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I consider the Evans-Novak political report (sent out by email) as "behind the trenches" look at some of the hottest races. His latest report has a lot of juicy details on several races he has given pro-Democrat upgrades this week:

Colorado-5: It could be said that Rep. Joel Hefley (R), retiring from this heavily Republican district, is a sore loser who cannot get over the defeat of his favored primary candidate, Jeff Crank (R), by conservative state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R). But that would be a gross oversimplification of the matter, since Colorado Springs Republicans say that the enmity goes both ways, with Lamborn's campaign doing its share of antagonizing the establishment unnecessarily.

Either way, it should be almost impossible for him to lose this 66 percent Bush district to Jay Fawcett (D) or anyone else, but he is underperforming right now, leading comfortably only in partisan Republican polls that should be regarded with suspicion. Leaning Republican Retention [...]

Nevada-3: Rep. Jon Porter (R) is now under water in his suburban Las Vegas district, caught in a tough race against Sen. Harry Reid's (D) press secretary Tessa Hafen (D). There is much fear that Mormon Republicans will pull the lever for Hafen, their co-religionist.

Republicans have ramped up the number of 72-hour campaigners in the district, and they do so at the expense of contested District 2 to the North. The logic here is that if Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) loses the state's most heavily Republican district, that one can be won back in 2008, but a loss of Porter's district would be permanent. The 2nd District race is also much closer than it should be. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

New Hampshire-2: Here's a surprise. No one expected Rep. Charlie Bass (R) to fall behind late in the game, but that's where he is. Bass appears to have been caught off his guard. He has been outraised by his repeat opponent, Paul Hodes, whom he defeated by 20 points in 2004. Republicans complain about Bass's lacksidaisical staffers and discuss the possible loss of his Northern New Hampshire seat. Bass's get-out-the-vote effort is extremely disorganized. He is also upsetting his base with ads that brought his pro-abortion stance into the race and that distance himself from the Republican Party.

It is unclear whether Bass can be saved in time. He just started a huge phone drive Tuesday to save his seat, and some Republicans remain hopeful that he can bounce back by November 7. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

New Mexico-1: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is down in the polls and showing alarmingly soft support among the suburban Hispanic constituency that was key to her victories in the past. Her recent ad touting her vote to override President Bush's stem-cell veto is a huge miscalculation -- the stem-cell issue is good only for Democrats, it can only hurt Republicans, whichever side they fall on. Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D) has superceded the scandal surrounding her prosecution of federal witnesses in a major corruption trial in New Mexico, and Republicans fear that Wilson, a tough campaigner, may be at the end of her rope. Likely Democratic Takeover.

New York Districts: Republicans were heartened earlier in the year by polls showing their New York incumbents in good shape, but suddenly there is panic in the Empire State over several incumbents and one open-seat race. New York Republicans usually don't need competitive statewide races to drive turnout, so the uncompetitive Senate and governor races -- both with Democrats strongly favored -- would not be a factor in a normal year. But this is not a normal year.

Rep. John Sweeney (R) in District 20 is sending up warning flags as his race against Kirsten Gillibrand (D) tightens. The public polls vary wildly, but Republicans are now fearful that they have another seriously wounded patient on their hands. Leaning Republican Retention.

The complaint in Washington is that state Sen. Ray Meier (R) in open District 24 won't go negative enough against Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D). But Meier's campaign offices have become tense as publicization of Arcuri's personal scandals actually appear to be backfiring against Meier, even though he has avoided bringing them up himself. Meier feels enough pressure that he has convinced the retiring incumbent, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R), to come out of hiding and help him. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

The alarming public poll showing Rep. James Walsh (R) losing to challenger and former Rangel staffer Dan Maffei (D) District 25 is not credible, but Walsh leads by only about five points, far less than he is accustomed to at this point in the cycle. This race will be close. Leaning Republican Retention.

NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R) has partially recovered from the initial shock of the Foley scandal. His wealthy District 26 opponent, Jack Davis (D), is an eccentric amateur. But the burden remains on Reynolds to make the comeback and cleanse himself of the Foley situation. The RNC is spending money on his behalf. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in District 29 has seen his support among women evaporate. Kuhl's dirty laundry -- including the old alleged threat against his wife with a shotgun -- had been aired before, but now perhaps it is finding a more receptive audience in this tough Republican election year. Eric Massa (D), a former naval aide to Wesley Clark, hopes to take advantage by Election Day. Leaning Democratic Takeover [...]

Wyoming-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) is now in danger of losing after she unwisely accosted and threatened to slap the no-chance libertarian third-party candidate in her race. Thomas Rankin (Lib) happens to be crippled, which makes it even worse. How badly this hurts her in the polls against businessman Gary Trauner (D) is yet to be determined. Leaning Republican Retention.

Novak has also upgraded Republican chances in FL-22, KY-02, KY-04, and OH-18 seeing those races trending the GOP's direction.

Novak is predicting that Democrats will pick up 21 House seats and 4 Senate seats -- an eminently sensible, well-within the CW, prediction. At this point, most prognosticators are predicting a Democratic House and a narrow GOP edge in the Senate.

Update: Huh. I didn't know you could find this online. Here's the full report.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 05:51 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Alterman's not (0+ / 0-)

    Which makes me nervous.


    -9.00, -3.69 Bush, 12/12/05: "I think we are welcomed [in Iraq]. But it was not a peaceful welcome."

    by SlackerInc on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 05:52:53 PM PDT

  •  So (0+ / 0-)

    what number should we multiply those predictions by?

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 05:53:35 PM PDT

    •  We shouldn't (0+ / 0-)

      it's actually a fair count.

      Ask me, and I'll give you a lower number of Dem pickups. So if you want optimism, don't ask me.

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        but then again, we're due for 4 to 6 people losing unexpectedly.

        This isn't like 2002 where Bush had a 65% approval rating, or 2004 where we never had a good shot to win the House.

        I'll say that we have a very real shot of advancing past 205 seats, and towards 218 seats.

        "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

        by RBH on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:02:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  heh heh! (0+ / 0-)

    "Thomas Rankin (Lib) happens to be crippled..."

    Ol' Novak is a gem.

  •  The juxtaposition of these two (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Harkov311, shellyshell, eddersen

    sentences in the bit about Reynolds really made me laugh:

    The RNC is spending money on his behalf. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

  •  Will Saddam's 11-5 Death Sentencing Impact Races? (0+ / 0-)

    I wonder how it'll impact the close races.  Will this event, two days before the election, keep the Repubs in control of the Senate?  Maybe, but I sure hope not.  What I really hope is that the Dems and media crush the fact that the sentencing is occuring so close to the election.  Regardless, the Dems will win the House no doubt IMHO, so "let the sunshine in."  

    The November Tsudemi Approacheth

    by Public Servant on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 05:59:57 PM PDT

  •  I just stopped breathing (4+ / 0-)

    and had to pound on my chest to start again.  NH-02 = SO COOL!!!!!

    I mean, this is what I've thought all along, but damn!  Someone famous and wingnutty thinks it!

  •  There's no link...... (0+ / 0-)

    but what irks me about this article, which I assume is in the wapo... is that it all may be true, but is OBVIOUSLY a republican rallying puff peace... to highlight republicans, republicans, republicans.\

    Googlebomb WA-08 - Dave Reichert

    by letsfight on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:02:09 PM PDT

  •  NY-29 Massa (0+ / 0-)

    like that upgrade, he's a personal fave, about time. Whats up in FL-22 that it is "trending" republican (per Novak)??

    "Bush is in command. And when he heard that sectarian militias had killed hundreds of Iraqis, he called for an immediate invasion of Sectaria." - Bill Maher

    by Predictor on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:02:19 PM PDT

    •  I was wondering the same thing (0+ / 0-)

      I live in FL-22, and I haven't seen or read anything (even through my admittedly blue-colored glasses) that would lead one to believe there's been a move towards 13-term incumbent Republican Clay Shaw (whose Google bomb link is inactive now, btw).

