I have spent many slow and lonely hours compiling a comprehensive guide to the 2006 election. Below the fold, you will find lists of every Senate, House, and Gubernatorial race being decided this year, along with sample polls where available, and predictions for how each will turn out.
It is my hope that this can be a resource to you on election day, as you try to sort through the rapid-fire polling results and figure out the big question: "did we win?"
My conclusion, after studying the national picture for many months, is that we WILL win, and win big. Want my numbers? Look below!
The information is culled from a variety of places on the internet, including wikipedia, dailykos, Rothenberg political report, pollster, electoral-vote, and CQ, just to name a few. Wherever possible I included sample polls- they are just to give you a general idea of how neutral, non-partisan polling pegs the senate races as of November 1st, with the numbers in parentheses showing the same polls as of October 7th, 2006. Gubernatorial races utilize polls from circa October 14th. House races? November 2. Things can quickly change, but regardless this is a good snapshot of where we were statistically a few days prior to ED.
United States Senate
SUMMARY: 100 Members, split 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent
Up for grabs in '06: 17 Democratic seats, 15 Republican seats, 1 Independent seat (Jeffords is retiring)
Republican-held incumbent seats
Arizona- Jon Kyl against Jim Pederson
Republicans probably win
-sample poll 50-43 (45-36)
-This is an outside shot for the Dems to pick up, and should be written off as unwinnable just a week prior to the election, as Kyl has kept his support level and remains well outside the margin of error.
Indiana- Dick Lugar against Steve Osborn (libertarian)
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 67-32 (67-32)
-no Democrat in the race
Maine- Olympia Snowe against Jean Hay Bright
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 72-19 (61-23)
Mississippi- Trent Lott against Erik Fleming
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 66-29 (66-29)
Missouri- Jim Talent against Claire McCaskill
Democrats might win
-sample poll 47-48 (45-45)
-This race is as close to a tossup as we've seen this cycle. While neutral polling currently puts Talent ahead, his lead is negligible given the margins of error. McCaskill is helped immeasurably by the stem cell issue, which is on the ballot in Missouri and is splitting the conservative vote. An ad by Michael J. Fox caused this issue to come to the fore just weeks before the election.
Montana- Conrad Burns against Jon Tester
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 51-47 (49-42)
-This race has tightened up near the end, with the Republican nationals pouring money in to protect Conrad Burns. Tester is a moderate to conservative Democrat, and hopefully will overcome Burns' money advantage.
Nevada- John Ensign against Jack Carter
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 57-39 (58-35)
Ohio- Mike DeWine against Sherrod Brown
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 52-41 (47-42)
-Since the Republican national party pulled out of this race, Sherrod Brown has been surging, and is likely to overcome DeWine by a substantial margin.
Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum against Bob Casey
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 53-42 (48-40)
-Santorum is among the most despised senators by the left, and he is likely to end his political career with a defeat at the hands of Casey. Santorum is seen as arch-republican, very pro-bush, and unlikely to win reelection. The Republican nationals keep pouring money into this race, but it seems like a lost cause.
Rhode Island- Lincoln Chafee against Sheldon Whitehouse
Democrats might win
-sample poll 48-40 (43-42)
-Chafee is a liberal Republican, but Rhode Island hates Bush right now. The poll numbers have been in flux, but in the last week Whitehouse has been surging. Tying Chafee to Bush has been a very effective tactic and will likely cost the incumbent his seat.
Texas- Kay Hutchinson against Barbara Radnofsky
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 58-35 (53-36)
Utah- Orrin Hatch against Pete Ashdown
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 62-25 (62-25)
Virginia- George Allen against Jim Webb
Democrats might win
-sample poll 50-46 (47-48)
-This race is among the closest in the country, and just a week out the Democrat has been surging. Allen misstepped multiple times, in particular calling an Indian-American volunteer "macaca" on camera. His attacks on Webb's fictional works severely backfired, since these are the same books on the required reading list for Marines. I think we pull this one out, unseating Allen and ending his presidential aspirations.
Wyoming- Craig Thomas against Dale Groutage
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 67-26 (59-32)
Retiring Republican seats
Tennessee- Bill Frist (Harold Ford against Bob Corker)
Republicans might win
-sample poll 49-47 (46-46)
-this race is among the closest in the country. Corker has used some borderline racist advertisements against his democratic opponent, and unfortunately Tennessee still has a constituency that might be moved by such ads. With the republican turnout machine providing a good advantage in this heavily red state, it appears unlikely that Ford will win, despite the despicable nature of his opponent, Corker.
Democrat-held incumbent seats
California- Dianne Feinstein against Dick Mountjoy
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 58-36 (54-31)
Connecticut- Ned Lamont against Joe Lieberman (and Arthur Schlesinger)
Democrats definitely (win?)
-sample poll 41-48 (8) [40-50 (6)]
-Though Lamont continues to gain ground, he may run out of time to overcome Lieberman's support base, which is mostly republican at this juncture. Lieberman has pledged to caucus with the democrats, but his credibility has been shot by his staunch support of Bush's Iraq plan and his wishy-washy attitude about Democratic gains elsewhere in the country. Democrats definitely keep the seat, but Lieberman is at best purple.
