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A new Mason-Dixon poll out on November 4 has democrat Jim Webb ahead of George Allen for Virginia Senate 46/45. Webb is leading by 20% in Northern Virginia (which recent media reports have suggested is experiencing unprecedented levels of absentee and early voting). Virginia voters trust Webb on everything from Iraq to Terrorism to Moral Values.

Here is the article with the poll:

Click here to see the trend:

Allen was 15% ahead of Webb before Macaca. Macaca lowered his lead to only 5%. It was then the novel story that caused Webb to take the lead over Allen. Besides being a stupid argument (that a war novel can be too graphic), the story played into the image Allen created of himself as a bully.

If I had been adivising Allen, I have made sure he did not make an issue out of the novels. Allen was ahead, but by only 1% or 2%, before he leaked the story to Drudge. When you are ahead in a race by a very narrow margin, right before election day, the last thing you can do is rock the boat. All you have to do is piss off a very small number of voters, and that can be enough to lose you the election. Allen should have just laid low.

If Webb wins, this will be the ultimate bloggosphere/netroots victory. If not for the netroots, Harris Miller would have easily beat his broke former republican challenger Jim Webb. If that had happened, Allen would be about to win a massive reelection victory, and on his way to the republican presidential nomination.

Also, if Allen loses, the Drudge Report will have to get some of the credit. An Allen loss will be partly due to the novel story that Drudge made into a news story.

Originally posted to politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:04 PM PST.


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Comment Preferences

  •  That's great! Message to Mike Stark... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...please sit at home and eat Cheetos for the next few days.

    "I am my brother's keeper. I am a Democrat." -- That's your slogan, Democrats.

    by Bensdad on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:03:45 PM PST

    •  I don't know that the stark thing had much to do (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jxg, Turkana, LithiumCola

      with this. this is the result of a series of horrible moves by Allen.

      "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

      by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:07:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have to assume that the horrible (0+ / 0-)

        moves made a damned bit of difference only because the other guy is genuinely better.

        That is, I assume that Allen has been making bonehead moves his whole life.

        "In the beginning the universe was created. This has been widely criticized and generally regarded as a bad move." -- Douglas Adams

        by LithiumCola on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:19:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  he has been (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          All of this confederate/racial/abusive crap. It wasn't enough to sink him in either of his two elections (1993 and 2000), probably because he was not an incumbent either time, and the environment was not as hostile to republicans either time.

          "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

          by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:43:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think what Bensdad is saying (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ...and correct me if I'm that Mike Stark risks becoming our Drudge/novel/boat-rocking self-inflicted wound. I tend to agree.

        •  Bingo.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          ...they own the media. Persisting on getting very close to sitting Senators in the Third Reich well yelling questions that may be unintelligible unless electronically enhanced risks lending credence to Allen that he is being "set up" at these events. "Macaca" was a completely passive event where he looked horrid. Repeatedly venturing close to assaulting a Senator would be grist for their mill.

          Look at the hay they were able to make out of Kerry's fumbled lines. It's our to lose. Be very, very careful.

          We respect you Stark, for what you did, but three times is NOT charm.

          "I am my brother's keeper. I am a Democrat." -- That's your slogan, Democrats.

          by Bensdad on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:34:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  polls don't seem to suggest this (0+ / 0-)

          Plus Mike Stark was not an agent of the Webb campaign, and Webb did not have anything to do with it.

          "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

          by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:43:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Jeeezzz (0+ / 1-)
      Recommended by:
      Hidden by:

      Dont be such an asshole

  •  That is neck and neck - not ahead. (6+ / 0-)

    If you want to inspire GOTV - neck and neck is better at this point.

  •  Woohoo!!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera, LithiumCola

    Onward with GOTV!!!  I think he's got a real shot at this.  We just need to make sure that Arlington, Fairfax, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Loudoun come though for him.  

    •  poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalLiberal, LithiumCola

      The poll shows Webb ahead in defense-rich Hampton roads. He just needs to pull even amongst the Richmond suburbs, and the heavily democratic urban core of Richmond will carry him over the top in the Richmond area.

      "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

      by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:13:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That was key for me (0+ / 0-)

        I think he's going to get the military vote and I think he's going to do fairly well for a Democrat in the southwest.  I've been to the suburbs of Richmond before.  Let me tell you, they're full of Republican wingnuts.  Although apparently, Kerry didn't do all that badly in them and Kaine won them for the most part.  Henrico, Louisa, and Goochland Counties that is.  I figure that the inner city of Richmond is heavily Democratic but not vote rich (although it certainly helped Kaine).  I'm hoping that Doug Wilder and Tim Kaine can help him.

