Here's a look at the current Senate situation; I think the news is mixed.
More below the fold
I went over to Pollster.com, and looked at their data for each key Senate race. Summaries by race:
Arizona:
Averages of both the last 5 and last 10 show Kyl (R) up by 9 points over Pederson. No Sept. or Oct. poll shows this one close. If there's a tidal wave, it could sweep Kyl out, but this is a longshot
Conneeticut
Every poll shows Lieberman winning, but I think he will stay with the Dems.
Maryland
Average of last 10 shows Cardin (D) up by 7. Average of last 5 shows him up by only 5. The bad news is that the polls showing Cardin winning easily are Zogby polls. The good news is that the closeness is mostly due to a single SUSA poll showing the race even. A key race.
Minnesota
This race was close, once upon a time. But all recent polls show an easy win for Klobuchar (D). Average of last 10 shows her up by 12, and growing slightly. It looks even better when you delete the Zogby polls, and esp. good that Mason Dixon's last poll showed her up by 15
Missouri
Last 10 polls and last 5 both show McGaskill up by 1. Close close close. Of the polls in Sept and Oct., though, there were 4 that showed Talent (R) with more than a 1 point lead. All were Zogby.
Montana
Average of last 10 polls shows Tester (D) up by 6; last 5 shows him up by 7. This should be good.
New Jersey
Average of last 10 polls shows Memendez (D) up by 2; average of last 5 shows him up by 5. Eveb better, that includes a Zogby interactive poll showing Menendez losing by 2.
Nevada
Every poll shows Carter (D) losing big.....a real shame. This is a super-longshot
Ohio
Another race that was close, once. Average of last 10 polls shows Brown (D) up by 7, average of last 5 shows him up by 9. Only 3 polls in Sept. or Oct. show it within 3 points, and 2 were Zogby
Pennsylvania
I will dance with glee hearing Santorum concede. Every recent poll shows Casey (D) winning. Average of last 10 and last 5 both show him winning by 11 points. Will it be double digits?
Rhode Island
Another race where the trend is our way. Average of last 10 shows Whitehourse (D) up by 4, average of last 5 shows him up by 6. The last poll to show Chaffee (R) ahead was in August.
Tennessee
A key race. Average of last 10 and average of last 5 both show it dead even. The good news? OF the 4 September and October polls that show Corker with more than a 1 point lead, 3 were Zogby
Virginia
What the heck happened? Allen (R) is a racist jackass, and the momentum is all his way.....Average of last 5 shows Allen up by 5, average of last 10 shows him up by 4. The trendlines reverse right around Oct 1, showing what was looking very good for us starting to look good for them. Maybe this one can turn around in the last weeks.
Hope this was helpful.