Delaware- Tom Carpenter against Jan Ting
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 63-23 (63-23)
Florida- Bill Nelson against Katherine Harris
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 58-32 (56-34)
Hawaii- Daniel Akaka against Cynthia Thielen
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 73-25 (73-25)
Massachusetts- Ted Kennedy against Kenneth Chase
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 60-26 (73-13)
Michigan Debbie Stabenow against Mike Bouchard
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 52-40 (52-37)
-Once considered one of the best chances for a democratic incumbent to be picked off, this race is over a week prior to election day.
Nebraska- Ben Nelson against Pete Ricketts
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 54-34 (56-34)
New Jersey- Robert Menendez against Tom Keane
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 47-43 (43-42)
-This race is now the Republicans' best chance to pick up a democratic seat. Fortunately, Menendez has been winning over most of the undecideds, as the poll trend demonstrates. I think this seat is becoming safer in the last days before ED, a welcome change from speculation that a loss here would keep Dems out of the majority in the upper chamber.
New Mexico- Jeff Bingaman against Allen McCulloch
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 58-38 (65-19)
New York- Hillary Clinton against John Spencer
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 57-33 (63-29)
North Dakota- Kent Conrad against Dwight Grotberg
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 57-35 (57-35)
Washington- Maria Cantwell against Mike McGavick
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 51-43 (51-42)
West Virginia- Robert Byrd against John Raese
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 63-30 (63-30)
Wisconsin- Herb Kohl against Robert Lorge
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 60-27 (60-33)
Retiring Democrat seats
Minnesota- Mark Dayton (Mark Kennedy against Amy Klobuchar
Democrats probably win
sample poll 54-38 (50-42)
-Once a much closer race, and one targeted by the GOP, it now appears that Klobuchar will hold on. Kennedy's slipping support really sealed the deal in this contest, and Klobuchar has picked up enough of the undecideds to climb above the crucial 50% mark.
Maryland- Paul Sarbanes (Michael Steel against Ben Cardin)
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 52-43 (49-43)
-Steel's support has been static, but Cardin has gained some crucial undecided votes. Conventional wisdom is that he will hold on to this seat for the Democrats; I don't disagree.
Vermont- Jim Jeffords (Rich Tarrant against Bernie Sanders)
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 57-36 (61-33)
-While Jeffords is technically an independent, he caucuses with the Democrats, so when he wins reelection (a virtual certainty) it will be a win for us.
If these predictions are accurate...
Democrats win 24 seats, Republicans win 9.
New composition of the US Senate
49 Republicans, 51 Democrats
Gubernatorial Races
Current composition of the United States:
28 Republicans, 22 Democrats
This election, the stakes are 36 total seats
22 Republican seats, 14 Democratic seats
Retiring Democrats
Iowa- Tom Vilsack (Jim Nussle against Chet Culver)
Republicans might win
-sample poll 45-44
Retiring Republicans
Alaska- Frank Murkowski (Sarah Palin against Tony Knowles)
Republicans probably win
-sample poll 47-37
Arkansas- Mike Huckabee (Asa Hutchinson against Mike Beebe)
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 50-40
Colorado- Bill Owens (Bob Beauprez against Bill Ritter)
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 50-37
Florida- Jeb Bush (Charlie Crist against Jim Davis)
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 51-36
Idaho- Jim Risch (Butch Otter against Jerry Brady)
Republicans definitely win
Massachusetts- Mitt Romney (Kerry Healey against Deval Patrick)
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 49-28
Nevada- Kenny Quinn (Jim Gibbons against Dina Titus)
Republicans probably win
-sample poll 46-38
New York- George Pataki (John Fasso against Eliot Spitzer)
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 66-21
Ohio- Bob Taft (Ken Blackwell against Ted Strickland)
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 52-40
Democratic Incumbents
Arizona- Janet Napolitano against Len Munsil
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 58-24
Illinois- Rod Blagojevich against Judy Topinka
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 47-33
Kansas- Kathleen Sebelius against Jim Barnett
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 51-37
Maine- John Baldacci against Chandler Woodcock
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 42-35
Michigan- Jennifer Granholm against Dick Devos
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 46-40
New Hampshire- John Lynch against Jim Coburn
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 66-23
New Mexico- Bill Richardson against John Dendahl
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 59-29
Oklahoma- Brad Henry against Ernest Istook
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 59-33
Oregon- Ted Kulongoski against Ron Saxton
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 43-39
Pennsylvania- Ed Rendell against Lynn Swann
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 55-38
Tennessee- Phil Bredesen against Jim Bryson
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 66-26
Wisconsin- Jim Doyle against Mark Green
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 48-42
Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal against Ray Hunkins
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 55-29
Republican Incumbents
Alabama- Bob Riley against Lucy Baxley
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 53-37
California- Arnold Schwartzenegger against Phil Angelides
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 48-35
Connecticut- Jodi Rell against John DeStefano
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 58-33
Georgia- Sonny Perdue against Mark Taylor
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 52-35
Hawaii- Linda Lingle against Randy Iwase
Republicans probably win
Maryland- Bob Ehrlich against Martin O'Malley
Democrats definitely win
-sample poll 53-41
Minnesota- Tim Pawlenty against Mike Hatch
Democrats probably win
-sample poll 50-46
Nebraska- Dave Heineman against David Hahn
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 70-19
Rhode Island- Donald Carcieri against Charles Fogarty
Democrats might win
-sample poll 46-47 (Carciari leading)
South Carolina- Mark Sanford against Tommy Moore
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 51-40
South Dakota- Mike Rounds against Jack Billion
Republicans probably win
-sample poll
Texas- Rick Perry against Chris Bell, Carole Strayhorn (I), and Kinky Friedman (I)
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 33-14-20-14
Vermont- Jim Douglas against Scudder Parker
Republicans definitely win
-sample poll 53-35
If these predictions are accurate...
