I'm not afraid - but I was. Should I still be?

I haven't seen anyone diary this but even if it was this is probably a different enough take on it to do a diary.

George and Karl are both talking confidently about the outcome of the upcoming elections. I'll ignore Bush's confidence because he's simply a follower and saying only what he's supposed to say. Karl is the one who scares me when he is (acting?) supremely confident about retaining control of both the House and the Senate with this election. Given that every poll that's been out shows that at least Congress will fall to Dems why is he so confident?

Before I wrote this diary I as shaking scared that Rove was confident that Republicans could steal this election. I'm not so sure of that so I went back and changed the title of this diary from "I'm scared" to what you see now.

Markos and others are being conservative and maintaining some reserve by saying that they don't think Democrats will take control of either the House or the Senate. Unless someone is not being honest with us here and is giving us only the good news how could anyone doubt what the polls are saying? It's not even close in enough to take at least the house. Of course, that could change so I have to assume it's the uncertainly that is causing some including Markos to hedge on this.

So, in an attempt to analyze this for myself I come up with some points to consider:

1) Rove is acting confident to convince those who only go with winners to vote Republican.
2) Rove is an idiot - this feels so good to say even if I don't believe it.
3) Rove is whistling in the dark and is really scared shitless.
4) Rove's confidence is based on knowing that no matter how the voters vote they have disenfranchise methods we haven't even heard of.
5) Rove has enough vote theft mechanisms in place to pick up what disenfranchisement doesn't.
6) Rove still has enough left in his pocket in terms of surprises and media manipulations that he believes is enough to turn the tide before Nov 7th. This assumes that the numbers should very quickly start to reverse directions. It's unlikely that they could really sway as many House races as they need in the last 1-2 days.

Let's do a quicky analysis of the liklihood of each without worrying about weighting.

Item 1 - certainly comes into play. How could he say anything else? Even a few votes could be crucial and critical.
Item 2 - not at all
Item 3 - May or may not and actually could be a supplement to item 1.
Item 4 - certainly part of his formula
Item 5 - there is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest this is part of the formula. Think back to 2000 and Max Cleland.
Item 6 - certainly part of the formula

If you take the relative liklihood of each of these and supply equal weighting it's easy to see why he is confident. It's also easy to see why he could still be wrong.

I'm not as afraid now that I've thought it through. Am I whistling in the dark?

•  belive in the people

  and watch them like hawks.

  by akskye on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 12:31:09 AM PDT

  •  Expect the best

    but prepare for the worst.

    I posted this over at our blog for Steve Young Ca 48th and got a good comment. raincoaster said that it might be

    the Dick Morris strategy: ie, that both Bush and Rove are lame ducks and have nothing riding on the outcome of the next election? Their positions are secure, and their transition into lucrative private contracts guaranteed. Rove, of course, by stepping back can claim he was instrumental in Bush’s victory and had nothing to do with anyone who lost...does he have ANY clients in the House or Senate races? Then he goes on to a big book deal and then to the next Republican Presidential candidates, at a big raise.

    by CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 12:39:02 AM PDT

  •  This looks like

    a great take on Dick Morris' strategy.

    In his syndicated column Monday titled "Best GOP Hope: Scare 'em Silly," rapacious right-wing rhetoric slinger Dick Morris wrote that "Republicans won't save themselves with phony optimism--pathetic claims that, somehow, they're mounting a comeback. They need to sound a note of alarm and fill the airwaves with specifics of exactly what will happen if the Democrats triumph." And to Morris, that means lie and distort the truth about the war on terror. And why not? It's sure as hell worked like a charm in the past.

    Watching Lou Dobbs' show tonight, "Broken Borders" I think he's also in on it. I couldn't watch the whole thing. They did everything they could to scare the audience and nothing to give them any hope. Even the participation from the hostile audience members seemed designed to scare anyone watching the show. I became enraged and couldn't take it.

    by CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 12:50:54 AM PDT

•  What if they DO pull "something" off?

  It's going to look REAL bad given the current state of affairs....if the Repubs TRY to steal this election, you KNOW that this time there will be a real backlash

  You can BET that even the slightest suspicions of voting fraud will bring screams for "reform" and wholesale dumping of electronic voting - even if you don't have rioting in the streets....

  BUT if the Dems roll over and play dead AGAIN - then they will have lost ALL credibility with the voters and we WILL end up with a defacto dictatorship

  BUT if there is a stink and a real fight and the Repubs pull every dirty trick in the book.... there WILL be screams for real change and what if the Repubs DO hold onto Congress for 2 more years....