      We've had Dueling Presidents in this area the last few days, as the Big Dog was in town last week for Ron Klein, raising some $500,000, and Chimpy came in yesterday to stump for Shaw (and raise about $1 million).

      Based on anecdotal but firsthand evidence, I'd say it's still neck-and-neck.  I don't know where Novak gets his information on this one.

      Watch me on Jeopardy! beginning November 6! (Check local listings for the time and channel in your area.)

      by Sinfonian on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 07:00:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  FL-22 Thanks for the response (0+ / 0-)

        and I'm hearing the same from my politically saavy friends living there too. I briefly lived in FL-22 so I'm definitely interested in and following this race and am familiar with the District. I'll just chalk this up to Novak spin. You can only run the old dog so many times and ex Broward County Sheriff Shaw has run his course. Thankfully State Sen. Ron Klein has raised some big bucks and is a strong candidate. I haven't met anyone yet on Medicare who thinks the rethugs have done anything but botch the Prescription Med plan and given the demographics in the District, this won't help Shaw, let alone the general political climate in Florida: Nelson landslide and good possibility that Crist will crash & burn. I see the FTL Sun Sentinel has endorsed Shaw but the Palm Beach Post has endorsed Klein, not seeing any endorsement by the Miami Herald in their Broward section. No plans to change my forecast model showing a Klein win.
        Good luck on Jeopardy, always been a fave show of mine.

        "Bush is in command. And when he heard that sectarian militias had killed hundreds of Iraqis, he called for an immediate invasion of Sectaria." - Bill Maher

        by Predictor on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 09:15:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  OH-18 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Public Servant

    Space is a great guy, and Padgett is a total piece of shit. That said, I'm a resident of OH-18, and I'd be damn surprised is Space could pull it off.

    •  Comical that Padgett defaulted on $700K loan... (0+ / 0-)

      and filed bankruptcy for her startup company, and now she wants to help run our government.  She's also handpicked by Ney, Blackwell and Taft.  I'm in Columbus area, so don't see things first hand in OH-18, but I'd sure hope that ZS can take care of business.  What is Space's background?  Is his inexperience an issue?  

      The November Tsudemi Approacheth

      by Public Servant on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:09:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Space (0+ / 0-)

        He's an attorney and law director (elected) for the city of Dover. Not a career politician, though. Native of the district; graduated from Kenyon College, which is in his district. Smart guy.

        I've seen a TON of space signs in Knox County, where I live. But I chalk that up more to excitement among the (minority) Democrats than anything else. Yeah, we're definitely excited up here and really into it, but I don't have my hopes up. There are a bunch of real idiots in this part of the state.

        I just hope I'm pleasantly surprised in two weeks...

        •  Except that (0+ / 0-)
          Space has led ALL the polls and Padgett is really, really damaged. The commrecials being run on her behalf are sad, and really ineffective (trying to scare people because Space is supported by "radical" group, Council for a Livable World? How many viewers do you think have even HEARD of this "radical" group? Probably even fewer than know who George Soros is.)  think it'll be a minor miracle if Padgett pulls it off.

          Don't just assume that everyone is an idiot. Padgett's negatives are considerable and y ou should be out there making sure more people know about them. Put you shoulder back, hold your head high and go out and work! Some polls have shown Space leading by double digits.

          •  I believe their internals (0+ / 0-)

            I live in the 18th, and have been doing phone banking locally. I have been getting leaners, who say they are leaning toward Strickland and Brown, but are undecided about Space. When I ask why, they say that they have heard terrible things about him. When I ask about specifics, they can't say. I don't watch much TV, but I have been getting flyers in the mail against Space about 2-3 times a week. The Dispatch has reported that the RNCC has dropped 2.3 MILLION not so much for Padgett as against Space. Not only did Padgett default on a $750,000 fed loan, but she conveniently gave a farm to her brothers the WEEK before she declared bankruptcy. I've called the Space campaign directly about my concerns, that they need to post to the web site every day or more so that they can answer these ads.

            The polls positive for Space are old. the RNCC have innundated this district with negative ads, people don't even remember what the ad says, but it is an impression.

