With one week to go, here is how the professional non-partisan forecasters see the races. The consensus is that the House will flip to Democratic control, and the question is by how much. This is important both in terms of ability to govern in 2007-08 and in terms of keeping control after 2008. If you look at the top of this list, you will see quite a few generally Republican seats Democrats are poised to pick up this year due to unusual circumstances. (TX-22, OH-18, and PA-10 leap immediately to mind). These will be at the top of the 2008 GOP target list, and some will likely flip back in '08. Thus a majority of a few seats is precarious both for governing and for holding. Once you start seeing net gains of 24 or more, however, the GOP would need 10 defectors to stop the majority from doing what it wants next Congress and a net of 10 seats to wrest back control in 2008. Charlie Cook predicts a net gain of 20-35 seats for the Democrats; Stu Rothenberg says 18-28 with the caveat that larger gains are possible; and Larry Sabato says 21-26 seats.
The totals: there are now 11 GOP seats the consensus puts in the Dems' column (up from 9 two weeks ago); 18 more are pure tossups (up from 17 two weeks ago); another 20 give the GOP the smallest of edges (up from 16); and 16 more are competitive with a potential for an upset. All told,
75 GOP seats make various analysts' watch lists. In addition, I add 15 more longshot possibilities where the Dem is within 20 in indy polling and/or the race has some dynamic I think could conceivably lead to an upset.
On the Dem side, according to these analysts, no races are tossups or in the GOP column; 5 give the Dem a small edge (down from 7); another 9 are competitive with upset potential. All told, 22 Dem seats make somebody's watch list, and I added 2 more to watch.
As always, I include poll numbers from nonpartisan polls and my thoughts on potential upset races to watch that did not make any of the pros' lists. Bottom line, the Dems are solidly positioned to win control of the House and could approach the GOP's 1994 gain of 54. As of now, my best prediction of the most likely outcome is around +35-40.
There is one big change in the scoring this time; the Washington Post's Chris Cilizza has moved from a "top 20 races" list to listing 39 races as leaning to one party or the other, or being tossups. He acknowledges that there are other races out there with the potential to change hands, but he limits his list to those (a top 35 list and 4 more races that just missed). All told, Cilizza lists 36 GOP seats and 3 Dem seats (IL-08, GA-08, GA-12).
Anyone who has read one of these before can skip to the ratings.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), the New York Times and Cilizza have only a two-tiered rating system ("tossup" and "leans [party]"), and the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd now produces a top 60 list.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean hold races, and 15 points for likely hold races. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean takeover, 60 points for a pure lean takeover, and 75 for a likely takeover. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean hold category. I assigned 40 points for a tossup and 20 for a lean rating under the Times' and Cilizza's two-tier system.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Obviously, the higher a seat's total points, the more likely it is to change parties. Last week's point totals are in parentheses for comparison. Incumbents are denoted with an asterisk.
Update: Man, they keep changing things! Now includes the latest Cook Report upgrades.
