Almost every election cycle has at least one surprise race. You know the kind of race I am talking about. Its one of those races where a candidate who is looking okay, but still trailing by a decent margin manages to pull off the upset win. My personal pick for sleeper this year is Jim Pederson in Arizona, who if polls are to be believed, is closing to within the mid single digits of John Kyl. I like Pederson for a couple of reasons. One is, of course, money. He's got lots of his own. I also think that Napolitano will lead the top of the ticket to a romp. Also, with the GOP basically forfeiting one seat, Rick Renzi under investigation and J.D. Hayworth in a tighter than expected race, Pederson stands a chance of picking up more votes in those districts too.
That said, I think there are other races where the upset is possible.
VT: Scudder Parker is only ten down in a new poll. Since VT is so blue and the congressional seat and Senate seat are trending towards the more liberal candidates, I think he has a shot.
TX: Chris Bell has closed to about ten in the recent polls. This is a wacky four way race, so anything can happen. Maybe Kinky will collapse and a lot of his voters will realize that if you want change, Bell is the real choice.
FL: Jim Davis is surging and with the recent rumours surrounding Charlie Christ, an upset is possible here. (Note, this could be a race where Demos wil kick themselves in the ass for not spending more time here)
Nevada: The whole state seems full of them. The governor's race seems winnable now and Jack Carter isn't too far behind if we get a so-called wave. Two congressional districts seem in play as well.
Anyone else have any where we could pull the upset?