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Allen was 15% ahead of Webb before Macaca. Macaca lowered his lead to only 5%. It was then the novel story that caused Webb to take the lead over Allen. Besides being a stupid argument (that a war novel can be too graphic), the story played into the image Allen created of himself as a bully.
If I had been adivising Allen, I have made sure he did not make an issue out of the novels. Allen was ahead, but by only 1% or 2%, before he leaked the story to Drudge. When you are ahead in a race by a very narrow margin, right before election day, the last thing you can do is rock the boat. All you have to do is piss off a very small number of voters, and that can be enough to lose you the election. Allen should have just laid low.
If Webb wins, this will be the ultimate bloggosphere/netroots victory. If not for the netroots, Harris Miller would have easily beat his broke former republican challenger Jim Webb. If that had happened, Allen would be about to win a massive reelection victory, and on his way to the republican presidential nomination.
Also, if Allen loses, the Drudge Report will have to get some of the credit. An Allen loss will be partly due to the novel story that Drudge made into a news story.