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WHAT THEY'VE TOLD US... so far
A great war leaves the country with three armies - an army of cripples, an army of mourners, and an army of thieves.
-- German Proverb
We have been told repeatedly by this fear-mongering and manipulative administration that we're in the midst of a 'war.' It characterizes it as the defining struggle of our times. A great fight to the death in which the forces of light are being threatened by the forces of darkness. We're told that our country (and civilization) is under attack not for our hegemonic policies but for our way of life. Terrorists, they tell us, despise freedom and liberty as if we're the only ones who have exclusive rights for and a monoply on these universal concepts. Others are asked to align themselves either with us or against us. For if they do not, they too will experience our wrath.
Follow me below the fold...
Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson paid the ultimate political price for their dishonest conduct in another infamous war. One refused to run for re-election; the other resigned in disgrace. Will George W. Bush's political legacy be forever linked to those two men?
I am aware that therewisnospoon wrote this diary a couple of weeks ago admonishing us not to accept this definition of 'war' but to call it what it has morphed into: an occupation. I don't necessarily disagree but at one point in early 2003, there was a war in which the so-called coalition of the bribed, the coerced, the bought, and the extorted defeated the Iraqi Army in a few weeks and occupied that country. Call it a war, call it an occupation. By either name and regardless of the election outcome next week, I believe we are at a significant turning point. Comprehensive strategy, phased redeployment, course correction, progress benchmarks, flexible timetables, attainable goals, realistic deadlines... pay no attention to the Orwellian language. By any name, it's probably the beginning of the end in Iraq. Among our political leaders, will a George Aiken emerge and suggest that the "best policy is to declare victory and go home?"
A few questions to ponder once the war is over or almost over.
Historically, how has the American electorate responded at the polls?
How does the party holding political power fare in elections?
Are there any patterns that might help us forecast the electoral results on November 7th and possibly even for 2008?
I thought I'd take a look at what happens in American presidential and congressional elections towards the end of and following a war. I've analyzed nine elections (including one presidential election for each war) for six major wars -- World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and the Iraq War -- with a few concluding thoughts at the end and attached a poll seeking your predictions for the November 7, 2006 Elections.
I did not consider elections towards the end of or after 19th century wars -- War of 1812, 1846-48 Mexican-American War, 1861-65 Civil War, and 1898 Spanish-American War -- for several reasons: a substantial majority of the population, notably women and African-Americans, did not have voting privileges; direct elections to the US Senate did not take place until 1914 after the 17th Amendment to the US Constitution took effect; and methods of mass communications (radio and television) were unavailable at the time.
Political history -- the only true guide to predicting the future -- suggests that success in wars and resolution of national security crises often has a negative effect on the party in power in the national election following; rarely, if ever, do they impact positively.
There are a few exceptions where military success helped the political party in power. A major example was General William Tecumseh Sherman's 1864 March on Atlanta during the Civil War. Absent Sherman's successes, most historians agree that General George McClellan (General Ulysses S. Grant's predecessor and the 1864 Democratic presidential nominee) would have defeated incumbent Abraham Lincoln in the 1864 Election. A couple of other exceptions: John F. Kennedy successfully resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis by late October 1962 to strengthen Democratic Congressional majorities in 1962 and George W. Bush similarly using the War on Terror to the Republican Party's political advantage in 2002 and 2004. There are, however, plenty of examples when wars in the 20th century resulted in political ruin for the ruling party.
A look below at elections towards the end of and following six major wars...
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* WORLD WAR I - 1914-1918
In Flanders fields the poppies grow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place, and in the sky,
The larks, still bravely singing, fly,
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
-- John McCrae
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Democrat Woodrow Wilson ran on the promise that he'd keep the country out of war. He barely won re-election in 1916 defeating Republican challenger Charles Evan Hughes 49%-46% and 277-254 EV in the Electoral College (EC) -- the closest such election in the EC prior to the contentious 2000 Gore-Bush Election. A few months after the election, the United States formally joined the war effort in 1917 on the Allied side. Less than two years later and a week before World War I ended, Republicans regained both the Senate and House in the 1918 Congressional Elections, the second midterm election under Wilson. His cherished League of Nations proposal was doomed.