Republicans win 15
Democrats win 21
New Composition of the United States governorships
21 Republicans
29 Democrats
US House of Representatives
435 members
Current composition: 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats (last election 232-202-1)
All at stake (duh!)
For my analysis, I'm focusing on races in which there is non-partisan polling available.
The chart should be fairly easy to understand. Incumbents are listed first, unless noted as open. Where no poll numbers or prediction are listed, that's because none is available. I generally assume that unless polling indicates otherwise, incumbents will keep their seats.
Alabama 1
Jo Bonner versus Vivian Beckerle
Alabama 2
Terry Everett versus Chuck James
Alabama 3
Mike Rogers versus Greg Pierce
Alabama 4
Robert Aderholt versus Barbara Bobo
Alabama 5
Robert Cramer unopposed
Strong Democrat
Alabama 6
Spencer Bachus unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We need to contest every race.
Alabama 7
Artur Davis unopposed
Strong Democrat
Alaska 1
Don Young versus Diane Benson
Arizona 1
Rick Renzi versus Ellen Simon
Leans Republican
-sample polling 48-46
Arizona 2
Trent Franks versus John Thrasher
Arizona 3
John Shadegg versus Herb Paine
Arizona 4
Ed Pastor versus Don Karg
Arizona 5
J.D. Hayworth versus Harry Mitchell
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-46
Arizona 6
Jeff Flake unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We need to field candidates in every district.
Arizona 7
Raul Grijalva versus Ron Drake
Arizona 8
Randy Graf versus Gabrielle Giffords
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 52-41
Arkansas 1
Marion Berry versus Mickey Stumbaugh
Arkansas 2
Vic Snyder versus Andy Mayberry
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 60-39
Arkansas 3
John Boozman versus Woodrow Anderson
Arkansas 4
Mike Ross versus Joe Ross
California 1
Mike Thompson versus John Jones
California 2
Wally Herger versus Arjinderpal Sekhon
California 3
Dan Lungren versus Bill Durston
California 4
John Doolittle versus Charles Brown
Leans Republican
-sample polling 49-46
California 5
Doris Matsui versus X. Claire Yan
California 6
Lynn Woolsey versus Todd Hooper
Strong Democrat
California 7
George Miller unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 8
Nancy Pelosi versus Mike DeNunzio
Strong Democrat
-Hooray for Speaker Pelosi!
California 9
Barbara Lee versus John denDulk
California 10
Ellen Tauscher versus Darcy Linn
California 11
Richard Pombo versus Jerry McNerney
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-46
California 12
Tom Lantos versus Michael Moloney
California 13
Fortney Stark versus George Bruno
California 14
Anna Eshoo versus T.R. Smith
California 15
Mike Honda versus Raymond Chukwu
California 16
Zoe Lofgren versus Charel Winston
California 17
Sam Farr versus Anthony DeMaio
California 18
Dennis Cardoza versus John Kanno
California 19
George Radanovich versus T.J. Cox
California 20
Jim Costa unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 21
Devin Nunes versus Steve Haze
California 22 (open r)
Kevin McCarthy versus Sharon Beery
California 23
Lois Capps versus Victor Tognazzini
California 24
Elton Gallegly versus Jill Martinez
California 25
Howard McKeon versus Robert Rodriguez
California 26
David Dreier versus Cynthia Matthews
Probable Republican
-sample polling 48-35
California 27
Brad Sherman versus Peter Hankwitz
California 28
Howard Berman versus Stanley Kesselman
California 29
Adam Schiff versus Bill Bodell
California 30
Henry Waxman versus David Jones
Strong Democrat
California 31
Xavier Becerra unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 32
Hilda Solis unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 33
Diane Watson unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 34
Lucille Roybal-Allard versus Wayne Miller
California 35
Maxine Waters unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 36
Jane Harman versus Brian Gibson
California 37
Juanita Millender-McDonald unopposed
Strong Democrat
California 38
Grace Napolitano versus Sid Street
California 39
Linda Sanchez versus James Andion
California 40
Ed Royce versus Florice Hoffman
California 41
Jerry Lewis versus Louie Contreras
California 42
Gary Miller unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest every seat!
