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I have researched voter turnout for the past couple of midterm elections and there is no reasonable way to predict what voter turnout in Connecticut will be next Tuesday. In some states in the northeast mid terms see about a 40% turnout. While in the midwest states such as Iowa and Minnesota have seen turnout as high or above 55% in recent election cycles. Your guess might as well be as good as mine. Here I go making my prediction. Agree or not agree, this is what I think will happen. (As a side note the internal polls have this race under 4-5 points. So I believe some of these numbers I predict are fairly accurate.)

Factors for a Lamont Upset

A.)Iraq War

B.)Anti-Lieberman-Bush Sentiment

C.)Anti gop stay at home vibe

D.)44% Democratic turnout in August will only build higher for the general election among this faction of voters.

E.)Over 86,000 new registered voters in Connecticut since last May. 40% are Democrats and 47% are unaffiliated voters.

F.)Alan Schlesinger's ballot position compared to Connecticut For Lieberman's phony 7th or 8th line mockery.

G.)Superb gotv (micro-targeting) organization of  the Lamontcampaign in cordination with the Connecticut Democratic offices.  

Rough estimates  of active voters + newly registered voters since May 06th.

Democrats   (688,000)
Republicans (420,000)
Unaffiliated(908,000)

My prediction

Democrats 65% Turnout Rate (447,200)

Lamont     (63)281,736
Lieberman  (34)152,048
Schlesinger (3)13,416

Republicans 48% Turnout Rate (201,600)

Lamont      (13) 26,200
Lieberman   (60) 120,960
Schlesinger (27) 54,432

Unaffilated's 35% Turnout Rate (317,863)

Lamont      (40) 127,145
Lieberman   (47) 149,396
Schlesinger (13) 41,322

Lamont      435,081 (45%)
Lieberman   422,404 (43.7%)
Schlesinger 109,170 (11.3%)

Lamont wins by 1.3%

Originally posted to Djneedle83 on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 12:34 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  What I want to see (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wader, oxon

    is a measure of the cognitive dissonance in CT - the percentage of people who are motivated to go to the polls to vote bush out of office but think lieberman is acceptable.

  •  Very, very difficult to tell (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delirium, txlosthorn, oxon

    This race is hard to predict because Lieberman is not a typical third party candidate. He has the highest name recognition. He's running as an incumbant.He has the most money and his main support is NOT coming from independants. He's also considered the favorate. There has never been a third party candidate like that, i think...ever.

    Basically, the question is will anti-war Democrats be more excited to vote? Will voters who are Democrats but still dont know who Lamont is vote for him because of the (D)? Ditto with Schlesinger? Are Republicans more exicted to vote for Lieberman because he has a chance, or less likely to show up because Lieberman doesn't really represent them? Does the wave help Lamont enough to really make a difference?

    Nobody can tell and even after the election it will be hard to say what happened exactly. ESPECIALLY if Lamont wins.

    Real beauty is seldom appreciated by popular culture

    by Mikesco on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 12:40:23 AM PST

  •  Why do you have R voters... (0+ / 0-)

    ...going for Schlesinger in such large numbers?  No poll I know of has him polling that high among R voters.  The highest I have seen is 9%.

    "When the intellectual history of this era is finally written, it will scarcely be believable." -- Noam Chomsky

    by scorponic on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 12:52:52 AM PST

  •  whatever the case with these estimates (0+ / 0-)

    it's the one we'll all be watching, and it will probably be a cliff-hanger...

    we're shocked by a naked nipple, but not by naked aggression

    by Lepanto on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 01:10:10 AM PST

  •  CANT SLEEP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wader

    Schlesinger got 23% on the American Research Group poll last week among Republicans. This week he got 14% on Rammussen and 19% on the Q poll. Due to his favorable ballot position this week get into double digits.

  •  In Johnson county, IA (IA-02), early voting has (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oxon

    caught up with 2004 and looks to exceed it - unheard of for a midterm with no local issues. The Democratic early ballots are running four and five times ahead of the Republican ones. I certainly think we have a good chance to send Dave Loebsack to the House.

    I would be very interested to hear other local stories about early returns, if your auditor makes those numbers available.

    Mike Whalen- we can do better for Iowa!

    by Wee Mama on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 04:21:37 AM PST

  •  I agree with you. This is winnable. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    YetiMonk
    Lamont's closing ads are about Iraq and Iraq.

    I suspect that with the Republicans jumping ship across the country, and their leadership turning the guns on each other, a 48% Republican turn-out, especially for somebody else's guy, might be very high.  

    Now if CT Dems don't get toooooo demoralized, that should be enough to tell the difference right there.

    Is the victim moral? -- Nietzsche.

    by oxon on Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 04:48:25 AM PST

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