)) Poll: Davis 51, Reynolds 39 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Zogby 10/4-5, SurveyUSA 10/2-4)
11. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach (R)) (343) (6-341) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R)) Poll: Murphy 48, Gerlach 44 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
12. Ohio 15 (Pryce (R)) (337) (18-270) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R)) Poll: Kilroy 53, Pryce 41 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
13. Indiana 09 (Sodrel (R)) (335) (7-325) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R)) Poll: Hill 47, Sodrel 42 (SurveyUSA 10/6-9, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
14. North Carolina 11 (Taylor (R)) (328) (10t-302) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor* (R)) Poll: Shuler 51, Taylor 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
15t. Florida 22 (Shaw (R)) (324) (13-298) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R)) Poll: Shaw 52, Klein 44 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
15t. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon (R)) (324) (20-239) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R)) Poll: Sestak 52, Weldon 44
17. New Mexico 01 (Wilson (R)) (318) (10t-302) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R)) Poll: Madrid 53, Wilson 45 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16, RT Strategies 10/8-10)
18. New York 24 (OPEN R) (314) (17-271) (Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R)) Poll: Arcuri 53, Meier 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
19. Illinois 06 (OPEN R) (306) (14-287) (Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)) Poll: Duckworth 45, Roskam 43 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
20. Connecticut 02 (Simmons (R)) (304) (12-301) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R)) Poll: Simmons 44, Courtney 41 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
21. Washington 08 (Reichert (R)) (296) (21-234) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R)) Poll: Reichert 49, Burner 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, SurveyUSA 9/24-26)
22. Connecticut 04 (Shays (R)) (290) (9-304) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R)) Poll: Farrell 43, Shays 42 (Univ. of Conn. 9/25-10/1, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
23. Virginia 02 (Drake (R)) (288) (16-282) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R)) Poll: Kellam 46, Drake 45 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
24. Florida 13 (OPEN R) (284) (32-133) (Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R)) Poll: Jennings 47, Buchanan 44 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
25. Minnesota 06 (OPEN R) (271) (22-231) (Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R)) Poll: Wetterling 46, Bachmann 44 (Minneapolis Star-Trib. 10/6-12, RT Strategies 10/8-10, SurveyUSA 10/6-8, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
26. Kentucky 04 (Davis (R)) (270) (19-255) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R)) Poll: Davis 46, Lucas 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, SurveyUSA 10/7-9, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Rep (235-254)
27. Ohio 01 (Chabot (R)) (246) (24-215) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
28. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN R) (244) (27-196) (Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R)) Poll: Kagen 48, Gard 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
Lean Rep (155-234)
29. Connecticut 05 (Johnson (R)) (232) (26-213) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R)) Poll: Johnson 52, Murphy 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
30t. New York 20 (Sweeney (R)) (213) (28-186) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R)) Poll: Sweeney 50, Gillibrand 37 (Global Strategy Group 8/29-31, Siena College, 8/21-23)
30t. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick (R)) (213) (25-214) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R)) Poll: Fitzpatrick 53, Murphy 45 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
32. New York 29 (Kuhl (R)) (195) (31-153) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
33. Arizona 05 (Hayworth (R)) (182) (29-174) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth* (R)) Poll: Hayworth 48, Mitchell 45 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
34. Texas 23 (180) (30-162) (Several Dems (D) vs. Henry Bonilla* (R))
35. California 11 (Pombo (R)) (179) (42-86) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
36. Colorado 04 (Musgrave (R)) (169) (35-117) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R)) Poll: Musgrave 46, Paccione 39 (Mason-Dixon 10/3-7, SurveyUSA 9/18-20)
37. Nevada 02 (OPEN R) (159) (36-118) (Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R)) Poll: Heller 45, Derby 42 (Mason-Dixon 9/19-21)
Tweeners, Lean Rep to Likely Rep (135-154)