            This district was about 66% for Ney in his last election. Because it is so red, and because it is a bitch to advertise in (so jerrymandered, no one single major TV market), once they have incumbancy, it will be difficult to shake.

            Perhaps Space's campaign will start publicizing Padgett's fraudulent land deal in some way. In any case, I will keep up with the calls, and persuade one voter at a time, but I think there  is every reason to believe Padgett is currently ahead.

    •  You may want to tell the NRCC that (0+ / 0-)

      They have burned through $3 million trying to save that district for Padgett.

  •  I have a hard time taking Novak seriously (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flatford39, vcmvo2, sodalis, Predictor

    after his Sunday statement that "I would make the argument that this is one of the least important elections that I have seen."

    Serious bias or serious stupidity.

  •  NY-13 coming on strong too (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I just wrote a diary about how NY-13 has been picking up a lot of momentum lately, including articles in WSJ, NYT, a spot on MSNBC, a CQ upgrade, and front page status here a few days ago.

    This district has 3 Democrats for every 2 Republicans, and the current Republican, Vito Fossella, has been involved in some recent scandals.

    If the election season was extended another few weeks, I'd feel even more confident about Stephen Harrison's chances. He's got momentum --and the NY Dem slate -- on his side already.

    Stephen Harrison in NY-13 My Act Blue page

    by shellyshell on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:04:14 PM PDT

  •  Thoughts... (0+ / 0-)

    CO-05... we probably won't win, but I could be surprised.  As much as the GOP establishment dislikes Lamborn, he'll probably win just because of the number of people there who always vote Republican.

    NV-03: Pretty strong move.  Porter's big wins in 2002 and 2004 belie the marginal nature of the district, so I'm not surprised.

    NH-02: Wow.  Didn't see that coming.  Chuck Todd in National Journal today said that if some of the remaining Northeast Republicans survive, but we still take back the House, those Republicans will be in even more danger in 2008.

    NM-01: Likely???  That's strong right there.

    WY-AL: Still think this one's going to come down to the wire.  Cubin is only making things worse for herself.

  •  Hope they're wrong about the Senate (0+ / 0-)

    It sure would be nice to be able to stop another Supreme Court appointment directly.  But hey, if we can get some new blood in there and continue to put pressure on the people there already, maybe we can get them to stand up to threats of the "nuclear option" cheat this time.

  •  Even though Novak is the Prince of Darkness... (0+ / 0-)

    ...I have to say I have a soft spot for the guy. He's often a lot more truthful and perceptive about Republican strategies, chances, thinking etc. than supposedly centrist pundits such as Joe Klein, David Broder and most of the rest of the DC punditocracy.

    He is, however, a self-hating Jew--so self-hating that he became a Catholic. It's always quite surprising to see how much he seems to dislike Israel--not because of any concern about how the country treats the Palestinians, but because...well, I just don't think he likes Jews.

    •  I'm a fan (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      if for no other reason that he gets good dirt from both sides and airs it. The guys has great sources, and they dish.

      His politics are shit, but what other Republican will admit that things are bleak in NH-02?

      •  I still remember him on election night 1992 (0+ / 0-)

        He was on Inside Politics and CNN had just called the election for Clinton. He managed to say through a clenched teeth rictus that Clinton had done a superb job and was the better campaigner. It killed him ... but he did say it.

    •  Well, I'm half-Jewish (0+ / 0-)
      (mom's side) though she wasn't an actual practicing religious Jew, and I became Episcopalian. I dislike the Israeli government because it strikes me as a mirror image of the Bush administration, although all the Israeli people I've met have been perfectly nice.
  •  Split Congress (0+ / 0-)

    As much as I hate to talk about the prospect of winning the House of Reps....

    What can we expect with a Dem House and GOP Senate? It's been a while since it happened, can anyone enlighten me?

  •  NH-02 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ellefarr, HillaryGuy

    Republicans complain about Bass's lacksidaisical staffers and discuss the possible loss of his Northern New Hampshire seat. Bass's get-out-the-vote effort is extremely disorganized. He is also upsetting his base with ads that brought his pro-abortion stance into the race and that distance himself from the Republican Party.

