No More Polls! (w/poll)

I think Kos should strongly consider not front paging any more polls between now and election day.  Kos mentioned that the Missouri race will be won on the ground.  All these races will be won on thr ground, and we should be acting as if we a are 10 points down in every one!  We need to stay motivated and all the polls can do at this point is demoralize us or give us a false sense of confidence.

I am not a professional pollster, but my thought on why we don't need any more polls, for what they're worth, are below.

1. We know it's close.  We don't need poll after poll showing races within the margin of error to tell us that.  The Senate will hinge on winning 2 of Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri, and they are all essentially tied.  We know what we need to do, volunteer, give money, make phone calls, do what you can to GOTV.

2. The Likely Voter models likely suck.  The political climate out there is extremely unsettled, there is a lot of anger at Bush and the GOP, and various factors motivating people to vote or not.  Who comes out to vote is unpredictable, I think that the anti-GOP sentiment is probably being under-polled, but I don't know.

3. We need a tidal wave.  Winning the House by a small margin isn't enough.  Nothing short of a massive electoral defeat for the GOP will serve to bring about the change that this country badly needs.  So don't let up just because your candidate is ahead, we need to beat them by a lot.

4. I need to stop freaking out.  Every time I see another TN or VA poll I freak out, and that's not good.

We know where it's at, we know what's at stake, nothing is likely to change massively between now and election day, so let's ignore the polls and get to it!

•  You certainly have my vote

  but you might as well ask the wind to stop blowing as ask kos to stop posting polls.

  by melvin on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:13:45 AM PDT

  •  No more "No more" diaries, please!

    See also: Enough with the "Enough" diaries

    by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:25:23 AM PDT

    •  no more

      "Fill in the blank" my fucking "fill in the blank", KOS diaries.  Please?  

      by Jambro on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:41:52 AM PDT

      •  THAT i agree 100% with.

        God that trend is so played out.

        NOT CLEVER ANYMORE PEOPLE.

        by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:57:37 AM PDT

•  Disagree.

  Polls show momentum, show who is worth donating to, show who needs more love in the form of GOTV, support, campaigning, phone calls, etc.

  Polls are not the end-all be-all, and I don't think anyone here suggests they are, but polls have their uses and I doubt anyone is being overly confident or demoralized about polls, since in nearly every poll-post, kos reminds people that it's just polls and to keep working.

  by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:14:37 AM PDT

  •  And a better poll question would have been

    "How do you feel about the number of polls on the FP?

    1. Too many

    2. Not enough

    3. Just right."

    I voted for yes, even though I think the amount of polls we have is just right.

    by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:17:05 AM PDT

    •  Are you saying

      His polling methodology on the poll about polling is wrong?  

      I suggest this diary be tagged Meta, if it isn't already.

      by Scientician on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:18:27 AM PDT

      •  good idea

        It is now.

        by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:22:29 AM PDT

  •  I just think at this point

    Particularly in the close races, any poll movement is more likely statistical variation than true momoentum.

    by Dperl99 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:17:52 AM PDT

    •  You bring up a good point.

      I still think they have more value than you give them, however.

      Especially last minute, and ESPECIALLY if we hammer on the point that polls are not FACTS.

      by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:20:05 AM PDT

  •  Agree completely.

    The number of candidates to whom I have contributed in the last week is directly linked to the polls I keep seeing on dKos.  Maybe a lot of others out there are doing the same.  Money wins elections, sadly, but there it is; so if you can get donations by running the polls constantly, go for it.  In two weeks maybe we will even miss the adrenalin rush of the polls.  (Maybe.)

    by feelingsickinMN on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:18:23 AM PDT

•  For those of us who

  are anti-social numbers geeks, polls are life blood.  

  For those of us who are action oriented, and freak when a number changes, polls suck.

  Me, count me as an anti-social numbers geek.

  I would like to see trended polls better than single number polls.

  by jimraff on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:17:09 AM PDT

•  Recommended

  Mainly because the title made me laugh.

  I'm a poll junkie, and eat them up though, but I wouldn't care if he didn't front page them, since I'd go find them anyway.

  by Scientician on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:17:16 AM PDT

  •  same here -nt

    by sexton on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:55:13 AM PDT

•  Polls are fun.

  I'm glad they're a feature. When they're done correctly, they can really let you know if you're on to something with a particular diary.

  by droogie6655321 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:19:03 AM PDT

•  Scientific Poll Question?

  Do you support that lying, cheating, womanizing, commie, homo Smith?
  Or do you support that wonderful, patriotic, Christian, true American Jones?

  (PS - I'm not exactly sure what a womanizing homo is.)

  by johnnygunn on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:20:11 AM PDT

•  Yeah!

  And I hate it when Pixar movies are always animated! Why not do live action? But noooo, it's always with the cartoons.

  And tigers -- what's with the stripes? Why is it always with the stripes?

  And why can't baseball teams play basketball instead? What's with the "baseball" stuff all the time? Why not do something different?

  And why didn't David Horowitz give up that freakin' piano and play cello instead? Lots of people would've rather heard him play the cello.

  by kos on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:20:19 AM PDT

  •  Dayum!

    

    kos got unleashed there.

    by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:22:52 AM PDT

    •  Kind like the Big Dog

      Showing up at the jam with his sax.