        I did not realize until last night that there was an anti gay marriage ammendment on the ballot in Virginia.  I did not realize that Webb was opposed as well.  Well you know, the man has cajones.  What can I say?  I mean I was at the Clarendon Ballroom the other night for his rally with Wes Clark and Michael J. Fox and he basically said (I can't remember the exact quote) that he had run his campaign based on principles and not changing any of this positions for political gain.  The big positive for me is to see that Northern Virginians are so opposed to it.  If they turn out in large numbers, this thing could be defeated.  It's amazing that there are so many states this year where the anti gay marriage ammendment could be defeated-Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconin.  It's unbeleivable, really.  Even if we lose, the fact that we're competitive is incredible especially in states with conservative tilts.  And I am glad that Webb took the politically incorrect stand against it.

        Wow, this race is SO exciting.  I hope my $50 goes a long way.  I think I like Webb so much because I've always had a guilty pleasure of admiring Daryl Gates.  Webb is kind of like the Democratic and southern version of Gates.  

  •  Undecideds typically (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Break 2/1 towards the challenger. These are good numbers for Webb if the polling model is accurate.

    Don't like crooks in D.C.? Vote Against Charles Taylor (NC-11) who is one of them.

    by trifecta on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:05:21 PM PST

  •  Im in NOVA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and my Kool Aide drinking boss signed my absentee ballot.  Heh.

  •  It's all Margin of Error....don't get hyped over (0+ / 0-)

    it. It's like going wild when one horse creeps ahead of the other by half a nose, and then the other one does it. Let's get to the finish line and be half a nose ahead. Then I'll call in sick Wednesday.

  •  Um... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    it's good news, but I would hardly call that "ahead" make it sounds like he's 10 points ahead! That's a tie, and statistically insignificant considering the margin of could be 47-41 for Allen...

    What is good news is that he is polling at 45...which means undecideds will vote for Webb and we will probably win this 51-48

    "People place their hand on the Bible and swear to uphold the Constitution. They don't put their hand on the Constitution and swear to uphold the Bible." --J.R.

    by michael1104 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:09:59 PM PST

  •  several important things to note about M-D (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jxg, oortdust, Turkana
    1. when they last polled, they had Allen up by 4
    1. they include the 34rd party candidate (at 2%), which 7% undecided.
    1. the internals are fascinating - Webb leads Allen on everything that matters except immigration.  Far more have a negative impression of Allen, far more blame him for the negative campaign, a significant group view Webb as better on moral issues (!!!!) ..

    that says to me those undecideds would break no worse than 4-3 and more likely 5-2 for Webb.   That would make it 51-47.

    The poll shows Webb upby 20% in NoVa, where the turnout is likely to be heaviest, and doing quite well in Hampton Roads.

    And for an incumbent Senator, a former governor, to be drawing only 45% two days out from the election is a real problem for him.

    Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH!

    by teacherken on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:10:11 PM PST

    •  oh really? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Well, maybe we need to get out there that Allen is
      co-sponsoring the Skil Bill, which will decimate the professional careers of American workers and Allen's many votes against Border security.

      Allen being strong on illegal immigration from a conservative viewpoint is an absolute joke.

      Where is enforcing employment law, the known cure to stop illegal border hopping?

      Has Allen even seen a guest worker Visa he didn't like or any cheap labor device he didn't approve of?

      by BobOak on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:13:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  richmond (0+ / 0-)

      Webb is ahead in Northern Virgina and (I think) Virginia Beach in this poll. He is slightly behind in the Richmond area. Urban Richmond is heavily black, and Allen only wins 6% of blacks in this poll. This means that Allen's margin in Richmond is amongst surburban Richmond. These voters voted for Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. My guess is that statewide undecideds will break for Webb, and this will swing the Richmond area to Webb.

      "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

      by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:52:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  that's tight (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Who all is volunteering for phone banking to help GOTV?


    by BobOak on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:10:27 PM PST

  •  the best stuff (3+ / 0-)

    Webb is seen as doing a better job than Allen on Iraq and national security, 47 percent to 40 percent. Allen has sided with Bush on Iraq, but recently hinted at the need for a new strategy.

    On health care, Webb tops Allen, 44 percent to 33 percent.

    The Democrat barely beats Allen on the budget, taxes and economic issues, 43 percent to 41 percent.

    So, in other words, voters like Webb better than Allen for EVERYTHING. Shocker on that 40 percent approve of Allen on security. That's a big nail in Felix's coffin.

    I'm one of many who want to Draft Obama

    by zenbowl on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:11:53 PM PST

  •  Key Factors (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In the poll's internals it shows Webb ahead by 20% in the DC suburbs and 8% in Hampton Roads. If Webb has 60% in Fairfax and carries Hampton Roads, unless Allen can dominate SW VA, the Shenendoah, Southside, Hanover, Henrico, and Chesterfield counties, Webb will win. For DC related travel advice, please visit that link.

    by jiacinto on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:13:32 PM PST

  •  1 point after all that's happened? (0+ / 0-)

    That's not enough.  This election and the one in MD, where at least one poll has it very close, will be stolen.  Yes, I am averring that they will be stolen.  It was so close in the final days, who is going to complain?  The reason I pick those two is because I know the people in both those states are smarter than that.  I think the same for MT but am not so sure.  MO is where I am at a complete loss.  TN voters are responding to their worst nature thanks to the awakening brought about by the racist commercials of the GOP.

