"Had Enough?" versus "Feel Safer?"
Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 06:39:22 PM PDT
On every issue until this weekend, Republicans were losing on the question "Had Enough?", and the margin was growing in favor of Democrats in every poll. The North Korean nuclear test brings the question "Feel Safer?" into play. Over the four weeks that remain until election day, we will see whether it provides a counterpoint to the "Had Enough?" question or reinforces it. Presented below are several threads of reasoning on how this could play out.
The narrative on the North Korean nuclear test is hampered by a lack of theatrical video, and the MSM is reduced to Google Earth and talking heads in their coverage. To work around this, the MSM has fallen back on Cold War footage for a vague visual narrative of what a nuclear threat might feel like. That, however, reduces the immediacy of the North Korean nuclear test coverage, making it feel like historical fact rather than current crisis.
Competing video footage from Iraq will trump this cold war footage as it flows in, since Iraq visuals are contemporary and involve American casualties. Similarly, the Foley scandal will yield interviews, documentary evidence and possibly a Foley arrest as video footage this month, and that will trump North Korea due to its subject of sex. There just isn't enough material for the MSM to work with, and a renewed nuclear race across the Far East will become the basic narrative.
The administration has immediately taken the North Korean issue to the UN Security Council, effectively taking a military response off the table right away. This brings the focus back on Iraq, where ongoing military conflict will get fiercer as the month progresses. The MSM will have to plug North Korea into a broader war narrative, with Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran in a threat matrix that will look increasingly detached from 9/11 to the public.
Public perception on the North Korean nuclear test will also be contested by Democrats on substantive terms, with the claim that North Korea sought nuclear deterrence to counter threats by the Bush administration. This will be echoed by military and diplomatic experts on the MSM, bringing the "Axis of Evil" phrase back into question. However tenuous their connection with 9/11, at least Iraq and Iran are Muslim countries, but North Korea is a complete WTF.
Parts of the MSM, Fox News and Wolf Blitzer for instance, will raise the canard that Bill Clinton let North Korea off the hook during his presidency, and hope that this gains traction with the public. However, this brings the timeline over the past six years in the breakdown of negotiations between the Bush administration and North Korea under scrutiny. In particular, this past year has seen much blatant saber rattling against Kim Jong Il, and the Taepo Dong missile launch on the fourth of July becomes a relevant story for the MSM to recall.
The MSM will have to examine the immediate and long term impact of the North Korean nuclear test. In the near term, Japan's new Prime Minister will push for an amendment to Article 9 of their pacifist constitution, following which they can turn their civilian program into a military one within six months. South Korea is likely to follow Japan, and that will give China a pretext to enlarge its nuclear program to retain dominance. This will inevitably cause Russia to reactivate their program, which coupled with India and Pakistan being nuclear, turns Asia into a proliferation playground. Predictably, Iran will go into a frantic frenzy to gain nuclear deterrence against an American pre-emptive strike.
This raises the question of an attack on Iran, with the North Korean nuclear test providing the justification. However, that will really fuck things up with the Shias in Iraq, Hezbollah will renew its campaign against Israel, oil supplies will be severly disrupted, and more mayhem will follow. Iran is nowhere near as easy an option as Iraq, and it won't take much of a provocation from us, a single strafing run, for Iran to retaliate on our interests in the region. Rather than encourage the drums of war, the North Korean nuclear test will probably make the MSM adopt a tone of caution on Iran.
Even cursory MSM analysis of the fallout from the North Korean nuclear test points towards a new arms race across Asia, and the bottom line for American voters will be that nuclear proliferation has been aggravated worldwide. Polls over the coming weeks will show whether Americans blame Bush for that or rally around the President as they traditionally do in a time of crisis. My feeling is that the "Feel Safer?" question that North Korea raises will reinforce the "Had Enough?" question already being raised by Democrats, and ultimately hurt the GOP or turn out to be a neutral issue on election day.
Permalink | 22 comments