Much has been said about the upcoming cultural war on Civil Unions. Most conclude that this will hurt Dean as a candidate in the general election. Here are my thoughts on this.
- There is no question that Civil Unions is an uncomfortable topic for most Americans. Ads featuring guys kissing alongside a picture of the Dem Nominee will hurt.
- Dean is certainly more vulnerable on this topic than other Dems, but in all honesty, only marginally. All of the other Dems basically endorse Dean's position. I see no reason why the same ads wouldn't be run attacking them as a risk to "the Family" (whatever that means), and quoting their support of Civil Unions. With Gephardt they can even say, "the Gay Agenda is in his family, and he will harm our country for his homosexual daughter. This why Dick Gephardt was once against gay marriage, but now leads the fight for it." (Sponsored by the Concerned Mothers Coalition or some other bogus group to that effect).
- In addition to thinking all the candidates are vulnerable, I also think Dean is more prepared to deal with the issue when it happens. And he has an uncanny ability to define a debate, which is clearly the most critical aspect of handling this issue.
3. Making Civil Unions into a cultural war is a major risk for Republicans as well. I can think of three big reasons for this:
- A good chunk of the Republican coalition is made of tax cut voters, many of whom won't want to hear this. Certainly the over 1 million gays who voted for Bush in 2000 (per exit polls) won't want to hear it. Not to mention their family and friends. In other words, there is a sizable voting block for R's to lose on this as well.
- There is the potential for a LOT of money to spill into the Dem side if this happens. Go ahead and threaten the group of Americans with the largest disposable income (many double income - no kids). Self-defense is the most basic human instinct, trumping even holding onto your money. I think it's easy to overlook the potential size of this effect.
- Tell me how the White House responds to this:
(Hypothetical) At a press conference yesterday, Dean addressed criticism of his stance on Civil Unions. His statement will be featured in a new media-blitz ad campaign that will air across the country next week. "My position is the same as that of Dick Cheney. I feel this is an issue of equal rights for all Americans, not just the ones everyone agrees with. That's why, when the Vermont Supreme Court ordered it, I supported legal Unions but not gay marriage; I'm not looking to make a cultural statement, but just to enforce the principles that make this America. Equal rights. That's why even Dick Cheney thinks states should be allowed to decide on their own whether or not they'll have legal Unions. He said, "I also wrestle with the extent to which there ought to be legal sanction of those relationships. I think we ought to do everything we can to tolerate and accommodate whatever kind of relationships people want to enter into." That's pretty much my position.
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-(This, folks, is the reason the Dem nominee HAS TO turn down federally matching funds and maintain the ablity to buy ads between April and August).
-I hate to corner Dick Cheney for making a tolerant statement. But if they play war, we have to fight back. If Dick Cheney is the kind of guy who's willing to turn his back on his daughter for politics, he can try to squirm his way out of it. Either way, the tables are turned. Because all of a sudden it's the candidate of the Religious Right who has to defend himself on Civil Unions. I even think Bush might try to avoid attacks on this issue, out of respect for Dick Cheney.
Thoughts?