Here's what they say 8 days from Election Day:
GOP Seats
Likely Dem (525+)
1. Arizona 08 (OPEN R) (545) (1-510) (Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R)) Poll: Giffords 48, Graf 38 (Zimmermann 10/20-23)
Lean Dem (410+)
2. Colorado 07 (OPEN R) (488) (4-424) (Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R)) Poll: Perlmutter 51, O'Donnell 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
3. Indiana 08 (Hostettler (R)) (478) (5-409) (Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R)) Poll: Ellsworth 52, Hostettler 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Research 2000 10/17-20)
4. Texas 22 (OPEN R) (464) (2-432) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in)) Poll: Lampson 36, Sekula-Gibbs 35 (Zogby 10/23-24)
5. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon (R)) (461) (15t-324) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R)) Poll: Sestak 52, Weldon 44 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
6. Ohio 18 (OPEN R) (460) (9-369) (Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R)) Poll: Space 48, Padgett 39 (RT Strategies 10/8-10, Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2)
7. Iowa 01 (OPEN R) (455) (6-395) (Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R)) Poll: Whalen 42, Braley 39 (Reuters/Zogby 9/30-10/2, Selzer & Co. 9/10-13)
8. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood (R)) (432) (7t-387) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R)) Poll: Carney 48, Sherwood 38 (Lycoming Coll. 10/22-26, Franklin & Marshall Coll. 10/19-23)
9. Indiana 02 (Chocola (R)) (427) (7t-387) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R)) Poll: Donnelly 49, Chocola 45 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Research 2000 10/16-17)
10. New York 24 (OPEN R) (411) (18-314) (Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R)) Poll: Arcuri 53, Meier 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Dem (400-409)
11. Florida 16 (Foley (R)) (409) (3-428) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Joe Negron (R) (incumbent Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot) Poll: Mahoney 48, Foley/Negron 43 (Research 2000 10/11-13, RT Strategies 10/1)
Tossups (275-399)
12. Florida 13 (OPEN R) (393) (24-284) (Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R)) Poll: Jennings 49, Buchanan 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
13. North Carolina 11 (Taylor (R)) (376) (14-328) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor* (R)) Poll: Shuler 53, Taylor 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
14. Indiana 09 (Sodrel (R)) (375) (13-335) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R)) Poll: Hill 48, Sodrel 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/20-22, Research 2000 10/17-20)
15. Ohio 15 (Pryce (R)) (369) (12-337) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R)) Poll: Kilroy 53, Pryce 41 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
16. New York 26 (Reynolds (R)) (366) (10-347) (Jack Davis (D) vs. Tom Reynolds* (R)) Poll: Reynolds 50, Davis 45 (SurveyUSA 10/23-25)
17. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach (R)) (364) (11-343) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R)) Poll: Murphy 51, Gerlach 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
18. Connecticut 04 (Shays (R)) (348) (22-290) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R)) Poll: Shays 48, Farrell 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Univ. of Connecticut, 10/16-22)
19. New Mexico 01 (Wilson (R)) (347) (17-318) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R)) Poll: Madrid 50, Wilson 44 (Research & Polling 10/17-19, SurveyUSA 10/13-16, RT Strategies 10/8-10)
20. Florida 22 (Shaw (R)) (345) (15t-324) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R)) Poll: Shaw 48, Klein 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Research 2000 10/16-18)
21. Illinois 06 (OPEN R) (342) (19-306) (Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)) Poll: Roskam 45, Duckworth 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Daily Herald 10/19-24, WGN/Chicago Tribune 10/14-18)
22. Minnesota 06 (OPEN R) (340) (25-271) (Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R)) Poll: Bachmann 48, Wetterling 45 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/22-24)
23. Washington 08 (Reichert (R)) (338) (21-296) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R)) Poll: Burner 48, Reichert 48 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/14-17)
24. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN R) (337) (28-244) (Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R)) Poll: Kagen 47, Gard 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, St. Norbert Coll. 10/17-25)
25. Connecticut 02 (Simmons (R)) (329) (20-304) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R)) Poll: Courtney 48, Simmons 45 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Univ. of Connecticut, 10/12-18)
26. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick (R)) (304) (30t-213) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R)) Poll: Fitzpatrick 47, Murphy 45 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Franklin & Marshall Coll. 10/19-23)
27. Virginia 02 (Drake (R)) (303) (23-288) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R)) Poll: Kellam 47, Drake 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Mason-Dixon 10/23-24)
28t. Connecticut 05 (Johnson (R)) (293) (29-232) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R)) Poll: Murphy 46, Johnson 45 (Univ. of Connecticut, 10/24-28)
28t. Kentucky 04 (Davis (R)) (293) (26-270) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R)) Poll: Lucas 47, Davis 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/21-23)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Rep (265-274)
30. Ohio 01 (Chabot (R)) (271) (27-246) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R)) Poll: Cranley 48, Chabot 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
Lean Rep (150-264)
31. Ohio 02 (Schmidt (R)) (258) (48-93) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R) Poll: Schmidt 50, Wulsin 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/14-17)
32. New York 20 (Sweeney (R)) (234) (30t-213) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R)) Poll: Sweeney 47, Gillibrand 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Siena Coll. 10/16-17)
33. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht (R)) (229) (45-107) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R)) Poll: Gutknecht 50, Walz 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
34. Colorado 04 (Musgrave (R)) (225) (36-169) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R)) Poll: Musgrave 46, Paccione 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25,
SurveyUSA 10/14-17)
35. New Hampshire 02 (Bass (R)) (218) (38-151) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R)) Poll: Hodes 50, Bass 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
36t. California 11 (Pombo (R)) (217) (35-179) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R)) Poll: McNerney 48, Pombo 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
36t. Kentucky 03 (Northup (R)) (217) (39-142) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R)) Poll: Yarmuth 47, Northup 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Bluegrass Poll 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/16-18)
38. Arizona 05 (Hayworth (R)) (213) (33-182) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth* (R)) Poll: Hayworth 48, Mitchell 45 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
39t. Nevada 03 (Porter (R)) (211) (40t-140) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R)) Poll: Porter 51, Hafen 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
39t. New York 29 (Kuhl (R)) (211) (32-195) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R)) Poll: Massa 53, Kuhl 42 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
41. Nevada 02 (OPEN R) (192) (37-159) (Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R)) Poll: Heller 48, Derby 40 (Research 2000 10/23-25)
42. Texas 23 (177) (34-180) (Several Dems (D) vs. Henry Bonilla* (R))
43. Wyoming at Large (Cubin (R)) (168) (44-114) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R)) Poll: Cubin 44, Trauner 39 (Aspen Media 10/18-25, Mason-Dixon 10/9-12)
44. Idaho 01 (OPEN R) (159) (53t-60) (Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R)) Poll: Sali 39, Grant 37 (Mason-Dixon 10/23-25)
45. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart (R)) (158) (49-91) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R)) Poll: Hart 49, Altmire 45 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Susquehanna 10/21-22)
46. New York 25 (Walsh (R)) (150) (47-98) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R)) Poll: Maffei 53, Walsh 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
Tweeners, Lean Rep to Likely Rep (140-149)
47. Arizona 01 (Renzi (R)) (147) (53t-60) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R)) Poll: Renzi 47, Simon 39 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Northern Ariz. U 10/20-22)
