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There is an awesome, wacky poll below the fold. It makes me think that Jim Esch, the Democrat in the NE-02, is going to win.

If we can win here, we can win anywhere. A victory in the NE-02, just like a victory in NE-03, or CO-04 or CO-05, or OH-02, or several other districts, would be a final, or near-final, nail in the coffin of the arguments against the 50 State Strategy.

There is a palable excitement on the ground in the NE-02. Let me show you why:

I have been canvassing like crazy for this race. Over the last week, I have been at mostly Likely Voting Republican houses, figuring that if they are going to go out and vote anyway, they might as well vote for Jim. So, to get a feel for how they feel about Jim, I asked how they planned on voting in the Congressional Election. The results are stunning:

NEBRASKA (2nd CD)

DMOmaha Canvassing. 10/24-11/1. Likely REPUBLICAN voters. Sample size 452. MoE Probably Really Fucking High. (No trend lines)

     Terry (R) 49
     Esch (D) 46

I know this isn't scientific. I know that maybe these Esch voters are only Esch voters because I came to their doors. I know all of that.

I also know, depending on Dem turnout and the way the indies break, that we need somewhere between 8.5% and 12.5% of the Republican vote. So even if I am off by THIRTY POINTS, that is STILL enough for a win.

__

We are competing everywhere, because there are good, honest, progressive men and women who want to be leaders everywhere. This is not merely a democratic ideal, but an American ideal, a human ideal.

If you live in Omaha, or Lincoln, or Colorado Springs, or anywhere in CT, or Ohio, or Florida, or any other state that our esteemed national party chairman may have yelled about at one time, and you have not yet volunteered, GO VOLUNTEER!!

Take a yardsign, walk a precinct, take a call list. It is not too late!

We need to prove that this 50-State Strategy is worth implementing for more than one election cycle. Because as much as these upset victories would be stunning, if we somehow blow this opportunity, if we fail to take back the House, or only win a razor-thin majority, all the beltway types will take that as a sign that this was a nice little experiment, but one that has run its course.

We must be successful, and we have not won anything yet (except maybe for MN-Sen, and CO-Gov, those guys are kicking some serious ass).

We have the potential for this to be the greatest sweep in a long time, maybe even longer than 12 years.

Let's not let it go to waste, alright?

UPDATE: PLEASE use the comments to post ways to help other deserving, progressivde candidates!!!

UPDATE 2: Since I linked to my diary in a front-pager about Kleeb, I feel I should at least return the favor in my diary. Scott is a great candidate, and would make a wonderful congressman. I am, admittedly, just a little tired of seeing NE-03 everywhere on DKos, when I am working so hard on NE-02, and think that Jim Esch is also an excellent candidate, and would also make an excellent congressman. Anyway, check out the front-pager on Kleeb's closing ad. It's good.

Originally posted to DMOmaha on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 11:45 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Even for an unscientific poll... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    prodigal, Iowa Boy, DMOmaha

    ...that's awfully close, especially considering that Douglas County is normally something likr 59-41 Republican.  Esch could indeed pull off an upset, if that many Republican leaners are defecting.

    All your vote are belong to us.

    by Harkov311 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 11:55:03 AM PST

  •  Apathy of Dems west of Mississippi possible? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran

    I live in Washington state.  During national elecions we often hear the news of how elections are breaking on the East Coast before polls are closed in Washington.  I often think this impacts voting practices on the West Coast.  (Hawaii must be even worse). I keep worrying that what will happen is that Dems will hear the news of gains on the East Coast and think..."oh well, the House will change hands so I don't need to get out and vote for the Democrat." I sure hope this doesn't happen in Nebraska.  Sorry this is rather pessimistic of me.

    Hope is nature's veil for hiding truth's nakedness. -Alfred Nobel

    by AnneofGreatHope on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 12:14:44 PM PST

    •  Not Likely... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007, llbear, DMOmaha

      With no exit polls of House races, we won't know the sure outcome of the House for several hours, probably not until after the polls close out here in California.

      As I recall, even in the all-time asswhuppin' in 1994, we did not know the certain outcome of the House until about 9 PM PST. The reason I remember is because my dumb ass was saying stupid shit like "if we hit every toss up, and pick off a couple of upsets, we could still win the House!"

      Hopefully, the OTHER guys will be saying that on Tuesday.

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 12:25:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Clinging to hope... (0+ / 0-)

        hell I was doing that in a break down of OH returns as the night wore on in 2004.  Which areas voted?  Which areas were left?  It was awful...

        Hopefully we can simply be giddy with each new seat this year.

        "No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown (-4.75, -7.13)

        by AUBoy2007 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 12:27:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I just got back from GOTV work (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fuzzex

        and the other campaigner with me thought that it would work in our favor...Dems or Independents out West would watch the Nat'l trends and think "Whoppee!  I want to part of the change movement" and then run out and vote!  Let's hope!  For Darcy and Peter Goldmark's cases.