    Oh no!  I hope the Republicans don't send a bunch-o-Texans (or whatever) to New Hampshire to smack those guys around, straighten shit out...those Granite Staters are ripe for the pickin'...They just can't say no when told what to do by outsiders...I hope the GOP isn't reading this...I wouldn't want to give them any ideas.....

  •  I'm excited about the NM-01 upgrade (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but every other politico locally and nationally still put this as a very, very close race.  I think Novak is just going on the polls, and didn't see the latest ABQJournal poll, which had Madrid up by 3.

    I'm not sure how well he understands our little area.  After all, we have a lot of sunshine, and he is a 115-year-old vampire demon.

  •  Oh NO! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Harkov311, sundancekid11, sodalis

    Novak is predicting that Democrats will pick up 21 House seats and 4 Senate seats

    I say 22 and 4.  I agree with Novak?  Shit!

    Is America finally suffering from Idiot Fatigue?

    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:17:07 PM PDT

  •  I watched Tessa Hafen on CSPAN (0+ / 0-)

    She is a sharp candidate.  She is also running against a sharp candidate.  Watching those two spar was a lesson in presentation.  Tessa won the debate in my opinion because, well, ahhh, she's a Democrat.

    She reminded me of the press secretary character on West Wing.  She was simply maaaaarvelous.  

    However, please take my praise of public performance with a grain of salt.  I am soooo happy to hear a candidate string together multisyllable words in a coherent sentence wrapped into a coherent dialog.  It's just like poetry.

    •  Sharp analysis in your own right (0+ / 0-)

      That was a very high caliber debate, one of the highest caliber I've seen on C-SPAN this cycle and I've taped and watched almost every one. Two more to come in NV-3 and I think tomorrow night is the next one.

      I'm in Las Vegas and Hafen has surpassed expectation throughout the campaign. Her commercials are far superior to Dina Titus' and Jack Carter's. A great blend of attack and promote. Plus very frequent instead of relying on the same stale message week after week. Her fundraising has been tremendous.

      I've got to admit Jon Porter surprised me with the caliber of his debating last Thursday. In 2002 he was a scattergun goof in debates against Dario Herrera, but it was irrelevant since Herrera was in high speed freefall, under ethics charges. He is currently serving 50 months on a federal charge.

      Obviously control of the House will probably be decided much earlier than the Nevada races but regardless of the nationwide situation I'll be rooting for Tessa Hafen as much as any of our candidates. She is sensational and Novak finally got something right; if Hafen establishes herself in this district she can probably hold it for many cycles, then perhaps shoot for senate or governor. A foothold in NV-3 would be huge in that regard, because neighboring NV-1 is much more friendly to Democrats. It's just like John Ensign, who built a base in NV-1 in '94 and has used it to be much less vulnerable than a typical Republican in Clark County.

      •  I wish her luck at the pols (0+ / 0-)

        She has a great mind and certainly needs to be in leadership position.

        When she was introduced as Sen. Harry Reid's press secretary I thought this is going to be interesting.  The only reason for the character comparison was that her responses and expressions were absolutely correct and presented in a relaxed, casual manner.  

        The one thing that depressess me comparing the TV show, West Wing, to real life in DC is that if there were people that intelligent having analysis and discussions that detailed I would not have to spend as much time watching my government as I do making a living.  Tessa Hafen makes that vision come true.

        Well Tessa Hafen and NV-3 good luck. I'll be watching the results.

  •  Worrying about MT-Sen (and TN, MO, VA, AZ) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Here's my order of likelihood for us picking up Sen seats:

      1. PA

      2. OH

      3. RI

      4. MT

      5. TN

      6. MO

      7. VA/AZ

    I think PA, OH, and RI are pretty much in the bag at this point.  

    MT seems close to being put away, but Chuck Todd pointed out something worrying - Tester has NEVER gotten more than 48% in a poll not conducted by Rasmussen, which tends to be disappointing in its accuracy.  And to make it worse, nearly all the undecideds are GOPers.

