I've cross-posted this here and at DU.
I know it's tight, but the recent SUSA poll of Missouri has got me scared.
I don't know what to think. On the one hand, there's that Mason-Dixon poll that has Claire up by 3. OTOH, there are polls by SUSA and LAT/Bloomberg that have Talent up by 3.
The SUSA poll is very frightening to me.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=078e65d9-7cd0-4f86-bf71-adcc760b51f2
It has Talent close to 50% at 48% and McCaskill at 45%, which is a huge swing from their poll two weeks ago that had McCaskill up 52 to 43.
It says "Republicans appear newly energized in this contest, in part driven by the forces at work on Amendment 2, separate analysis to follow. Second, in the 10/12 poll, McCaskill led by 13 points among Independent voters. Today, Independents are tied at 41%."
Also, " In the Ozark Region, Talent led by 6 on 10/12. Today Talent leads by 36, a 30-point swing to the Republican. In rural Central Missouri, McCaskill led by 16 on 10/12. Today, Talent leads by 8, a 24-point swing to the Republican.The St. Louis and Kansas City regions continue to favor McCaskill. There is other movement: Talent had trailed among whites, now leads. Talent had trailed among the youngest voters, now leads."
And troubling news about the stem-cell initiative as well: "On 10/12, McCaskill led by 44 points among voters who were certain to vote "Yes" on Amendment 2. Today, McCaskill leads by 38 points among the "Certain Yes" voters. But: the size of the "Certain Yes" group has shrunk from 57% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 45%. On 10/12, Talent led by 68 points among voters who were certain to vote "No" on Amendment 2. Today, Talent leads by 56 points among the "Certain No" voters. But: the size of the "Certain No" group has grown from 27% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 36% of Likely Voters.
About that stem-cell initiative: "Support For Stem Cell Amendment Begins to Erode"
* Males Bail: In a referendum today, 10/24/06, 2 weeks to Election Day, Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, has more support than opposition, but: with 18% of Likely Voters Not Yet Certain how they will vote on the Amendment, and with some demographic groups dramatically shifting their position on the Amendment, the contest is
too volatile, and too unpredictable, to reliably forecast.
* Twelve days ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, Amendment 2 passed, 57% 'Certain' to vote Yes, 27% 'Certain' to vote No. Since then, 'Certain Yes' is down to 45%, 'Certain No' is up to 36%; a 30-point cushion on 10/12 is today a 9-point cushion. Among males, the Amendment had passed by 49 points on 10/12. Today, it passes by 6, a 43-point swing. Among voters age 35 to 49, opposition to the Amendment has doubled from a SurveyUSA poll on 9/14. Among affluent voters, the Amendment passed by 35 points on 10/12, passes by 2 points today, a 33-point swing. In Central MO, the Amendment had passed by 32 points, now is defeated by 6, a 38-point swing.
Now, SUSA also two weeks ago had Claire up by 9 points, so with such volatile swings, I'm not sure they can be trusted. But it's not so much the actual horserace numbers (48-45) that bug me, it's the massive shift in movement on the stem-cell initiative.
Hopefully the new Danforth ad and the Michael J. Fox ad will boost the "YES" vote on Amendment 2.