California 43
Joe Baca versus Scott Folkens
California 44
Ken Calvert versus Louis Vandenberg
California 45
Mary Bono versus David Roth
California 46
Dana Rohrabacher versus Jim Brandt
California 47
Loretta Sanchez versus Tan Nguyen
Strong Democrat
California 48
John Campbell versus Steve Young
Strong Republican
-sample polling 57-31
California 49
Darrell Issa versus Jeeni Criscenzo
California 50
Brian Bilbray versus Francine Busby
Leans Republican
-sample polling 49-46
California 51
Bob Filner versus Blake Miles
California 52
Duncan Hunter versus John Rinaldi
California 53
Susan Davis versus John Woodrum
Colorado 1
Diana DeGette unopposed
Strong Democrat
Colorado 2
Mark Udall versus Rich Mancuso
Colorado 3
John Salazar versus Scott Tipton
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 57-38
Colorado 4
Marilyn Musgrave versus Angie Paccione
Leans Democrat
-sample poll 48-45
Colorado 5 (open r)
Doug Lamborn versus Jay Fawcett
Probable Republican
-sample poll 47-40
Colorado 6
Tom Tancredo versus Bill Winter
Colorado 7 (open r)
Rick O'Donnell versus Ed Perlmutter
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 51-46
Connecticut 1
John Larson versus Scott MacLean
Connecticut 2
Rob Simmons versus Joe Courtney
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-47
Connecticut 3
Rosa DeLauro versus Joseph Vollano
Connecticut 4
Christopher Shays versus Diane Farrell
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 51-43
Connecticut 5
Nancy Johnson versus Chris Murphy
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 46-43
Delaware 1
Michael Castle versus Dennis Spivack
Strong Republican
-sample polling 59-24
Florida 1
Jeff Miller versus Joe Roberts
Florida 2
Allen Boyd unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 3
Corrine Brown unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 4
Ander Crenshaw versus Bob Harms
Florida 5
Ginny Brown-Waite versus John Russell
Strong Republican
-sample polling 55-41
Florida 6
Cliff Stearns versus Dave Bruderly
Florida 7
John Mica versus John Chagnon
Florida 8
Ric Keller versus Charlie Stuart
Florida 9 (open r)
Gus Bilirakis versus Phyllis Busansky
Strong Republican
-sample polling 57-36
Florida 10
C.W. Young versus Samm Simpson
Florida 11 (open d)
Kathy Castor versus Eddie Adams
Florida 12
Adam Putnam unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Florida 13 (open r)
Vern Buchanan versus Christine Jennings
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 49-47
Florida 14
Connie Mack versus Robert Neeld
Florida 15
Dave Weldon versus Bob Bowman
Florida 16 (open r)
Joe Negron versus Tim Mahoney
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 50-43
-This is the race for Mark Foley's old district, and his name will still appear on the ballot. This factor alone will likely make this race a softball win for the Democrats.
Florida 17
Kendrick Meek unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 18
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen versus Dave Patlak
Florida 19
Robert Wexler unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 20
Debbie Wasserman Schultz unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 21
Lincoln Diaz-Balart versus Frank Gonzalez
Florida 22
Clay Shaw versus Ron Klein
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 50-48
Florida 23
Alcee Hastings unopposed
Strong Democrat
Florida 24
Tom Feeney versus Clint Curtis
Leans Republican
-sample polling 45-43
Florida 25
Mario Diaz-Balart versus Michael Calderin
Georgia 1
Jack Kingston versus Jim Nelson
Georgia 2
Sanford Bishop versus Brad Hughes
Georgia 3
Lynn Westmoreland versus Mike McGraw
Georgia 4 (open d)
Hank Johnson versus Catherine Davis
Georgia 5
John Lewis unopposed
Strong Democrat
Georgia 6
Tom Price versus Steve Sinton
Georgia 7
John Linder versus Allan Burns
Georgia 8
Jim Marshall versus Mac Collins
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 58-32
Georgia 9
Nathan Deal versus John Bradbury
Georgia 10
Charlie Norwood versus Terry Holley
Georgia 11
Phil Gingrey versus Patrick Pillion
Georgia 12
John Barrow versus Max Burns
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 42-39
-a rare chance for a GOP pickup against a Democratic incumbent.
Georgia 13
David Scott versus Debora Honeycutt
Hawaii 1
Neil Abercrombie versus Richard Hough
Hawaii 2 (open d)
Mazie Hirono versus Bob Hogue
Idaho 1 (open r)
Bill Sali versus Larry Grant
Leans Republican
-sample polling 39-37
-this is definitely a race to watch. Sali is not supported by a great deal of the Republican establishment, and the numbers show that many voters remain undecided in the crucial days leading up to the election. Grant may pull off an upset victory here in, as dailykos might put it, freakin' Idaho.
Idaho 2
Mike Simpson versus Jim Hansen
Illinois 1
Bobby Rush versus Jason Tabour
Illinois 2
Jesse Jackson versus Robert Belin
Illinois 3
Dan Lipinski versus Ray Wardingly
Illinois 4
Luis Gutierrez versus Ann Melichar
Illinois 5
Rahm Emanuel versus Kevin White
Strong Democrat
Illinois 6 (open r)
Peter Roskam versus Tammy Duckworth
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-47
-some polls have this race pulling away in Duckworth's favor, but the spread (up to fourteen points) appears unbelievable.
Illinois 7
Danny Davis versus Charles Hutchinson
Illinois 8
Melissa Bean versus David McSweeney
Leans Democratic
-sample polling 50-45
Illinois 9
Jan Schkowsky versus Michael Shannon
Illinois 10
Mark Kirk versus Dan Seals
Leans Democratic
-sample polling 48-46
-the lead for Seals is relatively new; he has trailed by large margins as recently as a month ago. Trend lines show this race moving solidly to our side.