    This is such a GOP state, and Burns has been around so long.  Schweitzer had the benefit of running in an open seat and being able to outspend the GOP nominee - and he already had better name recognition than his opponent because of his own run against Burns in 2000.  I think Tester gets to 49% easy.  It's 51% that worries me.  This one isn't as tucked away as I think some people assume.  We REALLY have to make sure Tester has a good turnout squad on 11/7.

    Even if MT falls to us, we need 2 more.  MO looked like the best bet for awhile, but McCaskill has slipped in polls over the past two weeks.  That leaves VA, TN, and AZ as far as realistic pickup opportunities.

    I think TN might actually be the best bet, simply because Ford is the best candidate.  He's polished, charismatic, and still manages to connect with voters.  The GOP has gone hyper-nasty against him, which will surely drive up African-American turnout.  And one thing people keep forgetting - Bredesen is ROMPING to reelection there.

    VA and AZ are about equal, I think.  Allen is a weaker incumbent facing a stronger challenger.  Polls show VA closer, but Granholm is crusing to reelection in AZ, and Dems seem motivated in the Congressional races.  Add in the fact that AZ is generally less red than VA, and I think AZ might actually turn out to be better for us than VA.

    Anyway, that's my take.

    •  Granholm? (0+ / 0-)

      Since when is she running in AZ?  You mean Napolitano, surely.  Kyl might be hurt by the three tough House races Dems are running.  Graf is about to get his ass handed to him, and Hayworth and Renzi could lose as well.  If Renzi's indictment is all over the news I don't see him winning.

      •  Yes, i did mean Napolitano (0+ / 0-)

        Random brain fart...sorry.  Don't know what happened - they don't even look alike.

        But yes, the Dems are looking stronger than expected in every race but Sen, and that could have some trickle-up effect on Pederson.

  •  As much as I hate Novak (0+ / 0-)

    as a person, I've got to admit that his political reports are totally fascinating and intriguing.  Say whatr you will you will about the "prince of darkness," he dfinitely has his ear down in the hot dirt.

    Rep. Peter King (NY-03) is an ASSHOLE!

    by pontificator on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:30:56 PM PDT

  •  Understated (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sundancekid11, Predictor

    Typical Novak -- he understates Dem strength. There is a groundswell happening, folks. Dems are not seen as scary as the GOP paints us by the indies. But you go ahead and lower projections Kos (and others). I'll keep the optimistic fires burning (as I and others continue to work our asses off toward a huge Dem victory).

    "Fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again." --George W. Bush

    by RevJoe on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:35:48 PM PDT

    •  a$$ets working here too; and, yea, what you said, (0+ / 0-)

      Rev, about working toward a huge dem victory

      FIGHT LIKE IT'S 1776, not only 1984!

      by sundancekid11 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:49:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And another thing (0+ / 0-)

        This whole thing is about Iraq. Yeah, yeah, there are lots of other issues nationally, and local ones too. But this election is a referendum on George W. Bush and his Iraq policy. I hope everyone remembers that as the poll numbers come in big for us on Nov. 7.

        "Fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again." --George W. Bush

        by RevJoe on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 07:12:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Close to my prediction (0+ / 0-)

    22+ in the House and 5+ in the Senate.

    You're one microscopic cog in his catastrophic plan designed and directed by his red right hand

    by RandyMI on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 06:35:56 PM PDT

  •  Re NV-2 (0+ / 0-)

    While E-N's analysis is MOL spot on in all regards, didn't Mason-Dixon have Porter +9 or so over Hafen last week?

    The problem the GOP has with NV-2 (my devoutly Republican Summerlin neighborhood notwithstanding), is that Clark County is becoming inexorably blue for a number of reasons.

    What's really amazing is that the sitting Secretary of State, actually a competent and accessible one (Nevada pols, as a general rule, whether they be GOP or Dem, are invariably centrist) is in trouble in one of the reddest districts in the USA (NV-1). If this is the case, it makes me wonder whether Carter is much closer than what currently appears to be against Ensign. Rasmussen and Zogby have him down to single digits again, but they aren't as reliable as, say, M-D.