    I hope I'm wrong as I would love to see both houses fall but the theft seems in the cards now.

    •  Not another stupid Diebold post (0+ / 0-)

      Again the same old people come out with the old voting machince conspiracies. These people come out to blame any and all Democratic losses on Diebold. They claim that every Democratic loss is "stolen".

      You aren't helping the cause of election reform. In fact you are making it easier for Diebold and other companies to dismiss any criticism of their voting machines as the ratnings of nutty conspiracy theories. For DC related travel advice, please visit that link.

      by jiacinto on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:20:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, another stupid Diebold post (0+ / 0-)

        As the old saying goes: Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

        I have hammered this theme many times on this blog that anytime an election is that close, it is then easier to swipe because people won't raise a fuss.  Do you think it hasn't happened?  Do you think that given the GOP ties of Diebold's leadership, the noted discrepancies in the security of the machines, and the fact that the WH really can't afford a Dem Congress after all the crap this administration has put this nation through for these past few years doesn't make the prospect of a theft, if available, more likely?

        I know the Senate was always going to be close with the likely possiblity of it remaining in GOP hands.  I know that Cardin is far ahead in all polls but one (SUSA).  However, the idea that anything is close means less suspicion is raised if it happens to fall one way instead of another.  Is this unwarranted paranoia?  I certainly hope so but given what we have seen in the past few years, I am not dropping my guard.

        •  And if Webb shows a win (0+ / 0-)

          by 1%, who do you think is going to be whining live on Fox News that the election was stolen by the machines, espiecially if it makes the difference for control?

          (-7.25, -5.85) "Talk amongst yourselves. The Christian Right: neither Christian nor right. Discuss." --Linda Richman

          by Slartibartfast on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 07:35:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  No -- not Maryland or Virginia! (0+ / 0-)
      For starters the largest counties in VA are run by Democrats. Ditto for Maryland. No way no how are they going to get stolen.  Machine malfunctions? Sure especially in Maryland given how the primaries went but you're all wet with a claim that VA an MD can be stolen.
    •  how can you complain about VA? (0+ / 0-)

      Allen had a 15% lead 4 months ago, and no one thought there was any chance he would lose.

      "The delusional is no longer marginal"-Kevin Philips, "American Theocracy"

      by politicaljunkie2008 on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:58:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    As others have said, this is like Kaine versus Kilgore. Kaine was down until the last few days and he won with 52% of the vote. If he's up by this much in Northern Virginia, he can win. Webb has all the momentum right now. Also, the marriage amendment is down to 49% in favor with 42% opposed.

  •  More great news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Amendment #1 is ahead by only 49%-45%. I am stunned by this. Could VA really be the first state to reject one of these?

  •  Steve Jarding & Mudcat Sanders (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Whatever happens, whoever the 2008 nominee is for the Presidency really needs to hire Steve Jarding & Mudcat Sanders to run their race.

    Those 2 guys have helped both Mark Warner & Tim Kaine, and are on the precipice of helping Jim Webb win in a pretty red state.

    •  I thought of those two today (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      upon hearing a really great made for SW Va Webb spot on the radio. Banjer music playing, and good ole boy voice running down Webb's strong support for acountability, raising min. wage, yada yada..something about "as independent as a hog.....somewhere, doing something?..." lol. Radio static.
      Guv Kaine, Mark Warner, Boucher, Creigh Deeds and Webb all in my little municipal building today.
      Webb joked that everywhere he goes south of Roanoke, a cousin shows up. Hell, enough cousins could swing the vote down here. Honestly, I mean, not the way the Kilgores tried it.

      George Allen is an ignorant racist pig who is in the pocket of Big Bidness.

      by emmasnacker on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 08:27:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

    When you are ahead in a race by a very narrow margin, right before election day, the last thing you can do is rock the boat. All you have to do is piss off a very small number of voters, and that can be enough to lose you the election. Allen Kerry should have just laid low.


    Reconciliation is difficult in a country that has been tortured and divided by a tyrant. - "El Presidente" George W. Bush

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:44:24 PM PST

  •  Best thing about a Webb victory (0+ / 0-)

    "Also, if Allen loses, the Drudge Report will have to get some of the credit. An Allen loss will be partly due to the novel story that Drudge made into a news story."

    If it is proven that there has been a backlash against those attacks on Webb's books, then kudos are due to the Virginia electorate.  It would be nice to see so many people in a southern state finally realize that GOP appeals to their "values" are often rooted in an assumption that they are, as a whole, a bunch of semi-literate dunderheads.

  •  Remember when Drudge had (0+ / 0-)

    that field on his page where you could send him news tips? Am I the only one who typed in things like "Bite me fake journalist Repub scum."

    Barbara Lee speaks for me!

    by Crestingwave on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 09:42:16 PM PST

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