You asked for Pennsylvania... I gave you Pennsylvania! Woof!
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And, because I get grief about not pimping my other series, here are the stories in The Basics Series...
New Republican Sales Pitch
DLC Democrats Sales Pitch
City on a Hill
The Napoleonic Strategies of the GOP
The Danger Called Howard Dean
JUMP!
Pennsylvania is a slightly blue state. Still, of its 19 Congressional Districts, 12 are held by Republicans and 7 by Democrats. That's ok though, because we're fielding candidates in all races, and they're taking a bye in three of ours. Plus with the governors race and the senate race going strongly pro-blue, expect some coattail effects downticket.
PA-1: South and Central Philly. Our incumbent Robert Brady, won this one with 86% of the vote or 2 better than Kerry. The reddies aren't bothering.
PA-1: Safe Blue.
PA-2: West Philly. Our incumbent, Chaka Fattah won this one with 88%, or one better than Kerry. The reddies are running Michael Gessner. Honestly, all I can tell you about him is that he is a Jewish lawyer with a wife and three kids. Oh. And no website. Oh, and no chance.
PA-2: Safe Blue.
PA-3: Northwest part of the state including Erie. The red incumbent, Phil English, took 60% last time to Ws 53. Our guy is Steve Porter, who holds two doctoral degrees, in fine arts and in education, and has written over 125 books ranging from theatrical works to political philosophy. His wife is the area coordinator for the seeing eye dogs program, and they raise guide dog pups. He's an educator and administrator, and has won a couple of Grammys, and while he was outraised 15:1, the COH margin is only 4:1, so the reddie has spent over a million to Steve's 60k, and he's running dirty ads that are getting him sued. Only one conclusion to draw.
PA-3: This district ain't as safe Red as people think it is.
PA-4: Suburbs of Pittsburgh. The red incumbent, Melissa Hart, carried 63% to Ws 54. Our guy is Jason Altmire, a 38-year-old dynamo. His latest job, now remember, he's 38, is the Acting Vice President for Government Relations and Community Health for a hospital system with 40,000 employees. He previously worked as a Legislative Assistant for Congressman Pete Peterson of Florida, helping to draft legislation for health care policy. When he was only 25, 25!, he was appointed to a working group for President Clinton's Task Force on National Health Care Reform. He's done an awful lot since then, both business wise and community wise, so I don't want you to think of the guy as a slacker or anything. He's racking up endorsements and the money's not bad at $573k. But Hart's raised 1.8m. Altmire has moved to within 4 (and this was a month ago) and there's all sorts of chatter in this race.
PA-4: Mmmmmmaybe... but even if not, watch this guy.
PA-5: North central portion of the state including State College. This is a very rural district, and the red incumbent, John Peterson, ran unopposed last time. But Bush trounced Kerry 61/39. Our guy is Don Hilliard, previously Jefferson County COmmissioner (1992-6), and Warsaw County Auditor and Assessor, who now has a small tax business. Move along.
PA-5: Safe Red
PA-6: Suburban Philly. The red incumbent,Jim Gerlach, carried this district 51/49 switching the Kerry/Bush 51/48. Our gal is Lois Murphy, an attorney and working mom, who ran against Gerlach last time and came within 2 points of beating him. Strong on women's rights and a deficit hawk, Murphy has become one of the highest ranked challengers in the country. Go, go, go, go!!
PA-6: I smell victory!
PA-7: Suburban Philly. The red incumbent, Curt Weldon, carried this district with 59% of the vote to Ws 47. One popular incumbent. Yeah. In the meantime, we are running one of the strongest candidates on either side in this election, Joe Sestak. If you don't know about Joe, you haven't been here very long. But, what the hell. Here's a snippet. In 31 years in the Navy, and reaching the rank of Vice Admiral (3 Stars), he served six tours in the Atlantic and Pacific Fleets, finally being named to the Joint Chiefs and Director for Defense Policy on the National Security Council. Oh. And he's gonna KICK WELDON'S BUTT.
PA-7: NNNNNNNAAAAAAVVVVVVYYYY BBBBBLLLLLLLLUUUUUUUUEEEEEEEEE
PA-8: Northern Philly suburbs. The red incumbent, Michael Fitzpatrick, took with district with 55% of the vote, but Kerry squeaked by Bush with 51%. our guy is Patrick Murphy, a veteran of the Iraq Debaqcle, West Point professor, and holder of a Bronze Star. He is now an attorney in private practice. In a recent poll, Murphy was up by 4, in others he's down by 9. One way or the other, this is a winnable district, and it's GOTV time!
PA-8: Trending Blue
PA-9: South central portion of the state including Altoona. The red incumbent, Bill Shuster, took 70% of the vote last time, beating W by 3. Our guy is Tony Barr, a Special Ed teacher who stepped up when he heard that the Dems weren't going to run a candidate in his district. He organized a successful write-in campaign. Honestly, he's doing better than I thought and he's garnered some good endorsements. Still...