        Hope is nature's veil for hiding truth's nakedness. -Alfred Nobel

        by AnneofGreatHope on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:52:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  If you canvassed 452 homes, you may be right. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Prime Number, Iowa Boy, JFinNe

    That's how miracles happen - people get out and work for them. Some of those people may just be telling you what they think you want to hear, but seeing a person like you out busting their tail for the Democratic candidate is a better campaign message than a TV playing non-stop attack ads.

    •  True (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      campskunk, Prime Number

      That is so true.  We are receiving a couple of phone calls daily for Kleeb, et al, from get out the voters, and they just bubble with enthusiasm.  Sure makes me happy and I wouldn't dare disappoint them now.

      "Man's life's a vapor Full of woe. He cuts a caper, Down he goes. Down de down de down he goes.

      by JFinNe on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 12:52:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  questions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptmflbcs, oldhousepoor
    1.  How do those precincts usually vote?  Is it possible you were in precincts that are not as strongly Republican than others?
    1.  What did you tell the people you canvassed?  Did you present yourself as an Esch supporter or as a nonpartisan pollster?  If the former, you could be getting a "social desirability effect," that is, some people may not be want to come out in opposition to your position.
    •  Answers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ptmflbcs
      1. These are thouroghly Republican precincts, I'll get exact numbers for you in a little while, but I'm pretty sure Terry won all 3 of them in all four of his races so far.
      1. As an Esch Volunteer, wearing an Esch T-shirt. I am certain that many of those 46 points are soft, and some for that reason. But, as I said in the diary, even if i am off by 30, it is still enough.
  •  Help Claire in Missouri - even non residents can (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    prodigal, DMOmaha

    http://claireonline.com/

    Claire McCaskill:
    The Leadership Missouri Needs
    There are only 3 days left to

    http://www.claireonline.com/...  MO Residents

    http://www.claireonline.com/...  Non - MO Residents

  •  contrarian view (0+ / 0-)

    If the dems didn't spend so much time/money on the 50 state thing, and spent it on the Senate races instead, might they have captured the Senate.  The Senate is much more important then the House, think of advise and consent (SCOTUS).

    Some (most) see winning 30 House seats/5 Senate seats as a big win, I don't.  Better would be 15 House/ 7 Senate. I don't trust Joementum.  If we don't take back the Senate, we don't protect our country from tyranny--or from 20 years of Scalia decisions.

    •  I know that you... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ptmflbcs, JFinNe

      ...are not a big fan of the 50 State Strategy. But if we weren't fielding candidates everywhere, we could not take advantage of Foley, Ney, DeLay, etc.

      Would taking back the Senate be great? Of Course. But taking back the House is a wonderful step toward creating checks and balances.

      In bringing some sort of balance back to the Federal Gov, we have two giant baskets. I see no need to put all the eggs in one.

      And I would rather win a resounding majority in the house, than razor thin majorities in both houses.

      •  not (0+ / 0-)

        "And I would rather win a resounding majority in the house, than razor thin majorities in both houses."

        I totally disagree.  The SCOTUS is where the action will be--all those laws against the Bill of Rights/Magna Carta must be overturned.  Must, or we are a Stalinist country with gulags.

        •  There aren't going to be any vacancies... (0+ / 0-)

          ...in the next two years, I wouldn't think.

          I want to have a dominating win in one house, to have some oversight. In two years, we can take the WH, the Senate, and even more in the House.

          For now, I WANT TO ELECT PROGRESSIVES, and I want those progressives to have a large enough majority to DO SOMETHING!

  •  shout it out (0+ / 0-)

    Again - maybe you want to take your results to a nation-wide outlet, like MSNBC or somebody. Let them tell all the voters in your district that there's something really big on the line here.

  •  Last Push For Ned Lamont - Get Involved (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DMOmaha

    Last Push For Ned Lamont: Get Involved
    Submitted by early-bird on November 4, 2006 - 3:51pm.
    Get involved this final weekend!

    http://www.nedlamont.com/...

    This is it - the final weekend before election day. After your months of hard work, we're asking you to step it up one more time in the final days.

    Will you help by attending one of the many canvasses, GOTV meetings, or big events with Ned this weekend?

    Here's the list of the dozens of events happening this weekend (click the links for more information).

    We need you this one last time. Will you be there to stand up for real change in this country's direction?

    Go, Fight, Win!

