Here's the link to the original post at the Oregon website Loaded Orygun, or read below for my synopsis:
For background, Oregon has a unique voting system which occurs exclusively by mail-in ballots. They were delivered two weeks ago, so it is very easy to follow turnout because it is a public record as to whether a particular individual has voted, so one can track partisan turnout (and consequently target those individuals who have yet to turn in their ballot). In fact, as of Thursday (the latest figures available), 31% of the state had turned in their ballots.
Now, I don't have access to the partisan data, but you can bet that the professionals do, and this is what they're saying:
From Loaded Orygun:
"The statewide analysis shows a total of 627,177 through the 2nd, with 277,850 of those Democrats (44.3%), 240,582 Republicans (38.4%) and 108,745 independents (17.3%). Do the math, and that's a 5.9% turnout edge across Oregon. In terms of registration, Democrats are only 39% of the total, so you can see they're outperforming their proportion. The Republicans are as well, but not to the same extent."
Furthemore, in the most hotly contested districts, where the future of the Oregon House will be determined and where most attention has been lavished, Dems are even further outperforming Republicans:
"In Jean Cowan's District 10, Democrats are 56% of registrants (relative just to Dems+GOP), but 59% of ballot returns. In Sal Peralta's 24, Dems are 45% of D/R registrants, but 49% of ballots. In Brian Clem's 21st, Dems are outperforming by 2.6%, and in Chris Edwards' 14th, they're outperforming by 4.2%."
"First District 49, where Minnis is: in her district Democrats are 56% of the Democrat + Republican total. Right now, they're 60% of returns head to head. And in the 39th, Democrats are outperforming their registration by 4.3%, the highest disparity of any race I have info for. Democrats are turning out strongly; they lead by over 5 points relative to Republican turnout for Scott, which is fairly low at 30%. Minnis' turnout is even lower, at 29% so far. And in David Edwards' 30th, folks aren't yet buying what Ev Curry is selling, where turnout is under 29% for Republicans."
I interpret this to reflect a strong motivation by Democrats to throw out Republicans, whereas in those same districs, Republican voting is relatively depressed.
Of course, more than 2 days, including Saddam's verdict, remain to affect the national races, but this is in my opinion the best evidence yet of a disproportionately strong motivation on the part of the Dems to turn out and throw the Republicans out on their asses, in contrast to a relatively depressed Republican base.
Keep up the hard work, I know that I will be doing so in District 49 listed above (canvassing in the rain), but this may give more reason to be hopeful about Tuesday night.