Illinois 11
Jerry Weller versus John Pavich
Illinois 12
Jerry Costello unopposed
Strong Democrat
Illinois 13
Judy Biggert versus Joseph Shannon
Illinois 14
Dennis Hastert versus John Laesch
Probable Republican
-sample polling 52-42
-he may win another term, but he'll have to give up the speaker's chair
Illinois 15
Tim Johnson versus David Gill
Illinois 16
Don Manzullo versus Dick Auman
Illinois 17 (open d)
Phil Hare versus Andrea Zinga
Illinois 18
Ray LaHood versus Steve Waterworth
Illinois 19
John Shimkus versus Dan Stover
Strong Republican
-sample polling 53-36
Indiana 1
Peter Viscloskyversus Mark Leyva
Indiana 2
Chris Chocola versus Joe Donnelly
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 50-45
Indiana 3
Mark Souder versus Tom Hayhurst
Probable Republican
-sample polling 52-40
Indiana 4
Steve Buyer versus David Sanders
Indiana 5
Dan Burton versus Katherine Carr
Indiana 6
Mike Pence versus Barry Welsh
Indiana 7
Julia Carson versus Eric Dickerson
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-43
Indiana 8
John Hostettler versus Brad Ellsworth
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 53-43
Indiana 9
Mike Sodrel versus Baron Hill
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 47-46
Iowa 1 (open r)
Mike Whalen versus Bruce Braley
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 49-41
Iowa 2
Jim Leach versus David Loebsack
Leans Republican
-sample polling 50-48
Iowa 3
Leonard Boswell versus Jeff Lamberti
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 52-32
Iowa 4
Tom Latham versus Selden Spencer
Iowa 5
Steve King versus Joyce Schulte
Kansas 1
Jerry Moran versus John Doll
Kansas 2
Jim Ryun versus Nancy Boyda
Kansas 3
Dennis Moore versus Chuck Ahner
Kansas 4
Todd Tiahrt versus Garth McGinn
Strong Republican
-sample polling 63-30
Kentucky 1
Ed Whitfield versus Tom Barlow
Kentucky 2
Ron Lewis versus Mike Weaver
Kentucky 3
Anne Northup versus John Yarmuth
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 52-46
-Yarmuth has polled on top of Northup almost all season, but this is a seat we predict a win in every couple of years and have been oft-disappointed. Don't count chickens on this race until the final vote has been counted.
Kentucky 4
Geoff Davis versus Ken Lucas
Leans Republican
-sample polling 46-44
-the polls have flopped so many times it's hard to know which to trust. Zogby has Lucas ahead, and this will really come down to the ground game.
Kentucky 5
Hal Rogers versus Ken Stepp
Kentucky 6
Ben Chandler unopposed
Strong Democrat
-I grew up in this district, so it's near and dear to my heart. Glad to see Ben unopposed, but we need to recruit a solid candidate to take his place when he runs for governor next year.
Louisiana 1
Bobby Jindal versus David Gereighty
Louisiana 2
Bill Jefferson versus Joe Lavigne and Eric Bradley
Louisiana 3
Charlie Melancon versus Craig Romero
Louisiana 4
Jim McCrery versus Artis Cash and Patti Cox
Louisiana 5
Rodney Alexander versus Gloria Hearn
Louisiana 6
Richard Baker unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Louisiana 7
Charles Boustany versus Mike Stagg
Maine 1
Tom Allen versus Darlene Curley
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 62-18
Maine 2
Michael Michaud versus Laurence D'Amboise
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 62-25
Maryland 1
Wayne Gilchrest versus Jim Corwin
Maryland 2
Dutch Ruppersberger versus Jimmy Mathis
Maryland 3 (open d)
John Sarbanes versus John White
Maryland 4
Albert Wynn versus Moshe Starkman
Maryland 5
Steny Hoyer unopposed
Strong Democrat
Maryland 6
Roscoe Bartlett versus Andrew Duck
Maryland 7
Elijah Cummings unopposed
Strong Democrat
Maryland 8
Chris Van Hollen versus Jeff Stein
Massachusetts 1
John Olver unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 2
Richard Neal unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 3
Jim McGovern unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 4
Barney Frank unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 5
Marty Meehan unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 6
John Tierney versus Rick Barton
Massachusetts 7
Ed Markey unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 8
Mike Capuano unopposed
Strong Democrat
Massachusetts 9
Stephen Lynch versus Jack Robinson
Massachusetts 10
Bill Delahunt versus Jeff Beatty
Michigan 1
Bart Stupak versus Don Hooper
Michigan 2
Pete Hoekstra versus Kimon Kotos
Michigan 3
Vern Ehlers versus Jim Rinck
Michigan 4
Dave Camp versus Mike Huckleberry
Michigan 5
Dale Kildee versus Eric Klammer
Michigan 6
Fred Upton versus Kim Clark
Michigan 7 (open r)
Tim Walberg versus Sharon Renier
Michigan 8
Mike Rogers versus Jim Marcinkowski
Michigan 9
Joe Knollenberg versus Nancy Skinner
Michigan 10
Candice Miller versus Robert Denison
Michigan 11
Thad McCotter versus Tony Trupiano
Michigan 12
Sander Levin versus Randell Shafer
Michigan 13
Carol Kilpatrick unopposed
Strong Democrat
Michigan 14
John Conyers versus Chad Miles
Michigan 15
John Dingell unopposed
Strong Democrat
Minnesota 1
Gil Gutknecht versus Tim Walz
Leans Republican
-sample polling 50-47
Minnesota 2
John Kline versus Coleen Rowley
Probable Republican
-sample polling 50-42
Minnesota 3
Jim Ramstad versus Wendy Wilde
Minnesota 4
Betty McCollum versus Ogbazghi Sium
Minnesota 5 (open d)
Keith Ellison versus Alan Fine
Minnesota 6 (open r)
Michelle Bachman versus Patty Wetterling
Probable Republican
-sample polling 49-43
Minnesota 7
Collin Peterson versus Mike Barrett
Minnesota 8
Jim Oberstar versus Rod Grams
Mississippi 1
Roger Wicker versus J.K. Hurt
Mississippi 2
Bennie Thompson versus Yvonne Brown
Mississippi 3
Chip Pickering unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all races!
