NY-13, Flipping the Thirteenth
Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 10:31:36 PM PDT
I have been a little optimistic lately regarding this race. A little too optimistic were I an outside observer and not a local blogger. I guess that is why we have professionals analyze these races, and that would explain why Rep. Fossella has stayed as a 'safe republican' seat since he won his special election back in 1997. Afterall someone who knows a thing or two had this to say
about the race;
The only relatively safe Republicans in NY this cycle are perhaps John McHugh in the 23rd and Vito Fossella in the 13th.
Tonight was the fourth of five debates between Rep. Fossella and Stephen Harrison (D-Superhero*), which essentially is free publicity for Harrison and a chance for him to
embarass an incumbent Republican;
Later in the debate, the crowd and my opponent got quite a surprise after he'd spoken about ensuring the safety of first responders and insinuated that I would not protect them. Fossella left himself wide open on that one. In my rebuttal, I asked if there was an EMT in the room and was able to point to my daughter. She reminded everyone in the room that she's married to a police officer. Think I'm not looking out for my kids?
The local political writer for the Staten Island Advance, not always known for it's adequete coverage of the race, quipped;
Democratic congressional candidate Steve Harrison was certainly ready for his close-up this week, engaging in two highly contentious forums on Monday with his opponent, GOP Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn).
Speaking with a fervor that he has thus far rarely displayed on the campaign trail, Harrison lambasted Fossella on everything from the Iraq war to terrorist interrogations, the Bush administration wiretapping program and Social Security.
Two days ago I wrote this diary about Fossella's campaign pre-releasing their latest direct mail piece to RedState.com and put out a plea for money.
Stuff started adding up. These are not the acts of an incumbent member of Congress who feels safe. CQpolitics had this summation of the race to date;
On paper, the contest looks like a mismatch, and Fossella still is highly likely to win Nov. 7. He spent $1 million on the race through September and had another $440,000 on hand. Democrat Harrison was funding his first major campaign with $11,000 left in his coffers by Sept. 30, having spent a rather minimal $82,000 throughout his campaign.
And I don't disagree, considering the Democratic challenger in 2004, Frank Barbaro, raised $425,000 in what would be the closest anyone has come to knocking this guy off, winning 41%. Frank defined his race with the following commentary;
The issues that I'm running on are progressive issues based upon workers' rights, anti-war, pro-environment, pro-gay and lesbian rights and people said that that would not fly on Staten Island. Staten Island is considered a bastion of right wing thinking. Democrats cannot win on Staten Island, that Republicans control it, and will control it forever. My theory is that this is a test tube case where someone with labor support, a broad-based coalition, can run in that state - in that Congressional district and do well or possibly win. That would have an effect on the party nationally. That's why I made the race, and I'm just ecstatic, because the message resonated and has been resonating among blue collar workers on Staten Island, so much so that a recent poll came out that showed Fossella, the right wing candidate and myself, are in a dead heat. So, with very little money, I think we have won. Whether I win or lose on Tuesday night, we have invigorated the labor movement. We have proven that if the labor movement comes together and supports a progressive candidate that can appeal to the blue collar workers and white collar workers on Staten Island, that they can win. That it could change the soul of the Democratic party. I think we have already accomplished that.
So as I was reading that, and researching other topics for my blog about this race NY-13, my RSS reader refreshed and so to did CQPolitics with this gem, which in and of itself is a victory;
With New York 13 hardly immune to the volatile political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.
All the same, there is the slight chance Harrison could threaten an upset in such an advantageous year for the Democrats. "Anything can happen," Sheinkopf said. "He's working hard and he's hitting the bricks."
Not bad right? After all he is in some good company in that Republican Favored column; Busby, Charlie Brown, Dan Seals, Yarmuth, Mejias and some other people you may have heard of. (Is this list really up to date?) And so again, this is why we compete in every race and why our Democratic challengers this year really are from the land of superheroes. While we are trying to get incumbent Dems to part with their money, people like Steve are forcing Fossella to spend nearly $1.5 million in this district, fifteen times what his opponent will probably spend. But more importantly Steve is showing that Frank Barbaro's words ring true.
Ladies and Gentlemen this seat is no longer SAFE REPUBLICAN and that makes me feel good.
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If you want to volunteer, and that at this point will be more valuable than cash, call the office:
Staten Island H.Q.
370-A Forest Avenue, Staten Island, NY 10301
718-720-8683
Brooklyn H.Q.
544 Bay Ridge Parkway, Brooklyn, NY 11209
718-836-0760
* Superhero - is the land where Democratic challengers come from this year, taking up the call to run for office
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