Of the 4.7 million Americans in the military, there were 320,518 casualties including Battle deaths - 53,402; Other deaths in service (nontheater) - 63,114; and Nonmortal woundings - 204,002.
As an aside, Great Britain changed prime ministers during the war in 1916 - from the wartime coalition government of Prime Minister Lord Herbert Asquith to the Liberal Party's David Lloyd George, the last time the party had a prime minister.
* 1918 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Republicans -- 49 seats -- gained 7 seats.
Democrats - 47 seats - lost 7 seats.
Total Seats - 96 seats (Hawaii and Alaska weren't states as yet).
US House of Representatives:
Republicans -- 240 seats - gained 25 seats.
Democrats -- 192 seats - lost 22 seats.
Other Parties/ Independents - 2 seats, lost 4 seats.
Vacant - 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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After Wilson's two terms, Republican Warren G. Harding -- the only sitting Senator besides John F. Kennedy ever to be elected President -- campaigned on a "return to normalcy" platform in 1920 and cruised to victory over James Cox (FDR was Cox's running mate) 60%-34% and 404-127 EV in the Electoral College. Cox had defended the League of Nations idea - to no avail. Harding's election ushered in an era of global political isolationism for the United States. Most importantly, in August 1920, the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution gave women the right to vote. Though voting privileges for all peoples were not extended until the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
* 1920 PRESIDENTIAL/CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Republicans -- 59 seats -- gained 10 seats.
Democrats - 37 seats - lost 10 seats.
Total Seats - 96 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Republicans -- 302 seats - gained 62 seats.
Democrats -- 131 seats - lost 61 seats.
Other Parties/ Independents - 2 seats.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
After the 1920 Elections, Republicans were firmly in control of the Senate and House.
Note: If I recall correctly, this was the first election in American history when a majority of registered voters lived in urban areas. How indeed, as a popular wartime song asked, was anyone "going to keep Harry on the farm once he had seen gay Paris." This trend was reversed in 1992 -- when exit polls showed that a (narrow) majority of voters lived in suburban/rural areas.
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* WORLD WAR II: 1939-1945
These Americans represent the new Roman Empire and we Britons, like the Greeks of old, must teach them how to make it go.
-- Harold Macmillan, future Tory Prime Minister, 1943
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Under pressure from isolationist elements on all sides of the political spectrum, Franklin D. Roosevelt kept the United States actively out of war for over two years. On December 7, 1941, "a date which will live in infamy," as FDR put it, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor changed that fact. In the first elections after the attack in 1942, Republicans made substantial gains, adding 10 seats in the Senate and 47 seats in the House.
Following the war, Republicans regained both the Senate and House in 1946, the first midterm election under Harry S Truman. That outcome was reversed in 1948 when the Democrats won back not only the Senate and the House but, as importantly, the Presidency. In what is regarded as the greatest political upset in modern politics, Truman defeated his Republican challenger, Thomas E. Dewey, a man with a dour personality and once described by a reporter as "the man on the wedding cake."
Of over 16 million Americans servicemen and women, casualties included Battle deaths - 291,557; Other deaths in service (nontheater) - 113,842; and Nonmortal woundings -671,846.
Significantly, Great Britain changed prime ministers twice during the war. First, in an intra-party struggle, the Tories replaced Neville Chamberlain with Winston Churchill in 1940. Then, in July 1945, Clement Attlee's Labour Party defeated Churchill's Tories only a few weeks after Nazi Germany had surrendered in May 1945. Attlee had served in a wartime coalition government under Churchill as Deputy Prime Minister, a post that has only existed occasionally in the history of the United Kingdom.
* 1946 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Republicans -- 51 seats -- gained 13 seats.
Democrats -- 45 seats -- lost 12 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 0 seats, lost 1 seat.
Total Seats -- 96 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Republicans -- 246 seats - gained 55 seats.
Democrats -- 188 seats - lost 54 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat, lost 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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Even after losing control of the Senate and the House in 1946, Harry S Truman forged ahead with an impressive set of achievements. After World War II, isolationism was passe; internationalism had become the new fashion in foreign policy. Read my diary of Wednesday, May 19, 2004 for a complete list of Truman's foreign policy and domestic achievements. In 1948, fending off challenges from two groups that left the Democratic Party (Henry Wallace's leftist Progressive Party and Strom Thurmond's conservative States' Rights Party or "Dixiecrats," as they were commonly referred to) Truman ran a vigorous whistle-stop campaign against the "do-nothing, good-for-nothing" Republican Congress and beat Dewey by 50%-45%; 303-189 in the Electoral College. The Dixiecrats received 39 electoral votes. Both Wallace and Thurmond received a bit over 2% of the popular vote.
