Last Monday night, the editorial board of
Blanton's and Ashton's met in the basement of a private residence in Franklin Township (Somerset), New Jersey to analyze a few of the closest House and Senate races. Fortunately for all involved, there is a large and well-stocked wine cabinet in that same basement. As of 4:30 AM, October 17, 2006 that same wine cabinet was not nearly as well-stocked (the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's unanimously endorses the Kendall-Jackson Vintner's Reserve Sauvignon Blanc 2005 as a great "value" wine) and those same races were still considered tight, but the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's was decidedly looser. Or tighter. Depends on your point of view. Many of us had a good look at the ceiling.
We started with the
CQpolitics.com chart as the basis of our deliberations. We were able to get through five campaigns. We may do a few more in the next week or so. That depends on how generous our host feels with respect to the rest of his wine collection. Because the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's is intimately involved with New Jersey politics (when I say "intimate", I mean to the extent that we usually know what color underwear New Jersey politics is wearing on any given day, and it is usually blue), we started with the only two Garden State campaigns that threaten the incumbents.
New Jersey Senate
Democrat: Bob Menendez (incumbent)
Republican: Tom Kean Junior
CQpolitics.com rating: No clear favorite
This has been the least substantive campaign the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's has ever seen in our combined 6803 years of following politics. Although the Menendez campaign is issuing press releases on a daily basis, and sometimes several press releases per day, the campaign ads have focused on attacks, charges, and counter-charges. At this point, nobody on the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's has seen anything from the Kean campaign that included an actual issue, unless charging Senator Menendez with ethical lapses for actions cleared by the counsel for the House Ethics committee years ago is an issue. Visit the two campaign web sites: Kean's front page only carries attacks on Menendez and statements about corruption among Democrats. Menendez's front page is mostly his positions on issues. Although there has been no clear favorite for the better part of the summer, the Menendez campaign has an advantage in funding and seems to be gaining traction. The buzz on the street is becoming more pro-Menendez and there seems to be some mud-slinging-fatigue developing among the voters. Even the press is taking notice of the lack of substance in the campaign. The Philadelphia Inquirer recently printed an editorial complaining of the lack of substance (and endorsing Menendez). The polls are showing Menendez's campaign gaining ground and establishing a lead. The last three polls, by Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and Gallup, have all given Menendez 3 to 4 points and have also shown a diminishing number of undecideds. The competition between the Get Out the Vote efforts in Hudson County vs the Monmouth and other Republican-leaning counties will probably do more to determine the results than anything else. However, we are reluctant to discount the recent bad news for Republicans in Congress and the continuously bad news from Iraq.
The editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's puts this race at 13-12 for Menendez, and puts the over-under at 4 points. If you can get 6 points, we recommend you take it. Bodog.com, by the way, has Menendez at even money and is giving Kean 2-3. UPDATE: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Junior Kean has lent his own campaign $400,000 and received an additional $500,000 from "national Republicans". This tightens the money disparity, but does nothing to change the odds at this point. Menendez is winning most of the endorsements and the Star-Ledger noted Kean's evasiveness regarding his Iraq War position during a recent radio debate. Since most people get their debate information from the newspapers rather than listening to the actual debate, that can't be good for Junior. UPDATE: The odds at Bodog.com have changed since this was posted. They may change daily.
New Jersey House-7th District
Democrat: Linda Stender
Republican: Mike Ferguson (incumbent)
CQpolitics.com rating: Leans Republican
Ferguson won this district with little effort in 2004 and the district was not expected to be especially competitive this year. Stender was a good choice for the Democrats because she offered a clear choice in the race (as opposed to 2004, when Steve Brozak was a Republican-lite choice who hoped to appeal to voters disenchanted with the war effort at a time when disenchantment was not nearly so high). Stender has her own constituency, being a state assembly member from the state's 22nd district, and has won local races in the past. She also has had great support from the state's Democratic incumbent congressmembers, who are not being challenged seriously this year and have the opportunity to campaign on her behalf, and was able to bring in Representative John Murtha (D-PA) recently to assist in a fund-raiser. Unlike the unfortunate Brozak, while Stender cannot match Ferguson in fund-raising, she has done much better than previous challengers and has the support of the famous Emily's List, whose motto, "Early Money is Like a Yeast Infection", has always mystified the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's. We scratch our heads. We pause and purse our lips. We down another glass of the Chateauneuf-du-Pape Mont Redon 2000, which has the softest tannins we have ever tasted and which we believe can do more justice to beef than the Beringer's Founder's Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon 2001.
Stender has been gaining ground in recent weeks, with internal polling putting her campaign within the margin of error, making the race a toss-up. We are not entirely convinced. While we note Stender's successful charge and that her campaign has some momentum, we also note a very quiet media in New Jersey, where the Senate race gets all the ink and the Stender race gets next to nothing, except for those irritating radio ads on New Jersey's right-wing radio station, 101.5.
In the end, we have this one at 17-15 for Ferguson. We expect the Ferguson financial advantage to not only give him more attention in a Republican community that has already elected him three times, but also more oomph in the Get Out the Vote effort. The over-under is 7. If you get 7, it is worth the gamble, but don't bet the rent on it. Who knows what new revelations the next three weeks could bring?
