November surprise - it's very simple
Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 06:26:39 AM PDT
http://www.thenation.com/...
Looks like the November surprise is in place, Verdict on Sadam and announcement of probable death sentence in the last full news cycle before the midterms. The following is from an article by Tom Engelhardt, the Nation.
The US-backed special tribunal in Baghdad signalled Monday that it will likely delay a verdict in the first trial of Saddam Hussein to November 5. Why hasn't the mainstream media connected the dots between the Saddam's judgment day and the midterm elections?
The following quotes are from Scott Horton, adjunct professor at the Columbia University Law School.Remember, any bounce only has to last for less than 48 hours.
For sure. That November 5 date is designed to show some progress in Iraq. This is the last full news-cycle day in the US before the elections. It'll be Monday. And the American public will see Saddam condemned to death and see it as a positive thing.
"When you look at polling figures," Horton said," there have been three significant spike points. One was the date on which Saddam was captured. The second was the purple fingers election. The third was Zarqawi being killed. Based on those three, it's easy to project that they will get a mild bump out of this.
No big surprise here but it's worth noting just how far the GOP influence stretches.
As for Saddam's trial itself, I've spoken with dozens of lawyers and judges in Iraq and they have a uniformly very negative opinion of this special tribunal. Everybody -- pretty consistently across the board, and despite the fact that there's no love lost for Saddam himself--has a high level of irritation about the tribunal. Judges have said to me, `I wouldn't serve on that. I wouldn't have anything to do with it. It's a blot on our country.' Their main point of criticism is its lack of independence. There is a team of American lawyers working as special legal advisors out of the US embassy, who drive the whole thing. They have been involved in preparing the case and overseeing it from the beginning. The trial, which is shown on TV, has mild entertainment value for Iraqis, but they refer to it regularly as an American puppet theater.
I think that this is serious, remember this election will not be decided by political junkies and wonks, it's going to be decided by people for whom politics is a smaller part of their overall existence. To counter this we have to get it into the mainstream media somehow and suck the air out of it. The only way this will work for the GOP is if it is genuine surprise so we can not allow that to happen.
Don't underestimate this ploy, it may appear crude, unsubtle and desperate to us but this tactic is not aimed at us.
There is another way of viewing this of course, and that is that this is the act of a desperate GOP who know that they have already lost. I for one am going to take this seriously, If I'm wrong nothing is lost and if I am right everything could be gained.
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