* 1948 PRESIDENTIAL/CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Democrats -- 54 seats -- gained 9 seats.
Republicans -- 42 seats -- lost 9 seats.
Total Seats -- 96 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Democrats -- 263 seats - gained 75 seats.
Republicans -- 171 seats - lost 75 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
Was Macmillan correct in his assessment that the United States was on its way to expanding its empire? See my diary of January 8, 2004 for more thoughts on this issue.
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* KOREAN WAR - 1950-1953
The wrong war, at the wrong place, at the wrong time, and with the wrong enemy.
-- General Omar Bradley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, giving testimony before a Senate inquiry into General MacArthur's proposal to carry the Korean conflict into China
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The Cold War that had broken out between the Americans and the Soviets in 1946-47 first turned hot when North Korean forces attacked South Korea in 1950. By 1951, the war had stalemated, forcing Harry S Truman not to run for re-election the following year. At the height of the virulently anti-Communist McCarthy Era, the Republicans regained the White House, Senate, and House in November 1952 a few months before the war ended. Republican Candidate and World War II hero, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, had run on the campaign promise that he "would go to Korea" and end the war. He easily beat Democratic challenger Adlai E. Stevenson 55%-44% and 442-89 EV in the Electoral College. During the campaign, a supporter told him that he was sure to "get the vote of every thinking man" in America, to which Stevenson is said to have replied, "Thank you, but I need a majority to win." After being shut out for 20 years from 1932-1952, a Republican had returned to the White House.
In January 1953, when he left the White House, Truman's approval ratings were below 30%; now, however, he is widely considered the most successful post-WW II foreign policy president.
Over 5.7 million Americans were in the military during the war. The casualties numbered 157,582 including Battle deaths - 33,741; Other deaths in service (theater) - 2,827; Other deaths in service (nontheater) - 17,730; and Nonmortal woundings 103,284.
* 1952 PRESIDENTIAL/CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Republicans -- 48 seats -- gained 1 seat.
Democrats -- 47 seats -- lost 2 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat, gained 1 seat.
Total Seats -- 96 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Republicans -- 221 seats - gained 22 seats.
Democrats -- 213 seats - lost 22 seats.
Other Parties/ Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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The Korean War ended in 1953 and the (real or perceived) threat of Communism receded somewhat as an issue. The Republican control of the Senate and House lasted only two years as Democrats succeeded in regaining both legislative chambers in the 1954 Congressional Elections, the first midterm election under Eisenhower.
* 1954 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Democrats -- 48 seats -- gained 1 seat.
Republicans -- 47 seats -- lost 1 seat.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats -- 96 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Democrats -- 232 seats - won 19 seats.
Republicans -- 203 seats - lost 18 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 0 seat, lost 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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* VIETNAM WAR - 1964-1975
The draft is white people sending black people to fight yellow people to protect the country they stole from red people.
-- Gerome Gragni and James Rado, 1967
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When John F. Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963, there were almost 17,000 American 'Military Advisors' present in South Vietnam. After the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, as the American buildup and fighting escalated over the next few of years, so did anti-war protests in the United States. Following the January 1968 Tet Offensive and a series of tumultuous political events, public opinion started to shift against the war. Given his political loyalty to Lyndon Johnson, the war's escalation prevented Hubert Humphrey from winning in 1968. Written off politically after his 1960 presidential defeat as well as a 1962 gubernatorial loss in California, Republican Richard Nixon defeated Humphrey in a close election.
In 1968, Nixon had campaigned on the premise that he had a "secret plan" to end the war. In his re-election bid in 1972, he pursued a "Southern Strategy" to court conservative supporters of George Wallace and tagged his Democratic opponent, George McGovern, as a radical out of the cultural American mainstream and the candidate of "acid, abortion, and amnesty." Nixon won in a landslide 60%-38% and 520-17 EV in the Electoral College.