  Iraq is a clusterfuck - nothing is going to change it.  NOTHING.  At best Bush will "cut and run" but no matter what happens no amount of spin can make that mess look good.

  The economy is NOT as good as some would like you to believe.... gas prices will begin going up again soon.... interest rates too... people are going to be losing houses - it ain't gonna be pretty.... and so what if corporate profits are up - that only highlights the disparity

  there's NOTHING the Republicans can do to make things materially better in the next two years

  it might actually work out BETTER to LET the Republicans have even MORE rope to hang themselves.....

  just another way of looking at things....

  let's be blunt.... even with the Reichstag burned, the Constitution suspended and all else, the current ruling party simply CAN'T get anything positive accomplished.... they can try and loot some more before they're banished completely but you KNOW that the public has caught on.... the American people aren't THAT stupid

  by xrepub on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 12:44:02 AM PDT

  •  I'd agree that there might be some advantage

    to giving them a bit more rope by winning the next election. For me, I'd worry that they'd do so much more damage that Dems would have an even bigger hole to dig the country out of even has the Republicans dig themselves even deeper.

    Not sure I could take two more years of Republican control. I'd much rather poke a sharp stick in my eye.

    by CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 12:54:10 AM PDT

    •  I'll join you with a sharp stick to the eye

      If we have to live like this for 2 more years.  A friend tried to make xrepub's argument to me that we might do better in '08 if we don't win this year.  I almost started crying.  

      I'm a really superstitious person, so I've had to convince (delude?) myself that it won't happen--that we win neither house.  That way I'll be happily surprised if we do win.  

      As for Rove...I think disenfranchisement or vote stealing are his only options.  There's nothing left in his pocket.  

      by potter on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 01:09:52 AM PDT

  •  But do the dems have what it

    takes to fight them in the streets?
    to bring their guns and courage into an arena where the right controls EVERYTHING? The media, the police, the courts, the MINDS of the 30%?
    WHAT WILL WE DO IF THEY STEAL IT AGAIN?
     

    by axman on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 05:18:46 AM PDT

•  Rove may know this

  I presented a worse case scenario based on the belief that Rove will use the full force and faculties of the US government to win elections.

  Most vote fraud schemes that everyone is talking about are obvious and detectable, not impressive for an evil genius.

  In NSA Domestic Spying & GOP Election Microtargeting I aligned facts of current NSA citizen data-mining with election microtargeting and found they fit like a glove. So Rove could be using NSA citizen spy data in their GOTV campaign to compile lists of hard to find voters that will win congressional control.

  The threatening part is that it may be impossible to prove without congressional over-sight but congressional over-sight may be impossible if they are cheating in this way. So it creates an evil paradox. I always expect "good" to win in the end so I am sure a whistle blower would come forward at some point.

  I only post this now because I doubt anybody will read it this time of night. Everyone tells me Dems will become discouraged by knowing this. If we loose it may become a big topic.

  by ImpeachBushCheney on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 01:20:10 AM PDT

  •  Bush/Rove 'supreme confidence' is worrisome..

    ..if you assume this confidence stems from voting manipulation at the polls, or from polls commissioned by them that show different data than we see each week.

    I do not trust anything right now, and it worries me that these two have such apparent confidence---which I see manifest in Bush's continuing to take steps to undermine our rights as citizens, and his conduct in the war as well.  They act as if they know they will keep power.  How could they think this?

    Good Luck.

    by quantumspin on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 01:45:57 AM PDT

    •  It's psychological warfare

      you should ignore it and do whatever you can to elect dems.

      You don't let Osama scare you every time he says "boo!" It's not like OBL is the boogeyman.  Don't treat Carl any differently.  He isn't the boogeyman either.

      by New Deal democrat on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 04:29:48 AM PDT

  •  ImpeachBushCheney

    Could you x-post That Diary on NION? :)

    Please?

    I think it's very important... :)

    And, I want to Front-Page it on there... :)

    Cheers, :)

    by kraant on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 03:30:12 AM PDT

•  But they were supremely confident about Iraq...

  and Terry Shiavo and Social Security, so I think their judgement could be flawed.

  by murrayewv on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 03:22:14 AM PDT

•  Katie bar the door...

  We are gonna have one hell of an immigration problem in Canada if they do pull it out.

  by DrWolfy on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 04:16:27 AM PDT