The silence has been broken, at least a bit, as we head into the final two weeks of Campaign 2006. Today we get SIX new national polls to mull over (including a breaking bombshell of a survey, as well as updates in
16 individual races.
A couple of interesting poll dynamics today, with none of them proving to be particularly good for the GOP. In the fifteen races today, only three of them show a momentum shift to the GOP (and one of the three is an internal poll). In total, ten of them indicate Democratic momentum, and two of them indicate neutral momentum.
All the numbers for your digestive pleasure...right on the other side of the jump.
NATIONAL POLLING
New numbers on the docket today from five national polls, with just two of them testing both the Bush job approval rating AND the generic congressional ballot test.
COOK/RT STRATEGIES
This just in! And it is a total bombshell. The Cook Report sponsors a poll, done by the bipartisan group RT Strategies, and the numbers are unbelievable. Among a subset of voters called "Most Likely Voters", the Democrats hold a 22-point lead on the generic ballot test (57-35). Among registered voters, that number is at twelve percent (49-37). The message, of course, is clear, Democratic voters are fired up, and Republican turnout is depressed. In either the RV or LV sample, the Bush job approval is the same: 37%.
ABC/WAPO
Usually among the most GOP-friendly pollsters, the numbers for the Republicans in the ABC/WaPo survey have taken a less than pleasant turn. The new ABC/WaPo poll, conducted over the weekend, has the Bush job approval at 37% with disapproval at 60%. At the height of the Foley hysteria, the numbers were 39% approval with 60% disapproval.
Meanwhile, in the last two weeks, we see that the Democratic edge in the generic ballot has actually widened slightly, with an important new twist. During "Foley Week", the Democrats held a 54-41 lead among registered voters. That margin is unchanged in this poll, but when LIKELY voters are screened, the margin actually expands to 14 points (55-41).
CNN
CNN's new poll gives Bush a little recovery on job approval, but still has him in the 30s. The new CNN poll has President Bush at 39% job approval (last week was 36%). However, the generic ballot has actually gotten incrementally worse for the GOP. Last week, among likely voters, the CNN poll had the race at 16 points (56-40). Today, the edge for Democrats is 17 points (57-40).
SURVEYUSA
I missed this in the polling from last week, but SurveyUSA continued its monthly 50-state tracking of the President's job approval. This month sees his approval slide down two points, to 37% job approval. SurveyUSA did not conduct a generic congressional ballot.
USA TODAY/GALLUP
Strangely, Gallup elected NOT to do the Bush numbers in their weekend polling. They did, however, look at the generic ballot test. Since their two previous generics (among likely voters) had the Democratic lead at 0 and 23 points, respectively, it was probably fitting that this week's poll had it somewhere in the middle: Democrats leading by 13 points: 54-41. Worth noting, Gallup noted that this was exactly where the Republicans were in 1994 before the tsunami election that swept them into power.
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
ARG also polls nationally this weekend, but they focused on economic polling, as well as the Bush job approval numbers. Bush polled at 36% job approval, which is a drop of two points since September.
So, for those of you scoring at home, the six polls that measured Bush's job approval (I am including the weekend Newsweek poll) over the last few days find Bush sitting on 36.8% job approval. Meanwhile, if you amalgamate the five generic ballot tests during the same time period, you get the following result--Democrats at 55.6%, Republicans at 38.8%. An edge of 16.8%.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
AZ-05: Rep. Hayworth (R) 47%, Mitchell (D) 46% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Mitchell campaign by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. Although this is considered by most to be a Tier-2 pickup opportunity, due to the vast Hayworth warchest, and the GOP terrain, this race is intriguing me more and more. Mitchell, simply put, is not going away. Interesting to see how the S.C. ruling on voter ID requirements here will effect this race. Could it keep poor and Latino voters at home, or could it hurt the elderly voters who probably tend conservative in a district like the Arizona 5th?
CA-04: Rep. Doolittle (R) 51%, Brown (D) 41% [GOP]
This SurveyUSA poll gives Doolittle a slightly loftier advantage than the recent MajorityWatch series. Also problematic for Brown--a Libertarian candidate is pulling 5% here, meaning that even if Brown can drag Doolittle under 50%, there is no guarantee of victory here.
CO-GOV: Ritter (D) 56%, Beauprez (R) 38% [Dems]
According to SurveyUSA, former Denver DA Bill Ritter just continues to pull away in this race, as he now leads Congressman Bob Beauprez by 18 points. Earlier, SUSA polled Coloradans on the controversy over the Beauprez attack ad which might have illegally used crime information. Over 70% of voters were aware of it, and over 30% said it changed their opinion on who to vote for. It is pretty clear that the backlash is beating the original charge in terms of "effect."
FL-GOV: (2 polls) Crist (R) 50%, Davis (D) 40% [Dems]
The reason I score this as Dem momentum is simple--this is a combination of an independent poll (by Quinnipiac) which has the race at two points (46-44) and a sponsored poll (done for the Chamber of Commerce) which has Crist up by 18 points (54-36). Given the recent movement in both the Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls, I can't help but discount the Chamber poll a little bit.