Even though the last American didn't leave South Vietnam until 1974, Congress had effectively cut off funding in 1973. In early January 1973, Nixon announced the suspension of offensive action in North Vietnam, later followed by a unilateral withdrawal of US troops from Vietnam. The Paris Peace Accords were later signed on January 27, 1973 which officially ended US involvement in the Vietnam conflict. The war had been "Vietnamized."
Throughout 1973 and 1974, Nixon was consumed by the Watergate Scandal and it ultimately resulted in his resignation in August 1974. Mistrust of Nixon was quite high well before the Watergate Scandal. Following Nixon's resignation, Democrats made significant gains in the 1974 post-Watergate Congressional Elections, the second midterm election under Nixon/Ford, in which they gained 4 seats in the Senate and 49 seats in the House.
Of the almost 8.8 million Americans in military uniform, casualties numbered 243,502 including Battle deaths - 47,410; Other deaths in service (theater) - 10,789; Other deaths in service (nontheater) - 32,000; and Nonmortal woundings - 153,303. Although enemy casualty figures vary and are difficult to estimate, Vietnam released figures on April 3, 1995 that a total of one million Vietnamese combatants and four million civilians were killed in the war. The accuracy of these figures has generally not been challenged.
* 1974 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Democrats -- 60 seats -- gained 4 seats.
Republicans -- 38 seats -- lost 1 seat.
Other Parties/Independents - 2 seats.
Total Seats -- 100 seats (Alaska and Hawaii had been added as states by the late 1950's).
US House of Representatives:
Democrats -- 291 seats - gained 49 seats.
Republicans -- 144 seats - lost 48 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 0 seats, lost 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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In the 1976 Elections, campaigning on the theme of honesty, reform, and promising never to lie to the American people, Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter narrowly beat incumbent Gerald R. Ford 50%-48% and 297-240 EV in the Electoral College in the first presidential election after the war's end. Ford had pardoned Nixon so as to heal the nation's political words. It backfired. Democrats also picked up one seat each in the Senate and the House.
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* GULF WAR - 1990-1991
There are always so many conjectures as to the issue of any event that, whatever the outcome, there will always be people to say: "I said then that it would be so," quite forgetting that among their innumerable conjectures, many were to take the very opposite effect.
-- Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Saddam Hussein's August 1990 invasion of neighboring Kuwait precipitated this crisis. The Allied Coalition under George H.W. Bush amassed over 600,000 soldiers in Saudi Arabia. Six weeks after the shooting war began in mid-January 1991, the war was over. By the year's end, the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War, to paraphrase T.S. Eliot, ended thankfully with a whimper and not a bang.
In 1992, the country's attention turned inward towards domestic priorities. Bush's 91% approval ratings melted down to 37% by election day in November 1992. With perhaps an assist from independent billionaire Ross H. Perot, Clinton won the presidency 43%-37% and 370-168 EV in the Electoral College. Perot received 19% of the popular vote but didn't win any of the states. Most of the political pundits had thought that Bush, with 91% approval ratings in the Spring of 1991, was unbeatable. They were wrong.
Partly due to the House Bank Scandal, Republicans gained 9 seats in the House. Democrats added one seat in the Senate. Two years later in 1994, Republicans ended 40 years of Democratic control in the House (gaining 52 seats) and also regained the Senate, with a gain of 9 seats.
Of the almost 2.2 American military personnel, casualties numbered 2561 including Battle deaths - 147; Other deaths in service (theater) - 382, Other deaths in service (nontheater) - 1,565; and Nonmortal woundings - 467.
* 1992 PRESIDENTIAL/CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Democrats -- 57 seats -- gained 1 seat.
Republicans -- 43 seats -- lost 1 seat.
Total Seats -- 100 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Democrats -- 258 seats - lost 9 seats.
Republicans -- 176 seats - gained 9 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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* IRAQ WAR/OCCUPATION - 2003-Present
What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans, and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty and democracy?
-- M.K. Gandhi
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Everything has changed' was the mantra amongst the political and media elites here in Washington, DC after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks -- the first such attack on the mainland United States since the War of 1812. After the brief War in Afghanistan, during the on-going, never-ending War on Terror, and the War in Iraq/current occupation, why would, the political pundits have asserted, the country would even entertain the idea of changing midstream the party in political power? in 2002, the Republicans and George W. Bush hammered home this idea of 'national security' and succeeded in regaining both the Senate and House. In 2004, in the closest relection campaign in American history and during a particularly contentious campaign, Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry 51%-48% and by 286-251 EV in the Electoral College.