PA-9: Safe Red
PA-10: Northeast potion of the state, the Central Susquehanna Valley. This is a very rural district, and the red incumbent, Don Sherwood, ran unopposed last time. But Bush did well here with 60%. Our guy is Chris Carney, a Lieutenant Commander in the Navy Reseves, Senior Terrorism and Intelligence Advisor at the Pentagon, Professor of Political Science, husband and father. Now, Chris has done a great job raising $875k, which may sound like a drop in the bucket to next to Sherwood's 1.5m. But, really, if it was a drop in the bucket, there'd be no reason for Sherwood to pull out his checkbook yesterday and write his campaign a check for $200k. Really, if a $600k differential isn't enough, I don't see what difference another $200k is going to make. But, then, I'm not an incumbent down by 9.
PA-10: Blue, baby!
PA-11: Northeast portion of the state including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Our incumbent, Paul Kanjorski, ran unopposed last time, but Kerry only bested Bush by 5. You'd figure the reddies would work hard here, and they are running Dr. Joseph Leonardi, a gun ownership, um, enthusiast, a build-the-wall-and-keep-Mexicans-out (although, seems to me, he's a lot closer to Canada), and the winner of several Republican award, including the NRCC Physician of the Year Award. This is just scary to me. Fortunately, Kanjorski is going to cruise to victory.
PA-11: Safe Blue
PA-12: Southwestern portion of the state including Johnstown. Our incumbent, John Murtha, ran unopposed last time, but Kerry took 51% of the vote. The red opponent, Diane Irey (check cynic's diary on her) is looking for people with video cameras who are wizes at flash editing. Send a web-ready commercial. You might get an iPod! Meantime, why not view a 26 year old videotape of the corrupt Murtha on the take from AbScam (with the caption "You Don't Know Jack"). Good heavens! The man's been in Congress since 1974! I think the good people of PA-12 know Jack just fine. And she deserves the whupping she's gonna get in this 2:1 Dem District.
PA-12: Safe Blue.
PA-13: Northeast Philly. Our incumbent, Allyson Schwartz, carried this district with 56%. The reddies are running Raj Peter Bhakta, an immigration hawk, and contestant on the game show "The Apprentice". Nothing to see here. Move along.
PA-13: Safe Blue.
PA-14: Pittsburgh. Our guy, Mike Doyle, ran unopposed last time. He's running unopposed this time. He'll probably run unopposed next time.
PA-14: Safe Blue.
PA-15: The Eastern portion of the state including Allentown and Bethlehem. The red incumbent, Charlie Dent, took 59% of the vote in a district Kerry won 50/49. This is a district where I'd expect us to try for. Our guy is Charles Dertinger, a member of the Northampton County Council, and Union electrician, who waged a successful write-in campaign to get on the ballot. Having raised 56k to Dent's 1.2m, I didn't expect to see fireworks when I started digging in, but Dertinger is a strong candidate who doesn't let things go by unchallenged. Dent originally wasn't going to grace the debates with his presence because, of course, debates only help challengers... so I was surprised to see they changed his schedule to accommodate it. Hmmmmmmmmm.
PA-15: Maybe not so safe Red.
PA-16: Southeast part of the state including Lancester. The red incumbent, Joe Pitts, took this district with 64% of the vote to Ws 61. Our gal is Lois Herr, daughter of the legendary football coach. She worked for the OMB under President Ford and served on the County Planning Commission and the Board of Barber Examiners. She also owns and operates a farm. She's raised about half the money of her opponent, but, she beats him on individual contributions. Pitts has lousy re-elect numbers, but I don't know if Herr's name is out everywhere it needs to be. If it is, she wins. If not, well... The difference is money, of course, and she's asked Rahm for more, but, well.......
PA-16: We'll see.
PA-17: East central portion of the state including Harrisburg and Lebanon. Our guy, Tim Holden, took 59% of the vote whereas Bush did 58. This is a nice red district that the reddies should be working for, and, for once, it looks like they are, um, well they were. They were running Major Matt Wertz, who dropped out of the race for medical reasons, leaving Holden pretty much unopposed.
PA-17: Safe Blue.
PA-18: Suburbs of Pittsburgh. The red incumbent, Tim Murphy, took 63%, besting W by 9. Our guy is Chad Kluko, the former Director of Broadcast Operations for the Fox Television Network. He went from there to the Wireless biz, working for Verizon as the Executive Director of National Operations. He's raised 95k to the reddie's 1.5m, but has very little CoH. Without cash to get out his name or his message, there's not a lot happening here. More's the pity.
PA-18: Safe Red.
PA-19: South central portion of the state including York and Gettysburg. The red incumbent, Todd Platts, ran unopposed last time, but Bush did nicely with 64%. Our guy is Phil Avillo, a Marine Corps Captain in Vietnam, who, in flying nearly 70 combat missions, received a Purple Heart, three Air Medals, and a Navy Commendation Medal with a Combat "V". Since coming home, he has served as the president of a school board, Professor of American History, and Chair of the History and Political Science Department. And he's only 100k down on fundraising. From what I'm seeing Avillo has Platts on the defensive... but not on the ropes.
PA-19: Could prove interesting...