TX-14: Polls?

Polling is rarely an accurate reflection of how the actual vote will come out, but it does help with seeing trends.  These trends, in turn, are a great motivation to some of the most important people in the campaign: the volunteer.

I'm no Shane Sklar insider or anything, but I (and a few fellow Dems in my area) try to help out in any way that I can.  But since I'm not in constant contact with the Sklar campaign, outside of the email list and various functions, I tend to rely on local newspapers and websites to get information on how it's going.  Sadly, that information is almost zero...

It was great to see Victoria's newspaper give their endorsement to Sklar, and it was also great to see the DCCC give us some legitimacy by including Sklar in their Emerging Races.  But my questions are: How did the DCCC make that determination? And why don't they let us in on it?

So far, the only polling I've seen about TX-14 is from a vague poll done by Sklar, which basically just shows that people would vote for someone besides Ron Paul.  Now that early voting is underway, and we're less than two weeks away from election day, I'm immensely curious about WHERE WE ARE.  

If the internals are bad, let us know!  We'll work harder.  If they're good, we'll know we're making a difference.  But this total lack of info could easily become disheartening... the campaign should really let it's volunteers and the PUBLIC know what's going on.  

The lack of internal polling could be financial, since I know Sklar hasn't even broken $500K.  So hopefully, the DCCC recognition and the support of Paul Begala will help get this race a little more recognized... a little more money... and God-willing, a POLL or two.

•  Been waiting for that poll all election cycle

  I guess it's just not the way we do things on the Middle Coast of Texas.

  If it makes you feel any better, Shane has been spoken well of in the papers in Victoria and even the The Facts in Brazoria, which is Ron Paul's stronghold.

  I have no idea whats going on in Chamber County, since they are clear on the other side of Houston and I am still wondering what we are doing together in a district.

  If you find one, please let me know.

  Shane should carry Matagorda and Victoria, I see Ron Paul carrying Brazoria. I think the toss up will be Chamber, a place I vaguely know.

  by pinche tejano on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 08:57:22 AM PDT

  •  Shane will also carry

    Jackson, Wharton, and the part of Fort Bend included in TX-14.

    by rocketito on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:07:55 AM PDT

•  Don't let it distract you

  Where we are in TX-14 is pretty much where we are in most of Texas.

  We have to get our vote out.  The deck is stacked against us in almost every race.  We know that, and even the most promising poll numbers won't change that in anything but degree.

  Thanks for your hard work, and keep it up.

  by boadicea on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 08:57:40 AM PDT

  •  When did we get grouped with Chamber County?

    I noticed that a few weeks ago. Matagorda, Brazoria and Victoria are natural choices to be together, but Chamber? Is that DeLay's doing?

    by pinche tejano on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 08:59:04 AM PDT

    •  Probably.

      That redistricting mess was the most geographically ludicrous set of maps I've seen in some time.

      by boadicea on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:00:23 AM PDT

      •  Well, Id call it for Skylar if it was just

        the Middle Coast 3, but Chamber County probably has all of our populations combined.

        My dad, herr republican himself, seems to be favoring Shane due to his cowboy leanings.

        by pinche tejano on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:06:02 AM PDT

        •  Chambers has about 26,000 ppl

          Jackson has about 14,500, Wharton has about 41,500, Victoria has about 85,000.

          by rocketito on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:12:16 AM PDT

          •  The county?

            Really??

            Jeez, being southeast of Houston, I figured it would be full of suburbs and shrimpers.

            by pinche tejano on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:24:19 AM PDT

•  Is it just me or does TX not get polled

  I mean Kos has new polls from every tiny district in some pissant state with the population of one of our counties but I never see shit about Tx.

  I think TX was ripe for the pickins this year -- dont know about Paul though --- but people just seem to write us off.  LOL.. yet Dems in so-called blue states have razor thin margins and people should be asking "Whats the Matter with Connecticut"

  by naufragus on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:00:49 AM PDT

  •  We haven't garnered widespread attn yet

    But we have a chance to change that all on November 7.

    The People of Texas are Back.

    by boadicea on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:19:05 AM PDT

•  You probably already know this

  but the DCCC makes the determination about emerging races based on which races in traditionally red districts seem winnable now.  How they gauged that, I don't know.  

  I believe Shane is doing extremely well.  It's not based on a poll, though, it's based on knowing a lot of people in the area, and counting up how many of the people I talk to and know are supporting Shane vs. Paul.  The bipartisan support is huge for Shane.  Most of the people I know who supported Paul last time have moved over to support Shane.  Just counting the signs during blockwalking gave me a sense of how well the campaign is doing.  

  Galveston is more of an unknown to me, but here in the other end of the district, I think it's going very well.  

  That's not the same as a poll, I know.  But Paul has a lot of money, and if he had a poll showing he were winning, he'd be trumpeting it.  Anyway, we've only got two weeks to keep working for this campaign, and I'm going to do it, with or without a poll.  

  by rocketito on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:02:44 AM PDT

•  Ron Paul is nuts

  Sklar just needs to highlight some of his wacky votes, and he will probably get a lot of Republican crossover voters (Sklar, being a moderate Democrat, is probably more in line with the majority of the district).  Sklar should also hammer Paul as being ineffective, which he really is, because he votes against anything that requires a budget.  He never gets anything passed.  He's useless to the district.

  by Skaje on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:51:55 AM PDT

•  Im going to vote in an hour

  for a straight democratic ticket.  My wife is too.  I live in League City, close to the bay, half way between Galveston and Houston.  The suburban neighborhood I live in is normally full of republican candidate signs just before elections, and the yards are empty.  All of them.  The teenager across the culdesac has had a kinky bumper sticker on her suv for months, but that, literally, is all the politics that's been visible.

  by mall teacher on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 07:28:08 AM PDT

  •  we voted

    for the dems and indies!  

    by mall teacher on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 11:22:12 AM PDT