38. New Hampshire 02 (Bass (R)) (151) (33-127) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R)) Poll: Bass 50, Hodes 33 (Granite State 9/15-24, Research 2000 9/13-14)
39. Kentucky 03 (Northup (R)) (142) (34-120) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R)) Poll: Northup 49, Yarmuth 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, SurveyUSA 9/26-28)
40t. California 04 (Doolittle (R)) (140) (56t-30) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R)) Poll: Doolittle 52, Brown 44 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
40t. Nevada 03 (Porter (R)) (140) (39-107) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R)) Poll: Porter 47, Hafen 37 (Mason-Dixon 9/19-21)
40t. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson (R)) (140) (37t-110) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R)) Poll: Ferguson 48, Stender 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
Likely Rep (55-134)
43. New York 19 (Kelly (R)) (129) (37t-110) (John Hall (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R)) Poll: Kelly 49, Hall 44 (Abacus Assoc. 9/13-17)
44. Wyoming at Large (Cubin (R)) (114) (40-105) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R)) Poll: Cubin 44, Trauner 37 (Mason-Dixon 10/9-12)
45. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht (R)) (107) (43-85) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R)) Poll: Gutknecht 48, Walz 47 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
46. Kentucky 02 (Lewis (R) (101) (45t-65) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
47. New York 25 (Walsh (R)) (98) (41-95) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
48. Ohio 02 (Schmidt (R)) (93) (50t-45) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R) Poll: Wulsin 48, Schmidt 45 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
49. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart (R)) (91) (60t-15) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
50t. Florida 09 (OPEN R) (75) (44-75) (Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R)) Poll: Bilirakis 61, Busansky 32 (SurveyUSA, 9/21-25)
50t. New York 03 (King (R)) (75) (47t-60) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R)) Poll: King 48, Mejias 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
52. Virginia 10 (Wolf (R)) (61) (60t-15) (Judy Feder (D) vs. Frank Wolf* (R)) Poll: Wolf 47, Feder 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
53t. Arizona 01 (Renzi (R)) (60) (47t-60) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R)) Poll: Simon 50, Renzi 46 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
53t. Colorado 05 (OPEN R) (60) (68-1) (Jay Fawcett (D) vs. Doug Lamborn (R)) Poll: Fawcett 37, Lamborn 37 (Mason-Dixon 10/3-7)
53t. Florida 08 (Keller (R)) (60) (50t-45) (Charlie Stuart (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
53t. Idaho 01 (OPEN R) (60) (56t-30) (Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R)) Poll: Sali 49, Grant 43 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
53t. Iowa 02 (Leach (R)) (60) (50t-45) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R)) Poll: Loebsack 48, Leach 47 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
53t. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry (R)) (60) (50t-45) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
53t. North Carolina 08 (Hayes (R)) (60) (56t-30) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R)) Poll: Kissell 51, Hayes 44 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
60. California 50 (Bilbray (R)) (58) (45t-65) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R)) Poll: Bilbray 50, Busby 46 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
Tweeners, Likely to Safe Rep (35-54)
61t. Illinois 10 (Kirk (R)) (45) (47t-60) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
61t. Minnesota 02 (Kline (R)) (45) (50t-45) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R)) Poll: Kline 50, Rowley 42 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
63. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley (R)) (30) (56t-30) (Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R)) Poll: Bradley 54, Shea-Porter 32 (Granite State 9/15-24, Research 2000 9/13-14)
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
64t. Louisiana 07 (Boustany (R)) (15) (60t-15) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
64t. Michigan 08 (Rogers (R)) (15) (60t-15) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
64t. New Jersey 05 (Garrett (R)) (15) (60t-15) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
64t. Washington 05 (McMorris (R)) (15) (60t-15) (Peter Goldmark (D) vs. Cathy McMorris* (R))
64t. West Virginia 02 (Capito (R)) (15) (60t-15) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
69. Ohio 12 (Tiberi (R)) (7) (nr-0) (Bob Shamansky (D) vs. Pat Tiberi* (R))
70. Kansas 02 (Ryun (R)) (2) (nr-0) (Nancy Boyda (D) vs. Jim Ryun* (R))
Other races unranked by the pros but with independent polling putting the challenger within 20 points