IL-GOV: Gov. Blagojevich (D) 44%, Topinka (R) 34% [Dems]
According to SurveyUSA, Blago now has the lead back at double digits. One interesting note, as it was consistent throughout the SUSA polling today, is a marked increase in support for third party bids. According to the SUSA poll, Whitney (Green) now polls at 14% of the vote. Trend or blip? We'll need another poll to confirm. One practical effect here, and a positive one for the Democrats, is that Blagojevich can now win with 45% of the vote.
IN-09: Hill (D) 47%, Rep. Sodrel (R) 43% [Dems]
A slight movement in the Democrat's favor here, as Hill doubles his narrow lead from the previous poll by this outfit (SurveyUSA). Again, we see an independent candidate spiking in numbers (Schlossberg, a Libertarian, is polling at 5%). This is taking away some of the undecideds Sodrel is going to need to make a comeback here.
IA-GOV: Culver (D) 49%, Nussle (R) 45% [Neutral]
This Rasmussen poll (gee, they have been kinda quiet as of late) confirms the narrow, but firm, lead that Chet Culver has established in Iowa. Interesting, when leaners were pushed, Culver got the disproportionate share of the leaners here. My take would have been they would have gone with Nussle, who is a little bit more dynamic as a campaigner.
IA-03: Rep. Boswell (D) 52%, Lamberti (R) 32% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Boswell campaign by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. Let me say for the record--I'll be pretty well shocked if Boswell wins on Election Day by 20 points. I honestly do not expect him to win by double digits. But this poll shows a real gap developing. I'll be curious to see any new independent numbers (or Lamberti numbers) in the next few days. Both party committees were still playing here as of last week, so that told me this race was a helluva lot closer than 20.
ME-GOV: Gov. Baldacci (D) 42%, Woodcock (R) 34% [Dems]
This is the second poll to confirm that Baldacci has solidified a narrow lead in this race. This SurveyUSA poll also has a surge for third-party candidates, as left-leaning Independents Barbara Merill and Pat LaMarche combine for a whopping 21% of the vote (Merill at 12%, LaMarche at 9%). This is not TOO unusual for Maine, which did hand its governorship to an Indie candidate from 1995 to 2003.
NE-01: Rep. Fortenberry (R) 58%, Moul (D) 36% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, taken for the Fortenberry campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. Enjoy this internal poll with your favorite salt, since P.O.S seems to have a knack this cycle for releasing partisan polls that are almost immediately refuted by public or independent polling. Happened with Gerlach in PA-06. Happened even worse with Weldon in PA-07. Could it be happening again here in Nebraska. Between Moul, Esch, and Kleeb, there is a little buzz in the air in Nebraska, one of the reddest of the red states.
NM-01: Madrid (D) 45%, Rep. Wilson (R) 42% [Neutral]
This Albuquerque Journal poll is the third consecutive non-partisan poll showing Democrat Patricia Madrid leading four-term incumbent Heather Wilson. It is also the only time the Journal poll has ever had a Democrat leading in the 1st Congressional District. The general consensus is that if Wilson loses, a lot of marginal Republicans must be in trouble, as well. She is usually well positioned to hold her seat, albeit narrowly.
OH-13: Sutton (D) 56%, Foltin (R) 33% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the Sutton campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Unlike most of the Republican internals we have seen recently, which seem to be far afield of both conventional wisdom and public polling would indicate, most (not all) of the Democratic polling has tracked pretty close to both. A SUSA poll earlier in the cycle had Sutton leading by 18. The NRCC left the district for dead a couple of weeks ago. I don't know if Sutton will win by 23, but I fully expect her to win easily.
PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 57%, Swann (R) 37% [Dems]
This poll, by the Republican outfit Strategic Vision, pretty well confirms that this race (for all intents and purposes) is a done deal. Good to know ya, Swannie, and hope to see you on the sidelines of college football games soon.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 49%, Sen. Santorum (R) 42% [GOP]
A mini-caveat here: while this is not an internal poll by Santorum or the NRSC, this is a Republican pollster (Strategic Vision), and their numbers tend to be (a) less volatile; and (b) more prone to overstating Republican support than most pollsters.
PA-10: Carney (D) 52%, Rep. Sherwood (R) 37% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the Carney campaign by Momentum Research. It has been a good, long while since we have seen a poll showing the incumbent leading in this district. Several Democratic/Carney internals, plus a small smattering of public polls, all give Carney a lead. Is this national climate, or can the effects of one singular sex scandal be this overwhelming, even in nominally Republican rural Pennsylvania?
VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 47%, Webb (D) 43% [Neutral]
So, the respected Mason/Dixon polling outfit has this race at four points. That is a slight improvement for Allen over the last MD poll, but it is also narrower than the 6-7 point leads we have seen in some recent polling by other outfits. Yet another Senate tossup--GOTV and Election Day Momentum are going to be of paramount importance.
And...that closes the book on a rapidly expanding edition of FTP (I started typing with just nine polls in hand, it doubled in size in one hour). Updates are possible, but until then, enjoy the buffet. And, as always, rec it if you liked it!!