Mississippi 4
Gene Taylor versus Randy McDonnell
Missouri 1
William Clay versus Mark Byrne
Missouri 2
Todd Akin versus George Weber
Missouri 3
Russ Carnahan versus Dave Bertelsen
Missouri 4
Ike Skelton versus Jim Noland
Missouri 5
Emanuel Cleaver versus Jacob Turk
Missouri 6
Sam Graves versus Sara Jo Shettles
Missouri 7
Roy Blunt versus Jack Truman
Missouri 8
Jo Ann Emerson versus Veronica Hambacker
Missouri 9
Kenny Hulshof versus Duane Burghard
Montana 1
Dennis Rehberg versus Monica Lindeen
Strong Republican
-sample polling 53-33
Nebraska 1
Jeff Fortenberry versus Maxine Moul
Nebraska 2
Lee Terry versus Jim Esch
Nebraska 3 (open r)
Adrian Smith versus Scott Kleeb
Leans Democrat
-sample poll 46-40
-fueled by a great deal of support from the blog community, Kleeb seems poised to take this seat out of GOP hands.
Nevada 1
Shelley Berkley versus Kenneth Wegner
Nevada 2 (open r)
Dean Heller versus Jill Derby
Probable Republican
-sample poll 48-40
Nevada 3
Jon Porter versus Tessa Hafen
Probable Republican
-sample polling 51-44
New Hampshire 1
Jeb Bradley versus Carol Shea-Porter
Strong Republican
-sample polling 49-37
New Hampshire 2
Charlie Bass versus Paul Hodes
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 50-47
New Jersey 1
Rob Andrews unopposed
Strong Democrat
New Jersey 2
Frank LoBiondo versus Viola Thomas-Hughes
New Jersey 3
Jim Saxton versus Rich Sexton
New Jersey 4
Chris Smith versus Carol Gay
New Jersey 5
Scott Garrett versus Paul Aronsohn
New Jersey 6
Frank Pallone versus Leigh-Ann Bellew
New Jersey 7
Mike Ferguson versus Linda Stender
Leans Republican
-sample polling 46-43
New Jersey 8
Bill Pascrell versus Jose Sandoval
New Jersey 9
Steve Rothman versus Vince Micco
New Jersey 10
Don Payne unopposed
Strong Democrat
New Jersey 11
Rodney Frelinghuysen versus Tom Wyka
New Jersey 12
Rush Holt versus Joe Sinagra
New Jersey 13 (open d)
Albio Sires versus John Guarini
New Mexico 1
Heather Wilson versus Patricia Madrid
Probable Democrat
-sample poll 53-44
New Mexico 2
Steve Pearce versus Al Kissling
New Mexico 3
Tom Udall versus Ron Dolin
New York 1
Tim Bishop versus Italo Zanzi
New York 2
Steve Israel versus John Bugler
New York 3
Peter King versus Dave Mejias
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-44
New York 4
Carolyn McCarthy versus Marty Blessinger
New York 5
Gary Ackerman unopposed
Strong Democrat
New York 6
Gregory Meeks unopposed
Strong Democrat
New York 7
Joe Crowley versus Kevin Brawley
New York 8
Jerrold Nadler versus Eleanor Friedman
New York 9
Anthony Weiner unopposed
Strong Democrat
New York 10
Ed Towns versus Jonathan Anderson
New York 11 (open d)
Yvette Clark versus Steve Finger
New York 12
Nydia Velazquez versus Allan Romaguera
New York 13
Vito Fossella versus Steve Harrison
New York 14
Carolyn Maloney versus Daniel Maio
New York 15
Charlie Rangel versus Edward Daniels
New York 16
Jose Serrano versus Ali Mohamed
New York 17
Eliot Engel versus Jim Faulkner
New York 18
Nita Lowey versus Richard Hoffman
New York 19
Sue Kelly versus John Hall
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 49-47
New York 20
John Sweeney versus Kirsten Gillibrand
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 53-42
New York 21
Mike McNulty versus Warren Redlich
New York 22
Maurice Hinchey unopposed
Strong Democrat
New York 23
John McHugh versus Bob Johnson
New York 24 (open r)
Ray Meier versus Mike Arcuri
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 53-42
New York 25
James Walsh versus Dan Maffei
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 53-44
New York 26
Tom Reynolds versus Jack Davis
Leans Republican
-sample polling 50-45
-This race has flipped, and not in our favor, in the last two weeks. Reynolds is the head of the Republican re-election campaign this year, and his defeat would be a moral victory for our side.
New York 27
Brian Higgins versus Michael McHale
New York 28
Louise Slaughter versus John Donnelly
New York 29
Randy Kuhl versus Eric Massa
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 53-42
North Carolina 1
G.K. Butterfield unopposed
Strong Democrat
North Carolina 2
Bob Etheridge versus Dan Mansell
North Carolina 3
Walter Jones versus Craig Weber
North Carolina 4
David Price versus Steven Acuff
North Carolina 5
Virginia Foxx versus Roger Sharpe
North Carolina 6
Howard Coble versus Rory Blake
North Carolina 7
Mike McIntyre versus Shirley Davis
North Carolina 8
Robin Hayes versus Larry Kissell
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-44
North Carolina 9
Sue Myrick versus Bill Glass
North Carolina 10
Patrick McHenry versus Richard Carsner
North Carolina 11
Charles Taylor versus Heath Shuler
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-43
North Carolina 12
Mel Watt versus Ada Fisher
North Carolina 13
Brad Miller versus Vernon Robinson
North Dakota 1
Earl Pomeroy versus Matt Mechtel
Ohio 1
Steve Chabot versus John Cranley
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 48-46
Ohio 2
Jean Schmidt versus Victoria Wulsin
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-46
-lately this race has been trending in Wulsin's favor. A few polls even have her ahead. This will come down to the wire.
