VA-SEN: Gallup Poll Has James Webb Inside Margin of Error

After two depressing Survey USA and Reuters polls showing the Allen/Senate race getting out of reach and the incumbent pulling away, this morning's Gallup survey brings welcome news.  Conducted for USA Today from September 27 to October 1, the results show Sen. Allen leading 48-45. This is well within the poll's 5% margin for error.

The results come from 597 live-dialed likely voters. The last Reuters poll put Allen at an 11-point lead, while the Survey USA poll had him with a six-point lead. Now with Webb competitive in campaign dollars (albeit behind), he is in a good position for the final weeks of the campaign.

To defeat George Allen, we will need to counter his air war. Please consider giving to James Webb today, so we can rid the US Senate of the man who popularized the term "macaca" and put in a real American who will get things done in Washington.

•  Tip Jar. n/t

  by Red Sox on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 06:59:24 AM PDT

  •  I was curious, yesterday

    when Blitzkreig interviewed Webb, he said "acandidate in a very tight and competititve race in VA".  Wolff must have had an early peak at the Gallup numbers.

    Also, remember, Gallup tilts "R" in their sample distribution model...

    by Granny Doc on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:17:32 AM PDT

•  part of the problem here

  has also got to be the nature of polling. i have no land line and have never been polled. i think there is something similar going on with television ratings...lots of idiots watch tv, and lots of idiots watch bill orally...i think progressives watch less tv in general, and therefore commentators like olberman, who require some thinking, get lower ratings...bit of a rant here, but thanks for the good news!

  by DeweyCounts on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:02:58 AM PDT

  •  Forget the Polls

    They indicate it is anyone's race. Which means that a few votes, some volunteer effort, and a bit more campaign funding will make the differnce.  We (all of us) brought this race from a double-digit deficit to a toss up.  PUSH! That is a Democratic Senate in front of you.

    by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:00:58 AM PDT

•  I'm still skeptical

  that Webb can win.  If after all the stuff that's been revealed about Allen and he STILL has the lead, I don't think that's a good sign for Webb.  

  Virginia is a RED RED RED state.  I know, I know...some have said it's changing, but I just don't buy it yet.  

  Allen is clearly a racist and a Klan member.  He's like David Duke.  And yet he's still got a lead.  What does that say about Virginia?  

  by Dash Riprock on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:10:47 AM PDT

  •  Virginia is Red...

    ...but less so than in the past. As Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties continue to lurch left, Virginia will continue being competitive.

    Allen is clearly a racist and a Klan member.  He's like David Duke.  And yet he's still got a lead.  What does that say about Virginia?

    He's not a Klan member, although he did take that CCC picture. What he is, however, is a disgrace. Please don't tar this great commonwealth with Allen's stain. What the race's dynamic says is that despite Mr. Webb's lackluster campaign, he can still do what he does best--lead...this time in the United States Senate. Help my adopted state change its representation for the better. We don't want to be punished just because James Webb would be ten times the senator that he is a campaigner.

    by Red Sox on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:22:42 AM PDT

    •  Not dues paying member, but part of the diaspora

      and he has the philosophy and propinquity down. What else do we need to say he's of the Klan (if not in the Klan)?

      by Xapulin on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:53:09 AM PDT

  •  The Cook Political Report - seen it?

    They have moved the Virginia Senate race to a "Toss Up"

    We are in the midst of a key battle that will turn the Senate Democratic and you want to pontificate about stupid pointless shit.  How about this? You send Webb $25, and we'll do the heavy lifting for you.

    by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:26:53 AM PDT

    •  PA -- Huh???

      Cook has the PA race as a toss-up, but Casey has been maintaining consistent leads for some time now.

      by RickT on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:40:13 AM PDT

      •  Margin of Error

        Santorum and Allen are both in the margin-of-error zone with their lead.  It is very volatile - Iraq/Foley/and the latest Job's report are at play day-to-day. Vitally important to get involved and sell your candidate.

        by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:47:00 AM PDT

    •  Pontificate?

      I don't think so, I'm talking practicalities.  If Allen still has a lead (even within the margin of error) after we've learned that he's a racist, Klan-loving (if not a member of it) yahoo, then it's pretty clear that he's got a good shot at surviving the race because his constituents don't think it's a big deal to use the N word or put deer heads in mailboxes.   All good ol' boy fun....

      Cook has Talent in MO as a tossup, and the Dems are not going to win that one.  And Casey is crushing Santorum in PA.

      by Dash Riprock on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 09:26:30 AM PDT

  •  He also blew a big wad of cash

    In the last couple of weeks with ad after ad after ad.  I am confident that Webb can pull ahead once he really starts hitting the air and stays there.

    by PaulVA on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:26:57 AM PDT

  •  keep in mind

    that NoVa is expanding so fast that once 'red' counties are turning blue faster than bush tells a lie -- Kaine was able to get prince william and loudon as well as some other 'red' areas i believe.