48. California 04 (Doolittle (R)) (146) (40t-140) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R)) Poll: Doolittle 50, Brown 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, SurveyUSA 10/20-22)
49. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson (R)) (140) (40t-140) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R)) Poll: Ferguson 46, Stender 43 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
Likely Rep (55-139)
50. Colorado 05 (OPEN R) (136) (53t-60) (Jay Fawcett (D) vs. Doug Lamborn (R)) Poll: Lamborn 44, Fawcett 38 (SurveyUSA 10/16-18, Mason-Dixon 10/3-7)
51. New York 19 (Kelly (R)) (130) (43-129) (John Hall (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R)) Poll: Hall 49, Kelly 47 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
52. California 50 (Bilbray (R)) (128) (60-58) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R)) Poll: Bilbray 49, Busby 46 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
53. Kentucky 02 (Lewis (R) (110) (46-101) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
54. Washington 05 (McMorris (R)) (89) (64t-15) (Peter Goldmark (D) vs. Cathy McMorris* (R)) Poll: McMorris 51, Goldmark 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
55. Indiana 03 (Souder (R)) (80) (nr-0) (Tom Hayhurst (D) vs. Mark Souder* (R)) Poll: Souder 52, Hayhurst 40 (Research 2000 10/24-26)
56. New York 03 (King (R)) (75) (50t-75) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R)) Poll: King 51, Mejias 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
57. North Carolina 08 (Hayes (R)) (62) (53t-60) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R)) Poll: Kissell 48, Hayes 44 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
58t. Florida 08 (Keller (R)) (60) (53t-60) (Charlie Stuart (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
58t. Florida 09 (OPEN R) (60) (50t-75) (Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R)) Poll: Bilirakis 57, Busansky 36 (SurveyUSA 10/16-18)
58t. Illinois 10 (Kirk (R)) (60) (61t-45) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R)) Poll: Seals 48, Kirk 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
58t. Iowa 02 (Leach (R)) (60) (53t-60) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R)) Poll: Leach 50, Loebsack 48 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
58t. Kansas 02 (Ryun (R)) (60) (70-2) (Nancy Boyda (D) vs. Jim Ryun* (R))
58t. Virginia 10 (Wolf (R)) (60) (52-61) (Judy Feder (D) vs. Frank Wolf* (R)) Poll: Wolf 47, Feder 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
64. Ohio 12 (Tiberi (R)) (56) (69-7) (Bob Shamansky (D) vs. Pat Tiberi* (R)) Poll: Tiberi 51, Shamansky 46 (RT Strategies 10/23-25)
Tweeners, Likely to Safe Rep (31-54)
65. Nebraska 03 (OPEN R) (46) (nr-0) (Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Adrian Smith (R))
66t. Minnesota 02 (Kline (R)) (45) (61t-45) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R)) Poll: Kline 50, Rowley 42 (SurveyUSA 10/13-16)
66t. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry (R)) (45) (53t-60) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
68t. Michigan 07 (OPEN R) (30) (nr-0) (Sharon Renier (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R))
68t. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley (R)) (30) (63-30) (Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R)) Poll: Bradley 49, Shea-Porter 37 (Becker Inst. 10/6-8)
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
70t. Louisiana 07 (Boustany (R)) (15) (64t-15) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
70t. Maryland 06 (Bartlett (R)) (15) (nr-0) (Andrew Duck (D) vs. Roscoe Bartlett* (R))
70t. Michigan 08 (Rogers (R)) (15) (64t-15) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
70t. New Jersey 05 (Garrett (R)) (15) (64t-15) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
70t. New York 13 (Fossella (R)) (15) (nr-0) (Steve Harrison (D) vs. Vito Fossella* (R))
70t. West Virginia 02 (Capito (R)) (15) (64t-15) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
Other races unranked by the pros but with independent polling putting the challenger within 20 points
Florida 24 (Feeney (R)) (Clint Curtis (D) vs. Tom Feeney* (R)) Poll: Feeney 45, Curtis 43 (Zogby 10/20-21)
Illinois 14 (Hastert (R)) (John Laesch (D) vs. Dennis Hastert* (R)) Poll: Hastert 52, Laesch 42 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
California 26 (Dreier (R)) (Cynthia Matthews (D) vs. David Dreier* (R)) Poll: Dreier 48, Matthews 35 (SurveyUSA, Aug. 16)