Ohio 3
Mike Turner versus Dick Chema
Ohio 4 (open r)
Jim Jordan versus Rick Siferd
Ohio 5
Paul Gillmor versus Robin Weirauch
Ohio 6 (open d)
Charlie Wilson versus Chuck Blasdel
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 64-32
Ohio 7
Dave Hobson versus William Conner
Ohio 8
John Boehner versus Mort Meier
Ohio 9
Marcy Kaptur verus Bradley Leavitt
Ohio 10
Dennis Kucinich versus Mike Dovilla
Ohio 11
Stephanie Jones versus Lindsey String
Ohio 12
Pat Tiberi versus Bob Shamansky
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-46
Ohio 13 (open d)
Betty Sutton versus Craig Foltin
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 48-30
Ohio 14
Steve LaTourette versus Lew Katz
Ohio 15
Deborah Pryce versus Mary Jo Kilroy
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 53-41
Ohio 16
Ralph Regula versus Thomas Shaw
Ohio 17
Tim Ryan versus Don Manning
Ohio 18 (open r)
Joy Padgett versus Zack Space
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 53-33
Oklahoma 1
John Sullivan versus Alan Gentges
Oklahoma 2
Dan Boren versus Patrick Miller
Oklahoma 3
Frank Lucas versus Sue Barton
Oklahoma 4
Tom Cole versus Hal Spake
Oklahoma 5 (open r)
Mary Fallin versus David Hunter
Strong Republican
-sample polling 62-33
Oregon 1
David Wu versus Derrick Kitts
Oregon 2
Greg Walden versus Carol Voisin
Oregon 3
Earl Blumenauer versus Bruce Broussard
Oregon 4
Peter DeFazio versus Jim Feldkamp
Oregon 5
Darlene Hooley versus Mike Erickson
Pennsylvania 1
Bob Brady unopposed
Strong Democrat
Pennsylvania 2
Chaka Fattah versus Michael Gessner
Pennsylvania 3
Phil English versus Steve Porter
Pennsylvania 4
Melissa Hart versus Jason Altmire
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-47
Pennsylvania 5
John Peterson versus Don Hilliard
Pennsylvania 6
Jim Gerlach versus Lois Murphy
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 49-43
Pennsylvania 7
Curt Weldon versus Joe Sestak
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 50-43
Pennsylvania 8
Mike Fitzpatrick versus Patrick Murphy
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 50-47
-this race remains quite close, and polls have it both ways at this point. I went with the RT strategies poll because, frankly, I don't trust small colleges to conduct good research.
Pennsylvania 9
Bill Shuster versus Tony Barr
Pennsylvania 10
Don Sherwood versus Chris Carney
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 47-38
Pennsylvania 11
Paul Kanjorski versus Joseph Leonardi
Pennsylvania 12
John Murtha versus Diane Irey
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 57-30
Pennsylvania 13
Allyson Schwartz versus Raj Bhakta
Pennsylvania 14
Mike Doyle unopposed
Strong Democrat
Pennsylvania 15
Charlie Dent versus Charles Dertinger
Pennsylvania 16
Joe Pitts versus Lois Herr
Pennsylvania 17
Tim Holden versus Matthew Wertz
Strong Democrat
-Wertz withdrew from the race, though his name remains on the ballot
Pennsylvania 18
Tim Murphy versus Chad Kluko
Pennsylvania 19
Todd Platts versus Phil Avillo
Rhode Island 1
Patrick Kennedy versus Jon Scott
Rhode Island 2
Jim Langevin unopposed
Strong Democrat
South Carolina 1
Henry Brown versus Randy Maata
South Carolina 2
A.G. Wilson versus Michael Ellisor
South Carolina 3
Gresham Barrett versus Lee Ballenger
South Carolina 4
Bob Inglis versus William Griffith
South Carolina 5
John Spratt versus Ralph Norman
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 61-28
South Carolina 6
Jim Clyburn versus Gary McLeod
South Dakota 1
Stephanie Herseth versus Bruce Whalen
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 60-26
Tennessee 1 (open r)
David Davis versus Rick Trent
Tennessee 2
John Duncan versus John Greene
Tennessee 3
Zach Wamp versus Brent Benedict
Tennessee 4
Lincoln Davis versus Ken Martin
Tennessee 5
Jim Cooper versus Tom Kovach
Tennessee 6
Bart Gordon versus David Davis
Tennessee 7
Marsha Blackburn versus Bill Morrison
Tennessee 8
John Tanner versus John Farmer
Tennessee 9 (open d)
Steve Cohen versus Mark White
Texas 1
Louie Gohmert versus Roger Owen
Texas 2
Ted Poe versus Gary Binderim
Texas 3
Sam Johnson versus Dan Dodd
Texas 4
Ralph Hall versus Glenn Melancon
Texas 5
Jeb Hensarling versus Charlie Thompson
Texas 6
Joe Barton versus David Harris
Texas 7
John Culberson versus Jim Henley
Texas 8
Kevin Brady versus James Wright
Texas 9
Al Green unopposed
Strong Democrat
Texas 10
Michael McCaul versus Ted Ankrum
Texas 11
Mike Conaway unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Texas 12
Kay Granger versus John Morris
Texas 13
Mac Thornberry versus Roger Waun
Texas 14
Ron Paul versus Shane Sklar
Texas 15
Ruben Hinojosa versus Paul Haring
Texas 16
Silvestre Reyes unopposed
Strong Democrat
Texas 17
Chet Edwards versus Van Taylor
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 55-38
Texas 18
Sheila Jackson Lee versus Ahmad Hassan
Texas 19
Randy Neugebauer versus Robert Ricketts
Texas 20
Charlie Gonzalez unopposed
Strong Democrat
Texas 21
Lamar Smith versus John Courage
Texas 22 (open r)
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs versus Nick Lampson
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 36-28
-this is Tom Delay's old seat, and Dems will likely pick it up because the Republican candidate's name doesn't appear on the ballot and must be written in.
