Another strangely quiet day in the polling world today, as one more day passes without any national polling on either the Bush job approval numbers or the generic ballot test. For what it is worth, Rasmussen reports a one-point drop in the Presidents job approval to 42%.
Meanwhile, we do get some individual numbers today, and for the first time in a month, there is more good news for the Republicans today than there is good news for the Democrats, according to my analysis of polling momentum.
Go across the threshold for the numbers in a grand total of 19 individual races.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
AR-02: Rep. Snyder (D) 57%, Mayberry (R) 42% [Neutral]
This SurveyUSA poll, which broke yesterday evening, gives us almost identical margins from last month in this race which is on virtually no one's radar screen. It looks like Vic Snyder will win with his accustomed 58-42 margin of victory (isn't that what he gets every year??!!!??).
CO-03: Rep. Salazar (D) 60%, Tipton (R) 32% [Dems]
CAVEAT: this is a Democratic poll, done for the Salazar campaign by Azalone-Liszt. Given the rightward lean of the district, I am not buying a 28-point lead. That said, I also don't think that this race is on anyone's watch list in Washington anymore. John Salazar has done a solid job nailing down a red district for the Democrats.
CO-05: Lamborn (R) 51%, Fawcett (D) 38% [GOP]
This SurveyUSA poll, which broke late last night, reminds us that this is an awfully tough district for Democrats, no matter how controversial the GOP nominee. Seriously, guys, this would be like getting a Republican elected in Marin County, California. Fawcett is dominating among Democrats and Independents. The problem is: there are more Republicans than Dems or Indies COMBINED.
CT-GOV: Gov. Rell (R) 59%, DeStefano (D) 33% [Neutral]
This Quinnipiac poll shows some tightening from the last Q poll, but it is in line with other recent polls from other outlets. Rell is not going to win by over 70% of the vote like some GOPers originally thought, but she has always been a betting favorite to win by double digits.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CFL) 52%, Lamont (D) 35% [GOPish]
This Quinnipiac poll, taken after the first debate, is pretty devastating all the way around. Lamont has seen his support erode, and the predicted Schlesinger boomlet has failed to materialize (he gets 6% in this poll). Lamont needs a poll showing a major turnaround within the next 7-10 days, or the obituaries will be written in permanent marker.
CT-02: Rep. Simmons (R) 46%, Courtney (D) 44% [Neutral]
This tossup race in the Nutmeg State stubbornly continues to be a tossup race. A good note for Dems--Simmons has an initial four-point lead, that fades to two points when people are leaned on to name a pick. In other words, uncommitted voters are appearing to pick the Democcrat in this race. With 10% of the voters still undeclared in this UConn poll, this is awfully good news.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 57%, Harris (R) 31% [Dems]
My favorite two items from this Mason-Dixon poll: (1) Nelson still has job approval hovering around 50%. He is not beloved, and had Harris not won the GOP nod, this could be a real contest for the Democrats. (2) The news release on this poll said that "like every other poll that shows her trailing," Team Harris is disputing the accuracy of the poll. Ah...sweet denial.
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 47%, Taylor (D) 30% [Neutral]
After the Insider Advantage tracking poll showed Taylor gaining in the last few weeks, this edition of the tracking poll shows the race stabilizing. With Hayes still getting 9% of the vote as the Libertarian candidate, Taylor is running out of options here.
IN-07: Dickerson (R) 45%, Rep. Carson (D) 42% [GOP]
I think I know which survey will win my daily "Holy S**t Poll of the Day" contest, don't you? This poll, by Selzer and Associates for WTHR, is a real shocker, given that no one is tracking this race closely. A few caveats: Carson never wins big (her biggest vote total was 58%), and she always polls poorly for some reason. That said, Indianapolis-area Dems now have something on their radar screen, I would imagine.
MT-SEN: Tester (D) 49%, Burns (R) 46% [GOP]
This is the first poll in quite a while to show significant tightening of the race. The poll (which comes to us from Rasmussen) might be a lone dissenter, but if not, I am glad to see that Tester appears to have the resources to fight till the finish, and that the DSCC has an enormous late cash advantage over the NRSC.
MT-AL: Rep. Rehberg (R) 53%, Lindeen (D) 30% [GOP]
This Montana State poll is disturbing on two levels. For one, the Rehberg lead is actually out a couple of extra points over recent polling. Second, the MSU poll was awfully good for Tester (an eleven-point edge), which means (if it was too optimistic) that the margin could be evern wider than this. No one had Lindeen winning here, but I thought it would be more competitive than this....
NE-GOV: Gov. Heineman (R) 70%, Hahn (D) 22% [GOP]
How bad is this race? I am one of the foremost political geeks in all of the land and I had to look up the name of Heineman's Democratic opponent!! It is David Hahn, by the way. This Rasmussen poll confirms that it is a Heineman vs. Spitzer duel for the biggest asskicking in the nation this year among governor's races.
NE-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 54%, Ricketts (R) 34% [GOP]
This race has tightened just a little, according to the Rasmussen poll, but it does not appear that it will tighten enough for either party to take it seriously on Election Day. Nelson has maintained a 50%+ vote, and a twenty point lead or more, throughout the cycle.
PA-GOV: Gov. Rednell (D) 56%, Swann (R) 32% [Dems]
This new poll from Triad Research and Susquehanna Polling, was conducted two weeks ago, but released today, for some odd reason. Just the same, Rendell is dominating this race, only losing in the heavily Republican exurbs of Pittsburgh. Rendell even leads in the "T" in central PA. This could be a rout, although I still predict some tightening here.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 54%, Sen. Santorum (R) 34% [Dems]
Speaking of potential routs, the Triad/Susquehanna poll in this race shows Casey with one of his biggest polling leads to date. One has to wonder how much longer the NRSC will continue throwing punches in this race, since they seem to be having little effect.
RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 50%, Fogarty (D) 42% [GOP]
A slight widening of the edge of Don Carcieri, in a race that seems to be marked by pretty strong momentum shifts. A race like this, and you begin to wonder if it going to come down to who holds the ball last. This poll, taken for WPRI by Fleming and Associates, is a slight stretch on the previous 5-point lead Carcieri had with the same pollster.
RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 46%, Sen. Chafee (R) 42% [Neutral]
If the governors race in Rhode Island has been marked by volatile polling, the Senate race is the opposite. Since the primaries, Sheldon Whitehouse has settled into a slight, but remarkably consistent, lead. This poll by Fleming and Associates is in the same 3-7 point margin that virtually every poll in this race has had for two months.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 51%, McGavick (R) 42% [GOP]
After a couple of polls in the double digits, the people over at Strategic Vision (a GOP pollster, but one that does public releases) have this race now at nine points. My own personal projection on this race has been frozen at nine points for...what...three years now??!!??
WI-GOV: Gov. Doyle (D) 48%, Green (R) 44% [GOP]
A day after Saint Norberts College implied a real incumbent lead here, Rasmussen comes in today to pour cold water on the Jim Doyle victory party. That said, Doyle still has a lead, and it has been a while since Green has had a nonpartisan poll even showing him within 3 points.
And...that wraps the books on the Friday edition of FTP. I don't know if it is my computer or Kos playing with the servers, but it has been a pain in the rear to do this today (very slow response time for loading and even inputting the diary). So...I will not make it a long goodbye today. As always: rec it if you liked it!!