  •  Dem House, Repub Senate (0+ / 0-)

    I think that he's about right.  All this talk about a blowout is probably wishful thinking.   He's right..remember how confident we were about John Kerry? (Of course we didn't predict that they would cheat in Ohio).  

    I don't think either Ford, Webb, or McCaskill can make it happen.  They're in states that are just too red right now.  Ford is a superb candidate...but unfortunately, the redneck factor is going to do him in.  Same goes for Virginia.  Missouri is just way too wonderbread to elect McCaskill.  

    but the House will be good enough.  

  •  Charlie Cook (0+ / 0-)

    What I find interesting is that Cook is predicting  a very narrow range of 5-6 Senate pickups for the Democrats.  He seems to consider it possible for the Dems to pickup as "low" as 4 and as many as 7, but more likely they'll nab 5-6.

  •  Anyone notice this in the Evans Novak report (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vcmvo2, HillaryGuy

     Maryland: Republicans depressed with the state of House races should console themselves with warm, happy thoughts about Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R). He is running a ship-shape campaign that is hitting on all cylinders at just the right time.

    In key municipalities in heavily black Prince George's County, he is registering unexpectedly high levels of support. His volunteers are finding that all of his databases are up to date, signifying that there will be no last-minute collapse on that level, as there was in 2004 for the Bush-Cheney campaigns in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Steele's ads are good, his polls have him within striking distance and he is making no major mistakes, even as his opponent keeps finding new ways to put his own foot in his mouth.

    The biggest surprise is that Steele is entering the final two weeks with twice as much cash as the favorite, Rep. Ben Cardin (D). If this weren't liberal Maryland, Steele would be running away with it. As matters stand, he at least has the momentum on his side. Leaning Democratic Retention.

    Considering how often Steele has put his foot in his mouth (I've lost count) and how Cardin has not, this summary lacks credibility.

    Even now, Steele's stem-cell-research-is-like-the-Holocaust comment is coming back to haunt him as Fox's ads begin to air.

    •  Leaning Democratic Retention (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Naturegal, HillaryGuy

      But Michael Steele is running a perfect campaign? What a bald-faced liar! Steele's campaign has misfired as often as it's been on track! The stem cell/holocaust statement is only one of several clueless comments Steele has made...Bush is his homeboy being another cringe inducing statement- but that's just me!

      Let us resolve to be the masters,not the victims,of our history,controlling our own destiny without giving way to blind suspicions & emotions- JFK

      by vcmvo2 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 07:38:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, the whole anonymous interview he gave (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        where he trashed the GOP, then was outed, and took it all back on conservative radio the next day. Hardly a political professional at work.

        I hate to say it, but the only reason he is still in the race is because Maryland has a large African-American population. And that has nothing to do with Steele running a good campaign.

      •  blame cardin (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He is failing to point out how right wing Steele is and Steele is selling himself as a moderate. All Cardin does is tie Steele to bush without showing specifics. Certain black voters will vote for him because he is one of them.It wouldn`t surprise me
        if steele won.
        In Montana keep in mind Burns approval is about 40%
        hard to see him getting close to 50%.

        •  It would surprise me if (0+ / 0-)

          Steele'll be close but Cardin will prevail

          Let us resolve to be the masters,not the victims,of our history,controlling our own destiny without giving way to blind suspicions & emotions- JFK

          by vcmvo2 on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:42:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Do not trust the undead Novakula (0+ / 0-)

    or he will cast you under his spell and haul you off to his castle to be transformed into a creature of the night . . . like Him!

    Man With No Name: You may run the risks, my friend, but I do the cutting. We cut down my percentage - uh, cigar? - liable to interfere with my aim.

    by Cartoon Peril on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 07:29:59 PM PDT

  •  NH-02 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Leaning Democratic Takeover

    This jsut made my day.  This just made my week.

    This will make my year worth it if this prediction proves true in two weeks.

    Thank god NH has PAPER BALLOTS so we know our votes will be accurate.

