A bit late tonight, unfortunately (had to be Dad tonight...the better half is coming back from a business trip).
No new national polls today, curiously, but we do have new numbers in a total of 35 races today. Follow me below the fold for the numbers.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
So far, we have 35 individual contests in the books, and in these, we see some favorable trends, the greatest of which is the LACK of a trend. For over a month, we have heard confident GOP flacks, and a fair amount of the pundit class, tell us about "natural tightening" of many of these races, and the notion that the Republican base voters would "come home." This was supposed to explain a GOP surge at the end that would mitigate, if not reverse, the pending Democratic wave.
Quite simply, that has not happened. In the 35 races today, we see Democratic momentum in twelve races, Republican momentum in eight races, and neutral momentum in fifteen races. In the races with dramatic movement, we see six Democrats with rapidly improving prospects (CO-GOV, KY-03, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-SEN, RI-SEN), versus one Republican for which the same can be said (IL-GOV).
With that in mind, onto the data...
CA-26: Rep. Dreier (R) 54%, Mathews (D) 35% [GOP]
This was the closest race in California two years ago, but that was largely due to two local right-wing radio guys who made Dreier their personal target for venom because they perceived Dreier to be insufficiently rabid about illegal immigration. No radio crusade in 2006, no chance for the underfunded Mathews), according to this SurveyUSA poll.
CO-GOV: Ritter (D) 57%, Beauprez (R) 35% [Dems]
Well, I guess that Zogby interactive poll that had this race tied over the weekend might have been a little off the mark, eh? SurveyUSA returns to the state, and finds an even wider lead for Ritter heading into the final weekend.
CT-GOV: Gov. Rell (R) 58%, DeStefano (D) 36% [Neutral]
The Research 2000 poll here corroborates other recent polls here almost exactly, as we see the Democratic candidate trailing by around 20-25 points behind the extraordinarily popular Jodi Rell.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CfL) 49%, Lamont (D) 37% [Neutral]
In what most be somewhat sobering news for Lamont fans, today's Reuters/Zogby poll finds an identical result to yesterday's Quinnipiac results in this race. Schlesinger is still polling at 8%, as it appears most Connecticut GOPers are sticking with Lieberman.
FL-GOV: Crist (R) 50%, Davis (D) 44% [Dems]
In a bit of a surprise, the Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision comes in with a poll which is more favorable for the Democratic candidate than other polls. Usually, their polls have a thumb on the Republican side of the scale, so we now have to wonder if there has been some late movement to create a toss-up in a race that everyone assumed would be going to the GOP.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 59%, Harris (R) 33% [Dems]
Not a surprise here...Strategic Vision's poll of the Senate race confirms the landslide-in-progress. Republicans, should they lose the Senate, will probably bludgeon themselves for months over this state. Nelson's approval numbers have been very average all year, but he has been blessed with the perfect foil (not unlike Schwarzenegger-Angelides in CA-GOV).
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 49%, Taylor (D) 39% [Dems]
This Insider Advantage tracking poll is starting to raise a very interesting prospect...what if Sonny Perdue cannot get to 50% of the vote? If he fails to hit fifty percent, it goes to a runoff. With voter motivation seeming to favor Democrats right now, Perdue would be wise to throw the kitchen sink at Taylor late, hoping to hang on with 50-55% of the vote. A runoff becomes a real wildcard prospect for Democrats...especially if they have a good night next week.
IL-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Blagojevich (D) 44.5%, Topinka (R) 38.5% [GOP]
Honestly, I do not know what to make of this one. One of these polls (Mason Dixon--Blago 44-40) sure smells a bit fishy. Nobody has had Topinka this close in months, and this poll is also the only one that has Green candidate Rich Whitney under ten percent (they have him down at 7%). SurveyUSA is not as optimistic as earlier polls this week, but it has double the cushion (Blago 45-37-14). If this is true, Blago is not safe as of yet.
IA-GOV: Culver (D) 50%, Nussle (R) 45% [Neutral]
A new Research 2000 poll, to the relief of Democrats, is in line with a Culver internal from yesterday, which had Culver leading by seven points. More importantly, this poll puts Culver at 50%. A Nussle win at this point would be something of an upset.
IA-03: Rep. Boswell (D) 53%, Lamberti (R) 41% [Neutral]
I was awfully surprised to see the NRCC and the DCCC still putting dollars into this Des-Moines area district last week. This new poll from Research 2000 tells us that Boswell still enjoys a solid, if not overwhelming, lead over one of the NRCC's top recruits of the campaign cycle.
KY-02: (2 polls) Rep. Lewis (R) 46.5%, Weaver (D) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT--We have dueling partisan polls in this race. The Republican poll, conducted by Voter/Consumer Research, has Lewis leading by 14-points (50-36). The Democratic poll, conducted by Lauer Research, has WEAVER leading by 3-points (46-43). I think we can see now why both the national committees started to play in this race at the last. This would be an enormous upset, and raises the possibility of a true national wave.
KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 52%, Rep. Northup (R) 44% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll, simply put, is a shocker. This is the latest in a campaign cycle that Anne Northup has ever been trailing in a poll, and it is damn close to being a lead outside of the statistical margin of error. The attacks on Yarmuth are not crushing him...indeed, they may well be backfiring on Northup.
MD-GOV: (2 polls) O'Malley (D) 47%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 47% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--One of these two polls is a Republican poll, done for the Ehrlich campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. The good news--the only poll of this campaign showing an Ehrlich lead (46-45) is a partisan poll. The bad news--the nonpartisan poll here today, a Rasmussen poll, has the O'Malley lead down to a single point (49-48). Could we have yet another nail-biter in Maryland on Election Day??
MD-SEN: (3 polls) Cardin (D) 49.3%, Steele (R) 44% [GOP]
Three new polls in Maryland show a very slight movement to Michael Steele over the last three days. Polls over the weekend gave Cardin about an eight-point edge, while today's polls average out to about a five-point lead for Cardin. Will the GOP start to lose focus on this race, given the newfound surge by their incumbent governor? Further, will voters who are switching to Ehrlich really be able to stomach voting for TWO Republicans in a year like this one??!!??
MA-GOV: Patrick (D) 55%, Healey (R) 34% [Neutral]
After some wild swings in the last six weeks, this race seems to have stabilized in the 20-25 point range, which means that Deval Patrick will (barring late catastrophe) become a rarity in American government--an African American man elected to be the chief executive of an American state. That this is in Massachusetts, site of some of the most acidic racial tensions in the past half-century, makes it all the sweeter.
MI-GOV: Gov. Granholm (D) 50%, DeVos (R) 42% [Neutral]
Strategic Vision, perhaps not surprisingly, has this race incrementally closer than the recent EPIC/MRA poll in this race. They also, curiously, are the only pollster that shows the U.S. Senate race in Michigan CLOSER than the gubernatorial race. This might become true as we head into the weekend, as the rumors are now flying that the NRSC are going to throw big money at this race in the end in an effort to steal one from the Democrats.
MI-SEN: Sen. Stabenow (D) 49%, Bouchard (R) 42% [GOP]
Every other pollster in this state has Stabenow with a lead that is 2-5 points wider than the Granholm lead in the gubernatorial race. Strategic Vision has this race at seven points, which is only slightly wider than an SV poll conducted last week.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 50%, Kennedy (R) 40% [GOP]
This is the second Mason-Dixon poll of the day that caught my attention, and also raised my eyebrows. Every other recent pollster in this state has shown this race to be developing into a one-sided affair. This M-D poll gives Kennedy his best numbers in a month, and has the narrowest Klobuchar lead we have seen since the late Summer.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 46%, Sen. Talent (R) 43% [Neutral]
Like in Virginia, virtually every poll in this race since late last week has either been tied, or has shown Claire McCaskill in a narrow lead. Larry Sabato today predicted a McCaskill victory here, to my surprise. I am not quite there yet, but I am really beginning to lean in that direction.
MT-SEN: (2 polls) Tester (D) 48.5%, Sen. Burns (R) 46% [Neutral]
The NRSC has come flying back into the state, as polls show that some GOP voters have come home to Burns. The question, of course, is whether their late charge here will be a case of "too little, too late." Tester's lead tightens considerably in the Zogby poll (47-46), but it edged out slightly since the weekend in the Rasmussen poll (50-46).
NH-01: Rep. Bradley (R) 49%, Shea-Porter (D) 42% [Dems]
What makes this UNH poll particularly noteworthy is that this is pure Democratic wave at work. Shea-Porter is an attractive candidate, but she is dramatically underfunded. There is no way she is closing this gap by virtue of a carpet-bombing ad blitz--she doesn't have the cash. One mini-concern--this is the same UNH poll, I believe, that had Lynch winning the governor's race by a somewhat hard-to-fathom 53 point margin.
NH-02: Hodes (D) 45%, Rep. Bass (R) 37% [Dems]
Two of the last three polls in this race have given Paul Hodes an improbable lead over the six-term incumbent, Charlie Bass. A further detail to excite Democrats--among those who indicate that they are certain to vote, Hodes lead swells to thirteen points (50-37). In the 1st district, the candidates were tied among those people who were certain to vote. Absolutely unreal.
NV-SEN: Sen. Ensign (R) 54%, Carter (D) 37% [GOP]
This new Mason-Dixon poll corroborates other recent polling here, and actually gives John Ensign a slightly larger lead than the other contemporaneous polls here. As Chuck Todd said today, if only Carter had lived in the state a few years longer, and had gotten into the race a few months earlier.