Indiana House-8th District
Democrat: Brad Ellsworth
Republican: John Hostettler (incumbent)
CQpolitics.com: Leans Democrat
Elected six times to the House by the people of Indiana's 8th district, seated on the powerful House Armed Services Committee (money money money) and the powerful House Judiciary Committee, you'd think Hostettler would have his job for life. The Armed Services guys never have to leave except when they get indicted. So why does CQpolitics.com have this one as "Leans Democrat"? It is as much a mystery as how this Barrios '84 port got such a tawny color and structure. In fact, the latest poll result in the 8th puts Ellsworth 23 points ahead with only 11 percent undecided. That's not quite the lean that CQpolitics rates it. That's more like a head first tumble into the arms of the challenger, accompanied by smoochie noises and a bit of tushy grabbing. So what happened? Could it have been his vote against aid to Hurricane Katrina victims? Maybe it was the way he stayed away for a week after a tornado slammed his district while challenger Ellsworth ran the relief effort. Was it, perhaps, his being caught trying to board an aircraft with a loaded, 9mm pistol in his possession. Maybe it was his remarks about divorce being just as dangerous as gay marriage. There are certainly plenty of divorced voters in Indiana, and many of them are probably grateful to be divorced.
Ellsworth's lead has built steadily from around 4 points in early September polls to the current 23 points and there's been no good news for Hostettler. We have this one at a remarkably wide 31-19 Ellsworth advantage with the over-under at 24. We just don't see how Hostettler, who doesn't even have the money to compete with Ellsworth and who has blown every opportunity to ingratiate himself to his district, pulls anywhere closer than that. The RNCC has pulled Hostettler's fund-raising buns out of the fire in the past, but this year the RNCC is spread thinner and can't afford to pump large amounts of cash into a district they will lose anyway. So far Ellsworth has spent over a million dollars and he still has over $400,000 left. Hostettler has spent around $180,000 and has around $269,000 left.
North Carolina House-11th District
Democrat: Heath Shuler
Republican: Charles Taylor (incumbent)
CQpolitics.com rating: No clear favorite
Charles Taylor's campaign hasn't been an easy-going affair. So far he's ducked seven debates with his opponent, Heath Shuler, including a debate scheduled for Monday, October 16 to which he had agreed. It has been a bumpy ride. Taylor has out spent his opponent $3,100,000 to $930,000 or so, and $1.6 million of those dollars came from Taylor's own pocket. He has little to show for it. The liberal latte-drinkers in Asheville don't care for Taylor, but he's another one who has been in the House for a very long time, having been elected for the first time in 1990, and those boys never seem to lose their seats. Unfortunately, a lot of them don't improve with age. Not like the Sempe Armagnac 1960. We haven't even seen a bottle of it in 16 years, truth to tell. They used to have it at Fromagerie in Rumson. We would love to snuggle up to a snifter of that. Sigh
It didn't help Shuler to have the AP pick up Taylor's claim that Shuler backed out of an agreed upon debate, even though Shuler claims that he never agreed to the debate and he wouldn't agree to a debate on Sunday, for religious reasons.
With no clear favorite emerging, this one is a toss-up at the moment. However, Shuler has more money left than Taylor and money spent in the last three weeks of the campaign could be the deciding factor. One pro-Taylor factor is that voting habits die as hard as any other habits; sixteen years in the House can easily turn into eighteen. The last four polls have Shuler ahead, with the last two giving him margins of 11 and then 8 points, which are outside the margin of error. In addition, in the last three polls, Shuler attained the magic number of fifty percent. That puts him in territory where the critical "undecided" vote can't affect him. Based on that information, we take Shuler and give 7 points. We are not ready to get too happy with the points, but it is looking like less of a contest than it was. In terms of odds, call them "8 will get you 9" if you take Taylor to win.
Connecticut House-4th District
Democrat: Diane Farrell
Republican: Christopher Shays (incumbent)
CQpolitics.com rating: No favorite
Why would someone with nearly twenty years in the House, having been through so many elections, stand up during a debate and dismiss the Abu Ghraib torture scandal as just a "sex ring", like they were all naughty boys and girls messin' around in the basement? And why would someone do that in anti-Iraq War Connecticut, a state that may unseat it's own incumbent Democratic Senator because of his pro-war stance? We don't think Chris Shays is stupid, but we think he said something that is stupid and hope it was just a matter of too many pre-debate martinis, you know, just to take the edge off. If you're going to drink before a debate, we recommend you stick to something lighter, like a pinot grigio. Do not drink red wine before a debate. You don't want a dry mouth when you're debating.
This race has elements of a Zale-Graziano bout, and Shays seems to be on the ropes. Farrell lost to Shays in 2004 by 4 points, but Shays is not performing well this year while Farrell has the benefit of the general disdain for Republicans that polls say is running strong across the country. At a time like this, it doesn't pay for an incumbent to be dismissive about issues like Abu Ghraib. Normally people don't pay much attention to congressional debates, but even the editorial board of Blanton's and Ashton's, confined as we are to the hinterlands of New Jersey and this increasingly charming basement, know about that gaffe. Not that it was a knockout punch he delivered to himself. Farrell still hasn't come up with a knockout punch.
Ultimately, in this tight race, we see Diane Farrell pulling away with a comfortable margin of victory. Nothing gaudy, but enough daylight between herself and her opponent to avoid a recount. 13-12 are the odds and the over-under is a flat 4 points. There is polling data at MyDD.com that puts Farrell ahead 44-41%. We are sticking with our original numbers, but you could take Farrell and give five points without feeling stupid even if you miss.