From the WSJ (no free version), Al Hunt provides what may be the best summary of the Dem primary race at this junction:
For DICK GEPHARDT, the road is the clearest: win the Iowa caucuses, watch Dr. Dean win New Hampshire eight days later, and then capture the majority of the 335 delegates at play in seven states a week later. Some of these venues would be Gephardt strongholds: his home state of Missouri, with 87 delegates, and South Carolina (55 delegates) where he has the backing of the state's most influential African-American politician, Rep. James Clyburn. Then, Gephardt strategists calculate, the anti-Dean forces would grow and gravitate to his challenger over the next month culminating in Super Tuesday on March 2 with 10 states, with a combined 1,406 delegates, almost one-third of the total at stake. These include the mega-states of California, New York and Ohio.
There are two flaws with this, Dean supporters say. One, Mr. Gephardt isn't going to win Iowa, and two, even if he did, he lacks the resources for a long struggle. "We'd kill him in places like Wisconsin (Feb. 17) and California," says a leading Dean strategist.
JOHN KERRY'S advocates also see Iowa as a launching pad for a mano-a-mano race against Dr. Dean. A second-place finish in the Hawkeye State would propel the Massachusetts Democrat, they argue, to parity in New Hampshire --where he now trails Dr. Dean by 20 points -- and, more than Mr. Gephardt, he could compete financially and politically in the political landscape ahead. Dr. Dean has raised twice as much money as Mr. Kerry, and the senator has been forced to dip into his personal wealth to finance some of the campaign. A top aide pointedly notes Mr. Kerry has "left the door open" to put more personal money into the race. Legally, however, he is barred from using the separate personal resources of his exceptionally wealthy wife, Teresa.
To directly face Dr. Dean, Mr. Kerry first has to knock out both Rep. Gephardt and WESLEY CLARK, who skipped Iowa and has momentum in New Hampshire. Some Clark strategists actually wouldn't be disappointed to see Mr. Gephardt lose Iowa -- eliminating him -- and then a strong second in New Hampshire by the retired general (behind Dr. Dean) would knock out Mr. Kerry and the others. Mr. Clark would move to friendly territory in the South and Southwest. Moreover, more than any of the other Dean rivals, Mr. Clark is raising lots of money. Still, one of the Clark high command acknowledges that even under this best-case scenario "If we get competitive suddenly we turn around and face a Wisconsin where I don't know how we compete against Dean."
The Dean camp agrees and doubts that Mr. Clark or Mr. Kerry -- who they claim has virtually no standing at this stage in the South -- can mount a serious long-term offensive. As for the final two main hopefuls, JOE LIEBERMAN and JOHN EDWARDS, their calculation is as simple as it is unlikely: Messrs. Gephardt, Kerry and Clark are all winnowed out in the initial contests, and they do better than expected -- Mr. Edwards in Iowa, Mr. Lieberman in New Hampshire -- and get to take on Dr. Dean in the Sunbelt.
One leading anti-Dean Democrat isn't sure any of these scenarios are feasible but hopes one pans out: "The sooner the better."
This "anti-Dean Democrat" is actually too pessimistic. The Clark scenario is certainly feasible. I think it unlikely.
Clark is still at a huge organizational disadvantage in the numerous primary and caucus states post-February 3rd. The Clark operative quoted in the piece is worried about Wisconsin. I'd venture to say Wisconsin is just the tip of their worries, as Dean should do well on Feb. 7 (caucuses in Michigan and Washington) and Feb. 8 (Maine caucuses). February 10th is a good competitive day, with primaries in Virginia and Tennessee. TN is neck and neck, if SUSA is believed. VA will be competitive as well (M-D gave Dean 21, Lieb 13, Clark 11) .
On Feb. 14 we have two more caucuses -- DC and NV (good for Dean), then Wisconsin on the 17th (last poll: Dean 33, Lieb 12, Clark 11). Two more caucuses (ID and HI) on the 24th, along with a primary in Utah. Dean should play well in the caucuses, while Utah might offer Clark some consolation.
And then March 2nd will end it all. CA, CT, GA, MD, MA, MN, NY, OH, RI, and VT. Clark would have to survive those theoretically unfriendly states (most are northern) to get to the more favorable map on March 9th (FL, LA, MS, and TX).
It's doable, but damn. It won't be easy.
As for the others, can you see any of them navigating that map to the nomination?