NV-02: Heller (R) 47%, Derby (D) 39% [Neutral]
This Mason-Dixon poll lends credence to a cruel reality--this open seat in Nevada has never quite closed the way that a lot of Democrats hoped. The divisive primary between Heller and Sharron Angle gave Derby a slight opening, but conservatives apparently have decided to stay with the GOP candidate, even if he is a bit too centrist for their liking. Heller is not a done deal yet, but assuming minor candidates get their usual 3-5% here, it looks like Derby will never over 90% of the undecideds.
NV-03: Rep. Porter (R) 46%, Hafen (D) 39% [Neutral]
Unlike its rural neighbor, this suburban district appears to be closing at the last, as Hafen shaves a couple more points off of Porter's lead here. What's more--almost all of the Republicans have decided...it is Democrats, and particularly Independents, who are the undecided voters in this contest.
NJ-SEN: (4 polls) Sen. Menendez (D) 47.8%, Kean (R) 40% [Dems]
A quartet of polls here, each showing a Menendez lead. A couple of them, from Zogby (49-37) and Fairleigh Dickinson (48-38) give Menendez substantial advantages. Rasmussen (48-43) and Rutgers/Eagleton (46-42) have the race a bit closer. Interestingly, the Rutgers gap among "registered voters" was a healthy nine points.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 55%, Blackwell (R) 39% [GOP]
This new poll from Opinion Consultants/Marketing Watch shows a slight tightening of the race, but nothing nearly adequate to change the basic dynamics of the race. Perhaps some recalcitrant Republicans are coming home at the very last, to turn a historic landslide into a mere defeat. Blackwell has still not exceeded 40% in a poll in recent months.
OH-SEN: (2 polls) Brown (D) 50%, Sen. DeWine (R) 43% [GOP]
Two new polls from Zogby (49-42) and Opinion Consultants/Marketing Watch (51-44) show that the gap between challenger and incumbent has narrowed somewhat, although the incumbent is still a decided underdog. Again, this might be a bit of that "natural tightening." In a state like Ohio in 2006, however, natural tightening is not going to be nearly enough to get it done for the GOP.
OR-GOV: Gov. Kulongoski (D) 46%, Saxton (R) 39% [Neutral]
Davis and Hibbits is checking in from Oregon, and they show Ted Kulongoski with a seven-point edge. This might be close to enough for the incumbent, as the poll indicates that third-party candidates are getting 8% of the vote here.
PA SEN: Casey (D) 48%, Sen. Santorum (R) 40% [GOP]
This Zogby poll takes a few percent of what polls have been giving Casey lately. However, those extra few points aren't going to Senator Santorum, they are going to the undecided column. Santorum still seems unable to rise above a ceiling of around 42%. I am starting to believe that 42% might be just about what he finishes with on Tuesday.
RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 53%, Sen. Chafee (R) 39% [Dems]
This Zogby poll strikes me as a little optimistic, but perhaps not--given that Chafee's closer is a "I know you hate Bush, but please vote for me....pretty please?" television ad. As National Journal pointed out today, that is the political equivalent of a Hail Mary pass. And we know what happens to most of those passes.
TN-SEN: (2 polls) Corker (R) 46.5%, Ford (D) 44.5% [Neutral]
Interesting dynamics afoot in this Tennessee Senate race. The lone independent pollster today (Zogby--Corker 53-43) has this race as a done deal. An internal for Corker (no details released--was leaked to Hotline) has Corker up two. An internal for Ford (by Hamilton and Beattie--Ford 46-40) has Ford leading by a larger margin than last week. A simple question today, what the HELL is going on in the Volunteer State??!!??
VA-SEN: Webb (D) 45%, Sen. Allen (R) 44% [Dems]
If memory serves, this makes it four of the last five polls that have shown Jim Webb leading George Allen in Virginia (the lone exception being a Roanoke College survey released yesterday). Zogby has it still at a razor-thin margin, but they have Webb leading, and if the undecided rule even performs as it has in its worst year (2004--when challengers snapped up 58% of the undecided vote), Webb will score a HUGE upset.
VA-05: Rep. Goode (R) 61%, Weed (D) 35% [GOP]
SurveyUSA puts a damper on any late hopes in this outer-tier Democratic challenge. Other races are tightening at the last, Goode appears to be extending his edge. The best thing about this poll release--it allows our more creative members of the community to find a way to work "Goode" and "Weed" into some clever comments.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 53%, McGavick (R) 41% [Dems]
The day after Strategic Vision had this race at single digits, the Univ. of Washington releases a poll showing the Cantwell lead at what it has been for most of the second half of October--right around a dozen points. No late NRSC blitz here...they seem to have chalked this one off.