American casualties include Deaths - 2829 and Non-Mortal - 44,779. Totals for Coalition Forces, Iraqi Security Personnel, and Iraqi Civilians are here.
* 2004 PRESIDENTIAL/CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
US Senate:
Republicans -- 55 seats -- gained 4 seats.
Democrats -- 44 seats -- lost 4 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats -- 100 seats.
US House of Representatives:
Republicans -- 232 seats - gained 3 seats
Democrats -- 202 seats - lost 3 seats.
Other Parties/Independents - 1 seat.
Total Seats - 435 seats.
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* WHAT AWAITS THEM ON NOVEMBER 7th... and possibly beyond
The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.
-- Joseph Stalin, comment to Winston Churchill at the Potsdam Peace Conference, 1945
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Of the six American wars I looked at, 3 were definitive victories -- World War I, World War II, and the 1991 Gulf War; 1 a defeat - Vietnam War; 1 stalemated - Korean War ; and the 6th one in Iraq is ongoing though probably headed for a stalemate, if not defeat.
Presidential Elections:
In terms of presidential elections, the political party holding the White House during the war had lost the presidency in 4 of the 6 elections towards the end of or after the war's end -- in 1920, 1952, 1976, and 1992. The major exception was Harry Truman in 1948, who had won unexpectedly in what is still considered by many historians as the greatest political upset in American history. If the current Iraq War/Occupation ends up unsatisfactorily like the Korean War (or even a defeat like the Vietnam War), it may well necessitate a political change and points to a difficult 2008 for the Republican Party. As an aside, during the 20th century, Republicans occupied the White House for 52 years and Democrats for 48 years. The only thing constant in our domestic politics seems to be... change.
Congressional Elections:
In 3 of the 6 elections -- 1918, 1946, and 1952 -- the party holding both houses of Congress during the war had lost them towards the end of or after the war. Even in 1974, with Republican Gerald Ford in the White House and after the Vietnam War had effectively ended, the opposition party (Democrats) picked up 4 seats in the Senate and 49 seats in the House. In 1992, with Republican George H.W. Bush in the White House, his party picked up 9 seats in the House though they did lose one seat in the Senate.
The 2004 Election has to be looked through the prism of the unprecedented September 11th terrorist attacks and may well be the exception to the rule, in which Republicans picked up 4 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House. An important fact: among all the wars I've looked at, this is only the 2nd time that a congressional election is about to take place in the sixth year of the sitting president's term -- historically an election in which losses are quite large to begin with. The first time it happened, you guessed it, the party in power (Democrats) lost both the Senate and House in Woodrow Wilson's 6th year in office. 1974 was the 6th year election of the split Nixon/Ford terms.
The other way to look at this 6th year election is to analyze all such elections since women got the right to vote in 1920. Looking at five 6th year elections (FDR's in 1938; Truman's in 1950; Eisenhower's in 1958; Reagan's in 1986; and Clinton's in 1998), the average loss for the party occupying the White House is 6 seats in the Senate and 32 in the House. Add to this trend an extremely unpopular president and an even more unpopular war... and it is not inconceivable that the Democrats will regain both legislative chambers on November 7th!
Finally, the list of transgressions by the Bush Administration against this country is too long and has been well-documented on this web site. And often. You can see this summary of accusations Emile Zola- style in my diary of October 25, 2006. With regards to this war/occupation, every justification conjured up by the Bush Administration and its enablers proved to be not only false but demonstrably so. The lessons of history so brilliantly captured in this Robert Fisk essay were completely ignored. After more than five years of outright lies, deceit, dishonesty, and misinformation by this administration, I think we're about to find out what the price of not telling the truth is.
I suspect it'll be quite high on November 7th. History is on our side.
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A few helpful web sites:
1. Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present
2. Political Divisions of the House of Representatives, 1789-Present
3. America's Wars: U.S. Casualties and Veterans
4. Updated Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
5. Detailed Information on US Elections here and here
6. Quotations About War here and here