Illinois 14 (Hastert (R)) (John Laesch (D) vs. Dennis Hastert* (R)) Poll: Hastert 52, Laesch 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
California 26 (Dreier (R)) (Cynthia Matthews (D) vs. David Dreier* (R)) Poll: Dreier 48, Matthews 35 (SurveyUSA, Aug. 16)
Virginia 05 (Goode (R)) (Al Weed (D) vs. Virgil Goode* (R)) Poll: Goode 56, Weed 40 (SurveyUSA 10/8-10)
Florida 05 (Brown-Waite (R)) (John Russell (D) vs. Ginny Brown-Waite* (R)) Poll: Brown-Waite 56, Russell 40 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 19)
Illinois 19 (Shimkus (R)) (Danny Stover (D) vs. John Shimkus* (R)) Poll: Shimkus 53, Stover 36 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
Montana at Large (Rehberg (R)) (Monica Lindeen (D) vs. Dennis Rehberg* (R)) Poll: Rehberg 53, Lindeen 33 (Mason-Dixon 9/26-28)
Other races unranked by the pros that nonetheless are worth watching (says me, roughly in this order)
Colorado 06 (Tancredo (R)) (Bill Winter (D) vs. Tom Tancredo* (R))
Indiana 03 (Souder (R)) (Tom Hayhurst (D) vs. Mark Souder* (R))
Nebraska 03 (OPEN R) (Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Adrian Smith (R))
Iowa 04 (Latham (R)) (Selden Spencer (D) vs. Tom Latham* (R))
Ohio 03 (Turner (R)) (Dick Chema (D) vs. Mike Turner* (R))
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg (R)) (Nancy Skinner (D) vs. Joe Knollenberg* (R))
Texas 14 (Paul (R)) (Shane Sklar (D) vs. Ron Paul* (R))
California 45 (Bono (R)) (David Roth (D) vs. Mary Bono* (R))
Illinois 15 (Johnson (R)) (David Gill (D) vs. Tim Johnson* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (255-354)
None
Tweeners, Tossup to Lean Dem (235-254)
None
Lean Dem (155-234)
1. Georgia 12 (Barrow (D)) (207) (2-197) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
2. Iowa 03 (Boswell (D)) (206) (3-196) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R)) Poll: Boswell 53, Lamberti 42 (Research 2000 9/11-12, RT Strategies 8/27-29)
3. Georgia 08 (Marshall (D)) (201) (5-174) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
4. Illinois 08 (Bean (D)) (192) (1-205) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R)) Poll: Bean 48, McSweeney 45 (RT Strategies 8/27-29)
5. Vermont at Large (OPEN D) (178) (4-177) (Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)) Poll: Welch 48, Rainville 42 (Rasmussen 9/24, Research 2000 9/18-19, ARG 9/13-15)
Tweeners, Lean to Likely Dem (135-154)
6. Texas 17 (Edwards (D)) (142) (6-169) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R)) Poll: Edwards 55, Taylor 38 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
7. West Virginia 01 (Mollohan (D)) (136) (7-166) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R)) Poll: Mollohan 52, Wakim 42 (RT Strategies 8/27-29)
Likely Dem (55-134)
8. Louisiana 03 (Melancon (D)) (125) (9-149) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
9. South Carolina 05 (Spratt (D)) (110) (10-135) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R)) Poll: Spratt 56, Norman 42 (SurveyUSA 10/9-11)
10. Ohio 06 (OPEN D) (95) (8-155) (Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R)) Poll: Wilson 54, Blasdel 41 (SurveyUSA 9/26-28)
11. Colorado 03 (Salazar (D)) (80) (11t-95) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R)) Poll: Salazar 52, Tipton 41 (SurveyUSA 9/15-17)
12. Illinois 17 (OPEN D) (75) (13-78) (Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
13. Ohio 13 (OPEN D) (65) (11t-95) (Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
Tweener, Likely to Safe Dem (35-54)
14. South Dakota at Large (Herseth (D)) (50) (15-50) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
15. Oregon 05 (Hooley (D)) (45) (19t-30) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
16. Indiana 07 (Carson (D)) (35) (18-35) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R)) Poll: Carson 55, Dickerson 35 (Research 2000 9/5-8)
Other races listed by two handicappers
17t. Kansas 03 (Moore (D)) (30) (16t-45) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Chuck Ahner (R))
17t. Louisiana 02 (Jefferson (D)) (30) (21t-15) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
17t. Utah 02 (Matheson (D)) (30) (16t-45) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R)) Poll: Matheson 60, Christensen 24 (Dan Jones & Assoc. 9/24-28)
17t. Washington 02 (Larsen (D)) (30) (14-60) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R)) Poll: Larsen 60, Roulstone 35 (SurveyUSA 10/2-3)
Other races that one handicapper listed
21. Maryland 03 (OPEN D) (15) (21t-15) (John Sarbanes (D) vs. John White (R))
Other races not listed but with independent polling putting the Dem's lead under 20 points
Arkansas 02 (Snyder) (Vic Snyder* (D) vs. Andy Mayberry (R)) Poll: Snyder 56, Mayberry 42 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 20)
Other races to watch (says me)
Hawaii 02 (OPEN D) (Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob Hogue (R))
North Carolina 13 (Miller (D)) (Brad Miller* (D) vs. Vernon Robinson (R))