  •  NV-03: Porter is "under water?" (0+ / 0-)

    On what basis? The only poll showing a close race, Momentum Analysis, is partisan, a month old, with a big margin of error.

    I'm planning on walking a couple of precincts in a close House race, and this one would be convenient. I'd appreciate advice - from someone other than Novak that is.

    I am contributing to the graying of the blogosphere.

    by forkush on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 08:25:17 PM PDT

    •  A poll released yesterday had it 43-41 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That's my neighboring district and it's definitely close. Peter Hart is a Democratic pollster but he's polled in Nevada for decades with accurate results. His poll yesterday had it 43-41 in favor of Porter.

      Hafen had an internal poll a week or two ago with the margin at four. My instincts are the race leans 4-6 points in favor of Porter but Hafen has run a terrific race and it wouldn't shock me if she pulled this out. Her commercials are frequent and effective and she has been walking the district and participating in every local event, including church and synagogue-related, which made Novak's comment about her Mormonism interesting. Porter is running his standard campaign, relentless and misleading attack ads, including labeling Hafen a carpetbagger, which is laughable. Today Porter is in the news for making illegal fundraising calls from his office.

      Check upthread and you'll notice a comment praising Hafen's debate effort last week. She was sensational, surpassing even Democratic expectation. Two more debates remaining and I think the next one is tomorrow night.

      The problem with this race is the district leans more right than the registration figures would have you believe. Democrats have a slight registration edge but the independents skew to the right more than typical.

  •  they want Meier to go more negative on Arcuri? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The complaint in Washington is that state Sen. Ray Meier (R) in open District 24 won't go negative enough against Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D). But Meier's campaign offices have become tense as publicization of Arcuri's personal scandals actually appear to be backfiring against Meier, even though he has avoided bringing them up himself. Meier feels enough pressure that he has convinced the retiring incumbent, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R), to come out of hiding and help him. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

    Meier has already gone into the gutter.  Our people knocking on doors in the district and making calls say everyone has seen Meier's negative ads, and no believes that Meier's not behind it.

    Meier's problem is that he's out of touch with the district, while Arcuri is a good fit.  The Rs thought they could sneak Meier into office by relying on the R registration advantage and appealing to the extremists who never liked Boehlert.

    Arcuri's really resonating with people - they like who he is and what he stands for.  Now Meier is left with only the extremists and no way to reach out to anyone else.  The Rs should be worried, they're going to lose this one.

  •  Interesting Novak fact (0+ / 0-)

    If I recall correctly, Novak was the only pundit who predicted the Republican landslide in 94. He may be disagreeable, but he does seem to have his ear to the ground.

    "The American fascist would prefer not to use violence. His method is to poison the channels of public information." -- Henry A. Wallace

    by Jim Demetre on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 10:38:16 PM PDT

  •  I REALLY don't buy this (0+ / 0-)

    I can't see 2 seats in Nevada going Dem, and yet OH-18, where the GOP has had to pump THREE MILLION DOLLARS, suddenly turning for Padgett.

    •  Yeah, I'm on the ground in OH-18 (0+ / 0-)

      and I believe it. See comment above.

      •  I still don't believe it. (0+ / 0-)

        She could win, sure, but not with this huge gushing success that Novak claims. Blackwell and DeWine are going to have a hard time at the polls, to say the least, and I don't think there is going to be a big GOP turnout in Ohio this year.

        If she were breathing easier, the GOP would not keep throwing money at that district.

        •  I'm doing calls (0+ / 0-)

          and the undecideds that are leaning toward Strickland and Brown are still undecided about Space because of the onslaught of negative ads about him. They wouldn't be putting all that money in if they didn't think it would make a difference.

          I think it's realistic to believe it, and to redouble efforts.

          •  I'm certainly not saying that she'll lose (0+ / 0-)

            I'm just saying I don't believe that things are a cakewalk for her now. Novak is not reliable. I remember last year he said John Thune was doomed because of Ellsworth Air Force Base being closed. Then not long after that, the base was kept open. Any reporter with connections would have known that.

            The Hill had a good article on the race.

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