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Here's a look at the current Senate situation; I think the news is mixed.  

More below the fold

I went over to Pollster.com, and looked at their data for each key Senate race.  Summaries by race:

Arizona:
  Averages of both the last 5 and last 10 show Kyl (R) up by 9 points over Pederson.  No Sept. or Oct. poll shows this one close.  If there's a tidal wave, it could sweep Kyl out, but this is a longshot

Conneeticut
   Every poll shows Lieberman winning, but I think he will stay with the Dems.  

Maryland
   Average of last 10 shows Cardin (D) up by 7.  Average of last 5 shows him up by only 5.  The bad news is that the polls showing Cardin winning easily are Zogby polls.  The good news is that the closeness is mostly due to a single SUSA poll showing the race even.  A key race.

Minnesota
   This race was close, once upon a time.  But all recent polls show an easy win for Klobuchar (D).  Average of last 10 shows her up by 12, and growing slightly.  It looks even better when you delete the Zogby polls, and esp. good that Mason Dixon's last poll showed her up by 15

Missouri
   Last 10 polls and last 5 both show McGaskill up by 1.  Close close close.  Of the polls in Sept and Oct., though, there were 4 that showed Talent (R) with more than a 1 point lead.  All were Zogby.

Montana
   Average of last 10 polls shows Tester (D) up by 6; last 5 shows him up by 7.  This should be good.

New Jersey
   Average of last 10 polls shows Memendez (D) up by 2; average of last 5 shows him up by 5.  Eveb better, that includes a Zogby interactive poll showing Menendez losing by 2.  

Nevada
   Every poll shows Carter (D) losing big.....a real shame.  This is a super-longshot

Ohio
   Another race that was close, once.  Average of last 10 polls shows Brown (D) up by 7, average of last 5 shows him up by 9.  Only 3 polls in Sept. or Oct. show it within 3 points, and 2 were Zogby

Pennsylvania
   I will dance with glee hearing Santorum concede.  Every recent poll shows Casey (D) winning.  Average of last 10 and last 5 both show him winning by 11 points.  Will it be double digits?

Rhode Island
   Another race where the trend is our way.  Average of last 10 shows Whitehourse (D) up by 4, average of last 5 shows him up by 6.  The last poll to show Chaffee (R) ahead was in August.

Tennessee
   A key race.  Average of last 10 and average of last 5 both show it dead even.  The good news? OF the 4 September and October polls that show Corker with more than a 1 point lead, 3 were Zogby

Virginia
   What the heck happened?  Allen (R) is a racist jackass, and the momentum is all his way.....Average of last 5 shows Allen up by 5, average of last 10 shows him up by 4.  The trendlines reverse right around Oct 1, showing what was looking very good for us starting to look good for them.  Maybe this one can turn around in the last weeks.  

Hope this was helpful.

Originally posted to plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 06:07 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip jar (13+ / 0-)

    You know, for tips.

    Comments, recommends, all welcome.

    I will be in and out today, but will read all comments, and give out mojo freely, and respond where appropriate.

    Republicans support the war. Democrats support the troops.

    by plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 06:07:21 AM PDT

  •  My guess is the Pubs are conceding the House (3+ / 0-)

    And putting as much effort as possible in shoring up their control of the Senate.

    and that these orders come from the White House.

    So long as it's a GOP senate, the Pubs will have everything they want: An unimpaired Bush presidency, unbothered by impeachment and removal proceedngs, and capable of blocking, over and over again, anything that comes out of a Democratic House.

    I'm seeing...constitutional crisis on the way.

    Somewhere out there, George Washington is wondering why he even bothered.

    by cskendrick on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 06:16:27 AM PDT

  •  If trends hold (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flatford39, plf515

    we'll keep NJ and MD, we'll pickup OH, RI, PA and MT, we'll probably lose VA and TN and MO is a tossup...but if there's a wave, we'll stand a good shot at MO, a 50/50 shot at TN and 3:1 in VA...

    Either way you slice it, we'll be getting rid of a few real über-conservative horror-shows and replacing them with solid progressives, so the nature of the senate will improve somewhat.

    --------
    If the internet makes you cry, stay OFF it.

    by PBJ Diddy on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 06:17:37 AM PDT

    •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

      Things will definitely get better.  Just getting rid of Santorum assures us that things will get better.

      But how much better?  Nov. 7 may be a long night

      Republicans support the war. Democrats support the troops.

      by plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 06:53:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Right now that is what I see as well. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515

      Ford in Tennessee is intriguing and I think he has run a very good campaign but I just don't trust the voters of Tennessee to come out in the numbers Ford will need to win.

      Webb on the other hand I just can't figure out. By all rights he should be 10 points up but is falling behind.

      I think both these states will remain red although I give Ford a little better chance of winning than I do Webb.

  •  the WaPo has an encouraging story this morning. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Democrats Strengthen Chances For SenateVa., Mo. and Tenn. May Tip the Balance

    Democrats in the past two weeks have significantly improved their chances of taking control of the Senate, according to polls and independent analysts, with the battle now focused intensely on three states in the Midwest and upper South: Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia...

    Democratic challengers are in strong positions against GOP incumbents in four states -- Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island -- a trend that leaves the party looking for just two more seats to reclaim the majority. The main targets are states where Republicans in recent years have dominated but this year find themselves in hotly competitive races.

    New on EWM Freedom Is as Freedom Does

    •  Those are clearly the key (0+ / 0-)

      races.

      I put our chances in Missouri at 63%, Tennessee at 50, and Virginia at 5.  Virginia is the outlier here, clearly --- I hope the polls are wrong there, but don't see a compelling reason to think so

      Just looking at these 3, we can figure

      Get all 3 = .63 * .5 * .05  = .02
      Get MO and TN = .63*.5*.95  = .30
      Get MO and VA = .63*.5*.05  = .02
      Get TN and VA = .37*.5*.05 = .01

      Get 2 or 3 = 34%

      which matches nicely with results of simulation, since the simulation adds in the chance of losing one of the other races.

      Republicans support the war. Democrats support the troops.

      by plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 07:14:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree on Va. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ord avg guy, plf515

        I'm in MD., but also in the Northern Virginia media market. Allen has a new ad up on taxes that's crap and not very well produced, but it does contain a sound bite from Webb saying "we're kidding ourselves if we don't think we need more revenue."

        Ouch, considering hardly anyone knows Webb, that hurts. That said, Arlington, Alexandria and that area will run up big margins for Webb. Maybe if the Bible belt part of the state doesn't turn out, it might make the difference.

  •  Simulation results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dmsilev, ignorant bystander

    based on above, and 3% MOE

    Gain 1 seat    0.01%
    Gain 2 seats   0.15
    Gain 3 seats   3.14
    Gain 4 seats  22.23
    Gain 5 seats  45.69
    Gain 6 seats  27.20
    Gain 7 seats   1.58

    Republicans support the war. Democrats support the troops.

    by plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 07:07:03 AM PDT

  •  Connecticut (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Lieberman will not contribute to the dems' majority. He will either caucus with republicans or resign to work with Bush and Rell the republican governor will appoint a republican to senate. If Lieberman wins - the dems lose a seat. I don't regret the primary challenge, but Lamont will need all the help we can give him...

    I'm not ready to make nice... (Dixie Chicks)

    by grrr on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 09:14:06 AM PDT

    •  I don't think either is likely (0+ / 0-)

      Whatever his problems, Lieberman is a Democrat, and always has been.  I also don't think the Bushites will nominate him for anything.

      Republicans support the war. Democrats support the troops.

      by plf515 on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 12:19:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ Poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Today's poll shows 9 point lead for Menendez.

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