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So the premise here yesterday that the polls Kos had seen were turning against Ford and that he felt it was a lost cause there (other polls showing it closer notwithstanding) and that he had greater hope for Arizona.

Uh.. I'm wondering if Kos might need to switch his attention back to Tennessee using that line of thought:

SurveyUSA's new poll (released same day as Zimmerman's poll which had Kyl up by 5) shows a 13 point Kyl lead over Pederson.

SO I'm wondering if we're going to see a "I'm giving up on Arizona" post here.

On the other hand (as I and others have said), Kos's prediction game has been slightly off.. so maybe its better if he does predict AZ is now lost.. it probably will end up going the opposite way.

Originally posted to tribe34 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 07:41 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    John DE, Empower Ink

    Good luck in your elections - I hope that the desired results turns up.

    From the progressives north of the border watching with interest.

  •  SUSA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ROGNM, serrano

    This election cycle SUSA is too good to republicans. They always show better results for republicans that are not in line with other polls. The lastest example is the MD senate race. SUSA had 3 polls of it and Cardin led in none of them... I don't trust SUSA.

    •  Incidently, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pHunbalanced

      SUSA had the best track record of any polling company in the 2004 elections.

      Just because a poll doesn't show what you want doesn't mean its wrong. I want Ford to win too, but things are looking a little grim. All the same, it's not over until it's over.

      •  I thought that Rasmussen had the best state rec (0+ / 0-)

        While SUSA was closest on the Presidential race, its #s for the states were often WAY off (NJ, VA, CA, etc)

        •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

          if that is the case or not. My point is that SUSA is a polling resource that we should actually respect. Its not a partisan outfit and it has one of the best track records out there.

          Rasmussen was also very good in 2004. So was Zogby. Gallup did the close to the worst, as I remember. The very worst was "Strategic Vision", the bona fide GOP polling firm.

      •  Well, (0+ / 0-)

        the sample showed that 47% of the people surveyed were Republicans, and 32% were Democrats. Hardly an equal survey, don't you think?

        The last few polls have showed the race going from an 8-point lead, to a 6-point lead, to a 5-point lead, and then to a 13-point lead? No way. Plus, they only surveyed 400 or so people.

        Don't believe this poll for a second. This race will be very close, regardless of who wins.

  •  I Don't Buy It! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollbuster

    I'm here, and while it's clearly tight, I don't see droves of Repugs and Indies suddenly flocking to Kyl, who's uninspiring at best.  Clinton was just w/Jim in both Tempe and Tucson, and Michael J. Fox is here on Monday.  Methinks someone made a boo-boo...

  •  SUSA is another GOP leaner poll (0+ / 0-)

    SUSA is another republican leaning poll, but this time they have outdid themselves. There is no way that Arizona is a 13 point race. However if you look at the polls internals SUSA over represented Repubs by 5% while undercutting dems by 5%, as compared to their previous polls of the race. If the accurate representation is substituted, then the lead is under 5 points, and in line with other polls. Take SUSA with an enormous grain of salt, or grain of whatever else fits.....

    Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.

    by pollbuster on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 07:54:59 AM PST

  •  Shut-Up (0+ / 0-)

    13 points is a distracting if not a fabrication, a ploy to depress the vote.  Kyl is the only statewide 'star' in the Republican line-up this election, and being on the 'front lines' here in Az it is evident that it would be unlikely for their 'star' to prevail by even 5 points.

    If you don't have something positive to say, hold it until after Tuesday otherwise you're just playing into Rove's hands.

  •  13 points are just too much (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cato come back

    13 points, while very worrisome, just sticks out like an outliar. This race is tight and pollsters, in my opinion, have had a difficult time pinning down AZ. SUSA had flubbed the demographics earlier with the AS-05 race and that race is clearly all tied up with Mitchell (D) having all the momentum (and a narrow 2 point lead in the last poll!).

    Don't give up on AZ .. don't give up on TN.

    All I want for election day is AZ-05 Harry Mitchell, AZ-Sen Jim Pederson, AZ-Gov Janet Napolitano (2nd term!) and for the Dems to control the House and Senate.

    by AstroCook on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 08:48:12 AM PST

  •  Don't give up on Arizona (0+ / 0-)

    If you're in Arizona, tune into the "Truth to Power Hour" at 2:00 pm (1480 KPHX).  We're having a Kyl roast.  Yee Haw.  GOP weenies welcome to call in.

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