    1st CD events:

    Sat. 9:30am: Canvassing in West Hartford
    Sat. 9:30am: Canvassing in East Hartford
    Sat. 10am: Canvassing in Bristol
    Sun. 11:45am: Ned will attend a rally with Sen. Dodd and Rep. Larson in Rocky Hill
    Sun. 1pm: Canvassing in 1st CD East
    Sun. 4pm: 1st CD East GOTV Planning Meeting

    2nd CD events:

    Sat. 9am: Canvassing in Vernon
    Sat 9:30am: Canvassing in Enfield
    Sat. 9:30am: Canvassing in Madison
    Sat. 10am: Canvassing in Waterford
    Sun. 10am: Haddam Democrats Election Rally
    Sun. 1pm: Canvassing in Enfield
    Sun. 4pm: 2nd CD North GOTV Planning Meeting (Willimantic)
    Sun. 5:30pm: Ned and Sen. Dodd will attend a Colchester DTC Dinner
    Sun. 7:30pm: Enfield GOTV Planning Meeting

    3rd CD events:

    Sat. 9am: Canvassing in Fair Haven
    Sat. 9am: Canvassing in West Haven
    Sat. 11am: Canvassing in Ansonia
    Sat. 2pm: Canvassing in Middletown
    Sat. 6pm: Ned and Mayor DeStefano will hold a Town Hall in Milford
    Sat. 7pm: "Stand Up for Change" Grand Finale Rally in New Haven
    Sun 10am: Ned will attend a Derby DTC Brunch & Rally
    Sun. 10:30am: Ned will attend an Ansonia DTC Brunch & Rally
    Sun. 12pm: Canvassing in Middletown
    Sun. 2pm: Canvassing in Fair Haven
    Sun. 2pm: Canvassing in West Haven
    Sun. 3pm: Ned, Sen. Dodd, and Rep. Larson will attend a fundraiser for O'Rourke's Diner in Middletown
    Sun. 4pm: Ned will attend a Middletown DTC Rally
    Sun. 7pm: Ned will attend a seniors candidate event in New Haven
    Mon. 6pm: New Haven Area GOTV Planning Meeting

    4th CD events:

    Sat. 10am: Canvassing in Stamford/Knock and Rock with Black 47!
    Sat. 1pm: Stand with Ned for Bridge Repair in Bridgeport
    Sun. 1pm: Canvassing in Bridgeport
    Sun. 1pm and 3pm: Canvassing in Norwalk
    Sun. 7pm: 4th CD GOTV Planning Meeting
    Mon. 6am: Flyer Hand-Out at Train Stations in Fairfield County

    5th CD events:

    Sat. 9am: Canvassing in Meriden
    Sat. 9am: Canvassing in Waterbury
    Sat. 10am: Canvassing in New Fairfield
    Sat. 10am: Canvassing in Newtown
    Sun. 12pm: Canvassing in Danbury
    Sun. 6pm: Naugatuck Valley and Southern 5th CD GOTV Planning Meeting
    Sun. 7pm: Bethel/ Danbury GOTV Planning Meeting
    Sun. 7pm: Plainville GOTV Planning Meeting  

  •  Republican anger here was HOT before Ted Haggard (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptmflbcs, llbear

      I have a friend who is a devout evangelical, but not in the "Nuts and Loonies" part of the spectrum we see discussed here far too often. He was going to vote for Esch before the Foley scandal and before the Ted 'Handjob" Haggard business, with his rationale being the Republican party is corrupt to the bone and the whole thing needs a good enema. He plans on returning to his Republican voting pattern in 2008 ... unless Esch does a really, really good job.

      I ... I ... I sleep with the enemy. sigh 'tis true, that woman who turns up here when I'm in town and she isn't working is a registered Republican and she is big on values stuff. When Foley broke I brought it up when she was too close to easily escape and I asked about a vote for Esch. She is quite ticklish so this would be a coerced vote, but I hope she did the right thing when she voted early as she is on vacation this week.

     These are two I know well and I've talked to many, many others. Republicans break into two camps - crazy pissed and sick to death of it all, or staying real quiet and hoping it all goes away. The former are likely to kick ass when presented with a list of names and the latter are going to stay home out of embarrasment.

     Could be there is a blue lining in here in this very red state.

    "Religious bondage shackles and debilitates the mind and unfits it for every noble enterprise" - U.S. Constitution author and fourth President James Madison

    by Iowa Boy on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 01:01:21 PM PST

  •  One comment on MoE (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptmflbcs

    You can actually calluclate the Margin of Error for your poll, since Margin of Error is only function of samle size. For 95% confidence, the margin of error is  1.29 / sqrt(n) or in your case, 4.6%.  The problem is not the margin of error, the problem is that ths sample was not random.  So, if you took a random sample of 453 republicans in the district, you're numbers would be no more than 4.6% off 95% of the time.  However, since your sample wasn't random, you really have no idea.

    This is why there is so much discrepency between polls.  How you collect your sample is far more important than the margin of error.

    •  Yeah, I know.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...but good informative post all the same. But what you said is pretty much what i meant (and probably what I should have said). I wanted the "poll" to look like it does when Kos posts them.

      Anyway, are/were you a math major as well, or do you just know stats decently?

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