    NoVa went for Webb overwhelmingly over Harris which Harris should have taken...

    I only hope so much that NoVa will do its part in a big way for Webb in Nov.

    i am proud to be a driving billboard for Webb and Andy Hurst (VA-11) as my stickers are very prominient on my car supporting them.

    i have also talked with about 5-6 co-workers about Webb and the need to get the NoVa out there.

    i dont know really interact with a lot of people in general, but i know at least a dozen people that will be voting for Webb.

    by chiefsjen on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:52:19 AM PDT

    •  Expand NOVA lead, introduce himself downstate

      We are working on the rural areas now.  Small town folks that are just getting engaged. Buying TV time in the those markets will be key.  That and phone banking. We really need for those in the "safe" areas to contribute for the push on the rural front.

      by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:11:56 AM PDT

  •  What it says about America, not Virginia

    It says that most people aren't too attuned to politics, many screen out bad news about politicians, and they will continue to vote for the party and the individual image they think will best represent them. There are lots of conservative people who don't want to believe the truth about Allen or don't care, and so they'll continue to vote for him.

    I've seen similar "dog whistle" racists win elections here in Massachusetts so I can't fault Virginia for sticking in its rut.

    As it stands, I think Webb has at best an even shot of winning, but we've seen George Allen's fake reputation utterly destroyed and his Presidential hopes eviscerted. That alone is a victory. I've seen this guy for the sadistic, overprivileged bully he is for years and am so gratified that Americans know it, too. I have to admit that I didn't believe the racism was such a part of him until this year. I thought he was merely callous and opportunistic.

    by brittain33 on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:56:06 AM PDT

    •  Victory means Allen loses

      Nothing else matters. If Allen wins he will rebuild his Ronald Reagan facade and push for the Presidency. We end it here, in Virginia.  

      by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:05:44 AM PDT

      •  Good luck

        We hope for the best and victory for Webb is definitely within reach. Webb's a solid candidate and Virginia is open to change.

        However, I'm pretty confident the Republican moneymen and power players have already bailed on Allen. Even if he hadn't revealed his true colors, his selling points were the same as W's and those are looking mighty stale these days.

        by brittain33 on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:10:51 AM PDT

•  A word about Webb's support

  In a word, it has been "breathtaking". Thank you all so much.  

  Jim is doing this campaign with the help of 20,000 individual volunteers - many of them Kossaks. He has raised 3.5 M in this quarter, and a huge amount since America learned what Virginia activists knew - George Allen is an arrogant, elitist bully, with a racist history, and a penchant for doing what George Bush tells him to do.

  You won't find a more devoted group of grassroot volunteers in the Nation, and with your help we are going to press Jim Webb's advantage to a win.

  Please visit Jim's webb site, learn more, and contributeto the best Senator money CAN'T buy!

  by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:39:55 AM PDT

  •  Webb is an amazing man....

    I've attended 2 of his rallies and met him both times -- each time he posed for pictures with me, shook my hand, and autographed a webb sticker for me.

    he is a humble, thoughtful, brilliant man and I am honored that he is our candidate.

    go webb!  go andy hurst!

    by chiefsjen on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:57:51 AM PDT

•  I want to see polls presented differently

  The margin of error, I think, is a useful but ultimately annoying way to present the results.  I think you can present the poll, note the margin of error, and then give the probabilities that one candidate or the other is ahead.  "Within the margin of error" is a nice benchmark, but there's still a significant probability Allen is ahead.  I want to know what it is.

  by Mikey on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:47:33 AM PDT

  •  Yeah well, Allen is the incumbent

    We can assume that he has the advantage in a close race.  And you could spend thousands to increase the poll population and confidence interval, or you could send the bucks to Webb and let him buy ads to convince Virginians to kick the bums out.

    Webb for Senate

    by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:55:36 AM PDT

    •  I have given Webb money

      But my suggestion doesn't have anything to do with spending more money, just doing the statistics differently.  This poll result, with no more information, can show how close we are, and the odds that we are behind.  I'd just like to see it reported.

      by Mikey on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:12:34 AM PDT

      •  Thanks Mikey!

        I assume we are behind. Or so close that a butterfly's wings could push it either way.

        by Bubby on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:15:36 AM PDT

    •  Here's the chart

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      There's a 72% chance that Allen is ahead.  That's what I wanted to know.  I think it's more useful than "+- 5"

      by Mikey on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 08:16:23 AM PDT

  •  margin of error

    i'm by no means an expert -- but the margin of error isn't necessarily what we think it is...

    as i've read it's more that there is a % of time (say 95%) of the time that the 5 pts (let's say) is "accurate" -- whereas 5% of the time, the difference between them is much greater...

    feel free to correct me, but i dont think it means what we "think" it means.

    by chiefsjen on Fri Oct 06, 2006 at 07:56:00 AM PDT