      Guess he feels strongly about posting what he wants on his website. Funny, that.

      by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:26:50 AM PDT

  •  Correction: Vladimir Horowitz

    by oculus on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:22:54 AM PDT

  •  Ouch

    But I feel important getting a Kos response to my diary!

    by Dperl99 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:28:39 AM PDT

    •  hehe

      excellent attitude to have ;o)

      by TheBlaz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:58:10 AM PDT

  •  Smiling

    I usually only smile when I read Kos or SusanG.

    Kos is really quite clever, beyond snark, it is uebersnark.

    Politics and humor, all that is missing is chocolate.

    by sexton on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:53:52 AM PDT

  •  Troll rate this stroke

    I dare you.

    by JohnGor0 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:56:07 AM PDT

•  Polls & the last week

  I've thought that the best approach is no front page polls for the last week of the election.  Not a ban of polls:  anyone who wants to find them will find them in the diaries.  But as far as the front page is concerned, we go in with the perspective that we're trailing by 2 points in ALL races, and that our GOTV effort will be enough to swing the races in our favor.  Having that mentality will not only assure victory in the races where we're likely to win, but might put us over the top in the close and narrowly-trailing races.

  by alphaaqua on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:21:03 AM PDT

  •  What you and the diarist are missing

    Is that this is Kos' website, and if he wants to post polls (which it seems he does), then he posts polls. If you don't like them... well I guess that's just too bad.

    by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:28:20 AM PDT

    •  It is Kos' website

      . . and he can do what he wants.  That doesn't mean I can't make a suggestion, last time I checked.

      by Dperl99 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:32:35 AM PDT

      •  Of course you can make suggestions

        I just would have thought that a long-timer like yourself would have realized how much Kos likes polls.

        by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:35:21 AM PDT

        •  I like them too

          But at some point I think they can become a distraction, that's all I'm trying to say.

          by Dperl99 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:44:00 AM PDT

    •  Just my opinion

      It's up to Kos what he wants to do.  Just my suggestion, that all.  I happen to be a poll junkie -- it's the original reason I started checking Daily Kos two years ago.  But at some point, once again, in my opinion, all the effort should be put into GOTV.  Perhaps the polls should be mentioned where there's noticeable movement, which could affect how much work we put into a given race.  Otherwise, at some point I'd say we, as Kos has said, assume nothing is in the bag and work to get every Dem or D-leaning voter out to the polls.

      by alphaaqua on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:36:03 AM PDT

•  Will never forget Wonkette's reporting

  on exit polling early on election day in Nov. /04.  Haven't trusted any poll since then.

  by oculus on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:22:00 AM PDT

•  your title

  Your diary title is hilarious!  However I do like the polls on the front page just to keep a pulse on the national opinions.  But if I really want a comprehensive look I go to pollster.com or a site like that.  Maybe only the most important should be posted?

  by esherard8 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:23:32 AM PDT

•  Just posted a comment about this in another diary

  If there weren't polls, we would be forced to focus on ALL races instead of just putting our eggs in baskets that are already full.  We wouldn't know who was up, or down, and in some cases that would be good (we would be focusing EVERYWHERE ala the 50 State Strategy) but in others bad (not focusing on winnable races as much as we should).  

  No love has been given to the AZ Senate race in terms of netroots support- but now that the polls have tightened and there is a chance we could actually win, it's suddenly worth it.  

  Polls schmolls.  

  (... that's not saying I'm not going to wait for the release of the next set of polls, because I do love reading them!  Hey, sue me.  They're interesting)

  by HeedTheMessenger on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:23:54 AM PDT

•  More polls about polls! we need trendlines ;)

  by PhillyGal on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:32:30 AM PDT

•  Polls

  I love to hate them...or is it I hate to love them???

  I think they are important as they give us a general idea where we need to focus our attentions.

  I do agree with you though about freaking out. Polls do that to me as well, but it's all part of the process that is election time.  

  by kml on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:48:29 AM PDT

  •  And I think there's a difference

    Between heavily-polled places like Connecticut and where we are, NY-25, where "real" poll results haven't even come out yet. I'd hate for some moratorium to take effect before we finally get Zogby's numbers for Walsh/Maffei :)

    by redlami on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 12:30:08 PM PDT

•  You know what would be awesome?!

  If we were all "grown up enough" to realize that we have to work to win these elections - NO MATTER WHAT IS POSTED ON THIS FREAKING PAGE.

  You know what else?  I think most people who read this are!!

  by Mister T in AZ on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 01:40:38 PM PDT

•  Hmmm ... so we stop kos. Good good ...

  ... but after he doesn't post on the front page anymore, how do we stop the other front pagers?

  Hmm -- and then we probably should make sure no polls make the recommended diary list.

  Also - no diaries that have linked stories that mention polls - even in passing!  We have to make sure they don't get recommended.

  Wait -- we probably should stop people writing about polls in any diary.  That is important.

  Fuck -- alright, nobody can predict the outcome of a race on here, or mention momentum, or talk about "winning".

  Hmmm -- come to think of it - I think we should probably not mention candidates either.

  KNOW WHAT -- no elections.  If you even mention VOTING - it could make people not work.

  Okay, I have it - let's turn this page into a celebrity gossip community until after the election!

  Crap - that won't work - Michael J. Fox is out there doing political stuff - so are other celebs.

  Instead - you can only write about Star Wars.  OH MAN -- but there is that whole Lieberman looking like the emporer thing.  Crap that won't work.

  OKAY I HAVE IT -- only HARRY POTTER can be mentioned.

  Wait -- clearly voldermort is a republican .. WHAT THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO DO!!!!!

  by Mister T in AZ on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 01:49:28 PM PDT