It's awful for my political involvement that the height of campaign season also comes at midterm time and when my kids' evening activities are going full-blast. I only got a few canvassing visits in over the last 2 weeks. Yikes! But everyone can still chip in, and thing are trending up... serious analysis on the flip.
I'm cautious about the Q-poll that shows the Florida governor's race essentially tied. Since we don't know about the internals of the poll, we really don't know if their "likely voter" model is correct. It smells closer to about a 6-8% gap to me. That's doable, definitely, but it requires considerable work and cash, in Florida. See below for the e-mail address for Bill Nelson's campaign, which needs to chip in Big Moolah to the state party to build any momentum. It's sad when there's less of a ground game to work on, but we're a major media state for statewide campaign. Ugh, but that's life for now. (See my
previous analysis of the state of Florida for how we got this way. It'll take more than a single campaign to turn it around.)
The campaign has at least two possible aces up its sleeve. One possible ace might be a planned huge influx of cash from the Nelson campaign, timed to upend a close race close to the election. I have no idea whether Nelson is that selfless, but I hope so. (I also think it's not as wise as dumping in money about 10 days ago, because early voting has already started.)
The other ace up the campaign's sleeve is the fact that Charlie Crist was Florida's Education Commissioner 2001-2003, when the state legislature passed a corporate tax-credit voucher scheme with no accountability, whereby hundreds of thousands of dollars was stolen from the state. I'd argue that Charlie was asleep at the wheel, not paying attention when the bill came up, and not even suggesting a fix the next legislative session (they're called "glitch bills" in Florida when a screw-up needs to be fixed). But, again, that ideally would have been raised as a topic about 10 days ago. Or maybe in the debate tomorrow. We'll see.
It's definitely crunch time.
In FL-09, this is still a sleeper. Phyllis just got the two local daily endorsements (including our conservative paper), and I have no feeling for this one whatsoever. Phyllis is dynamic, and I just get the sense that she'll do reasonably well here in Hillsborough, Gus Bilirakis will win parts of Pinellas, and who knows where the real battleground might be.
I've donated to both tonight. Will you? The real tip jars are for the candidates:
Update: My letter to Senator Nelson:
Dear Senator Nelson,
Congrats on the solid debate performance. The comeback on Riscorp was snappy and showed your competence.
Your reelection is now assured. Can you support other Democrats in the state, now that your race is essentially over? We know that Jim Davis and the cabinet-level races need a cash inflow. You have a huge election fund, and you can transfer significant amounts to the Florida Democratic Party without causing you any pain whatsoever. Even if you donate 30%, you will boost the party's chances in the statewide races, and you'll still have plenty for a last-week afterburner.
I got off my duff tonight, after the debate, and donated to Jim Davis and Phyllis Busansky. Will you do the same and support the Democratic Party?
Yours,...