Texas 23
Henry Bonilla versus Augie Beltram, Rick Bolanos, Adrian DeLeon, Lukin Gilliland, Ciro Rodriguez, and Albert Uresti
Too many Democrats, not enough chance!
Texas 24
Kenny Marchant versus Gary Page
Texas 25
Lloyd Doggett versus Grant Rostig
Texas 26
Michael Burgess versus Tim Barnwell
Texas 27
Solomon Ortiz versus Willie Vaden
Texas 28
Henry Cuellar unopposed
Strong Democrat
Texas 29
Gene Green versus Eric Story
Texas 30
Eddie Johnson versus Wilson Aurbach
Texas 31
John Carter versus Mary Beth Harrell
Texas 32
Pete Sessions versus Will Pryor
Utah 1
Rob Bishop versus Steve Olsen
Utah 2
Jim Matheson versus LaVar Christensen
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 64-23
Utah 3
Chris Cannon versus Christian Burridge
Strong Republican
-sample polling 56-24
Vermont 1 (open d)
Peter Welch versus Martha Rainville
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 51-41
-not really a Democratic open seat, as Bernie Sanders was independent, but for caucusing purposes it is one of ours.
Virginia 1
Jo Ann Davis versus Shawn O'Donnell
Virginia 2
Thelma Drake versus Phil Kellam
Leans Republican
-sample polling 46-44
Virginia 3
Bobby Scott unopposed
Strong Democrat
Virginia 4
Randy Forbes unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Virginia 5
Virgil Goode versus Al Weed
Strong Republican
-sample polling 56-40
Virginia 6
Bob Goodlatte unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Virginia 7
Eric Cantor versus Jim Nachman
Virginia 8
Jim Moran versus Tom O'Donoghue
Virginia 9
Rick Boucher versus Bill Carrico
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 66-29
Virginia 10
Frank Wolf versus Judy Feder
Leans Republican
-sample polling 47-42
Virginia 11
Tom Davis versus Andy Hurst
Washington 1
Jay Inslee versus Larry Ishmael
Washington 2
Rick Larsen versus Doug Roulstone
Strong Democrat
-sample polling 62-33
Washington 3
Brian Baird versus Michael Messmore
Washington 4
Doc Hastings versus Richard Wright
Washington 5
Cathy McMorris versus Peter Goldmark
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-46
Washington 6
Norm Dicks versus Doug Cloud
Washington 7
Jim McDermott versus Steve Beren
Washington 8
Dave Reichert versus Darcy Burner
Leans Republican
-sample polling 51-45
Washington 9
Adam Smith versus Steve Cofchin
West Virginia 1
Alan Mollohan versus Chris Wakim
Probable Democrat
-sample polling 52-42
West Virginia 2
Shelley Capito versus Mike Callaghan
West Virginia 3
Nick Rahall versus Kim Wolfe
Wisconsin 1
Paul Ryan versus Jeff Thomas
Wisconsin 2
Tammy Baldwin versus Dave Magnum
Wisconsin 3
Ron Kind versus Paul Nelson
Wisconsin 4
Gwen Moore versus Perfecto Rivera
Wisconsin 5
Jim Sensenbrenner versus Bryan Kennedy
Wisconsin 6
Tom Petri unopposed
Strong Republican
-this is a failure. We must contest all seats!
Wisconsin 7
Dave Obey versus Nick Reid
Wisconsin 8 (open r)
John Gard versus Steve Kagen
Leans Democrat
-sample polling 51-45
Wyoming 1
Barbara Cubin versus Gary Trauner
Leans Republican
-sample polling 44-37
-the low decided vote on this one gives Trauner a shot, but he will have to win over most of the undecideds in the last few days to upset Cubin. Cubin was not helped by telling the third party candidate that she would slap him, if he weren't in a wheelchair.
A good rule of thumb is that if the neutral polling interests didn't think the race was worth measuring, it's going to stay with the incumbent party by a pretty large margin.
So, if we assume that where no polling exists the incumbent wins, and that the polls are tracking pretty well the result of the closer contests, here's our outcome based upon the above:
Democrats: 239
Republicans: 196
The house will be SOLIDLY in our hands!
Thanks for perusing my election day scorecard- I hope you find this helpful guidance as those poll results start flowing in...