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This past weekend I posted my precise predictions for five of the fifteen senate races that were generally regarded as competitive at the start of September. I said that I was turning most of my prognosticating energy toward the Senate since that is the primary battleground this year. You can read the entire diary here.

While I not devoting as much time or energy to the governor or house races (I feel confident the democrats will have a majority of seats in both categories) I am certainly paying attention to these races.

Tonight I will post the first of two batches of governor races predictions, each batch covering eighteen races. I will not claim as much confidence in these predictions as I do in my Senate calls and will not be holding myself to as high a standard with them.

Now, without further adieu, go ahead and JUMP!

Before proceeding with tonight's predictions, I would like to express concern over the Wisconsin Governor's race, which I will not be covering tonight. While Doyle has had a narrow but steady lead there, he has not been consistently at or over 50%, and yes, I know about the recent Badger poll. I consider this now to be clearly our most vulnerable governor's seat, and until the release of the Strategic Vision poll that shows Doyle up by two, I would have given it narrowly to the repub candidate Green. Even now it's a flatout tossup. I hope in the next few days to be able to tilt the race in Doyle's favor.

Here are tonight's calls:

NH Lynch (d) 64 Coburn (r) 32

VT Douglas (r) 53 Parker(d) 45

MA Patrick (d) 53 Healey (r) 38 Others 9

RI Carcieri (r) 54 Fogerty (d) 45

CT Rell(r) 58 DeStefano (d) 40

NY Spitzer (d) 68 Faso (r) 29

PA Rendell (d) 59 Swan (r) 40

OH Strickland (d) 58 Blackwell (r) 41

TN Bredesen (d) 62 Bryson (r) 37

OK Henry (d) 60 Istook (r) 40

NM Richardson (d) 59 Dendahl (r) 38

AZ  Napolitino (d) 57 Munsil (r) 41

CO Ritter (d) 53 Beauperez (r) 45

MI Granholm (d) 52 Devos (r) 47

KS Sebelius (d) 56 Barnett (r) 44

NE Heineman (r) 73 Hahn (d) 24

IL Blagojevich (d) 47 Topinka (r) 40 Others 13

HI Lingle (r) 57 Iwase (d) 34 Others 9 (Not much information on this one)

I'll probably do the second batch of governor and senator predictions this weekend, then the final five senate races on Monday. I will tip you off that I think we will take the Senate, but I'm hoping by Monday I'll see clear to predicting either a Lieberman-free or Lieberman-proof majority.

Originally posted to Davidsfr on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 09:30 PM PST.

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