Virginia 05 (Goode (R)) (Al Weed (D) vs. Virgil Goode* (R)) Poll: Goode 56, Weed 40 (SurveyUSA 10/8-10)
Florida 05 (Brown-Waite (R)) (John Russell (D) vs. Ginny Brown-Waite* (R)) Poll: Brown-Waite 55, Russell 41 (SurveyUSA, 10/27-30)
Illinois 19 (Shimkus (R)) (Danny Stover (D) vs. John Shimkus* (R)) Poll: Shimkus 53, Stover 36 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
Montana at Large (Rehberg (R)) (Monica Lindeen (D) vs. Dennis Rehberg* (R)) Poll: Rehberg 53, Lindeen 33 (Mason-Dixon 9/26-28)
Other races unranked by the pros that nonetheless are worth watching (says me, roughly in this order)
Illinois 11 (Weller (R)) (John Pavich (D) vs. Jerry Weller* (R))
Colorado 06 (Tancredo (R)) (Bill Winter (D) vs. Tom Tancredo* (R))
Iowa 04 (Latham (R)) (Selden Spencer (D) vs. Tom Latham* (R))
Ohio 03 (Turner (R)) (Dick Chema (D) vs. Mike Turner* (R))
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg (R)) (Nancy Skinner (D) vs. Joe Knollenberg* (R))
Texas 14 (Paul (R)) (Shane Sklar (D) vs. Ron Paul* (R))
California 45 (Bono (R)) (David Roth (D) vs. Mary Bono* (R))
Illinois 15 (Johnson (R)) (David Gill (D) vs. Tim Johnson* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (275-399)
None
Tweeners, Tossup to Lean Dem (265-274)
None
Lean Dem (150-264)
1. Georgia 12 (Barrow (D)) (227) (1-207) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
2. Illinois 08 (Bean (D)) (214) (4-192) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R)) Poll: Bean 47, McSweeney 38 (RT Strategies 10/23-25, Daily Herald 10/18-24, WGN/Chicago Tribune 10/14-18)
3. Georgia 08 (Marshall (D)) (213) (3-201) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
4. Iowa 03 (Boswell (D)) (192) (2-206) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R)) Poll: Boswell 53, Lamberti 42 (Research 2000 9/11-12, RT Strategies 8/27-29)
Tweener, Lean to Likely Dem (140-149)
5. Vermont at Large (OPEN D) (148) (5-178) (Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)) Poll: Welch 51, Rainville 41 (Research 2000 10/23-24)
Likely Dem (55-139)
6. Louisiana 03 (Melancon (D)) (110) (8-125) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
7. Texas 17 (Edwards (D)) (75) (6-142) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R)) Poll: Edwards 55, Taylor 38 (RT Strategies 10/8-10)
8t. Illinois 17 (OPEN D) (60) (12-75) (Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
8t. Ohio 06 (OPEN D) (60) (10-95) (Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R)) Poll: Wilson 64, Blasdel 32 (SurveyUSA 10/16-18)
8t. South Carolina 05 (Spratt (D)) (60) (9-110) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R)) Poll: Spratt 59, Norman 35 (Clemson Univ. 10/17-25, SurveyUSA 10/9-11)
8t. West Virginia 01 (Mollohan (D)) (60) (7-136) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R)) Poll: Mollohan 52, Wakim 42 (RT Strategies 8/27-29)
Tweener, Likely to Safe Dem (31-54)
12. South Dakota at Large (Herseth (D)) (50) (14-50) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
13t. Colorado 03 (Salazar (D)) (45) (11-80) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R)) Poll: Salazar 52, Tipton 41 (SurveyUSA 9/15-17)
13t. Oregon 05 (Hooley (D)) (45) (15-45) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
15. Indiana 07 (Carson (D)) (35) (16-35) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R)) Poll: Carson 45, Dickerson 44 (Research 2000 10/17-20, Selzer & Co. 10/16-18)
Other races listed by two handicappers
16t. Kansas 03 (Moore (D)) (30) (17t-30) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Chuck Ahner (R))
16t. Louisiana 02 (Jefferson (D)) (30) (17t-30) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
16t. Ohio 13 (OPEN D) (30) (13-65) (Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
16t. Utah 02 (Matheson (D)) (30) (17t-30) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R)) Poll: Matheson 60, Christensen 24 (Dan Jones & Assoc. 9/24-28)
16t. Washington 02 (Larsen (D)) (30) (17t-30) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R)) Poll: Larsen 60, Roulstone 35 (SurveyUSA 10/2-3)
Other races that one handicapper listed
21t. Maryland 03 (OPEN D) (15) (21-15) (John Sarbanes (D) vs. John White (R))
21t. North Carolina 13 (Miller (D)) (15) (nr-0) (Brad Miller* (D) vs. Vernon Robinson (R))
Other race not listed but with independent polling putting the Dem's lead under 20 points
Arkansas 02 (Snyder) (Vic Snyder* (D) vs. Andy Mayberry (R)) Poll: Snyder 56, Mayberry 42 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 20)
Other race to watch (says me)
Hawaii 02 (OPEN D) (Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob Hogue (R))