You've heard the Cook predictions, the Rothenberg predictions, the Karl Rove predictions, and every other set of predictions by the people who's jobs it is to be right. Now, it's time for the last installment in this series, chronicling the predictions of a few thousand amateurs with their money on the line at
Tradesports.com.
The news is generally pretty good.
First, the raw data on how people are betting, with trends going back three months. The way Tradesports works is rather like an options market. You can buy or sell a contract on a particular event's happening, e.g. "Democrat to win 2006 Senate race in Virginia." If you bought that contract and he wins, you get $100. If he loses, you get nothing. Vice versa if you sold - if you sold and he wins, you owe $100, if he loses, you keep the money. The price of a contract is determined, like on a stock market, solely by the price at which two people are willing to buy and sell. Therefore, the price of contracts rise as the market at large becomes more confident the event will happen, and falls as the market becomes less confident.
I've mostly been keeping track of the Senate races, as well as the House and Senate control indicators. Races with significant movement since the last edition are in bold. Results in the trendline from before competitive primaries were concluded are in italics.
Finally, there's a section marked "analysis" between the Senate races and control indicators. This is my wildly statistically unsound estimate of expected overall seat gains based on the composite of the gaps between all the candidates' contract prices.
State/Candidate
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8/12/06
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9/14/06
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10/2/06
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11/5/06
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Change
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|
|
|
|
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Arizona
|
|
R+87
|
R+85
|
R+82.9
|
R+79.5
|
D+2.1
|
D (Pedersen)
|
|
$7.50
|
$8
|
$8.50
|
$10.50
|
$2.00
|
R (Kyl)
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|
$94.50
|
$93
|
$91.40
|
$90
|
-$1.40
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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Connecticut
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|
I+1.1
|
I+60
|
I+52
|
I+91.8
|
I+39.8
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D (Lamont)
|
|
$49.30
|
$20
|
$28
|
$5
|
-$23.00
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R (Schlesinger)
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|
$3.40
|
$0.40
|
$0.30
|
$0.50
|
$0.20
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Field (Lieberman)
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|
$50.40
|
$80
|
$80
|
$96.80
|
$16.80
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Florida
|
|
D+93.3
|
D+93
|
D+93
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D+93.5
|
D+0.5
|
D (Nelson)
|
|
$96.60
|
$96
|
$96
|
$98.50
|
$2.50
|
R (Harris)
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|
$3.30
|
$3
|
$3
|
$5
|
$2.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Maine
|
|
R+93.3
|
R+92
|
R+93
|
R+96.6
|
R+3.6
|
D (Bright)
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|
$2.60
|
$4
|
$3
|
$1.40
|
-$1.60
|
R (Snowe)
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|
$95.90
|
$96
|
$96
|
$98
|
$2.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Maryland
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|
D+53.5
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D+60
|
D+50
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D+43
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R+7
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D (Cardin)
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|
$73.50
|
$80
|
$75
|
$72
|
-$3.00
|
R (Steele)
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|
$20
|
$20
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$25
|
$29
|
$4.00
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|
|
|
|
|
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Michigan
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|
D+74
|
D+68.90
|
D+80
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D+80.1
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D+0.1
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D (Stabenow)
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|
$85
|
$86
|
$90
|
$90.10
|
$0.10
|
R (Bouchard)
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|
$11
|
$17.10
|
$10
|
$10
|
$0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Minnesota
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|
D+66.8
|
D+69
|
D+80
|
D+85.9
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D+5.9
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D (Klobuchar)
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|
$85
|
$87
|
$90
|
$92.90
|
$2.90
|
R (Kennedy)
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|
$18.20
|
$18
|
$10
|
$7
|
-$3.00
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|
|
|
|
|
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Missouri
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|
R+9.5
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R+9.8
|
R+2
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D+7.3
|
D+9.3
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D (McCaskill)
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|
$45.50
|
$45.20
|
$48
|
$55
|
$7.00
|
R (Talent)
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|
$55
|
$55
|
$50
|
$47.70
|
-$2.30
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Montana
|
|
D+29
|
D+35
|
D+55
|
D+24
|
R+31
|
D (Tester)
|
|
$64
|
$65
|
$85
|
$63.50
|
-$21.50
|
R (Burns)
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|
$35
|
$30
|
$30
|
$39.50
|
$9.50
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Nevada
|
|
R+71.5
|
R+74
|
R+82
|
R+85
|
R+3
|
D (Carter)
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|
$15
|
$12
|
$9
|
$5
|
-$4.00
|
R (Ensign)
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|
$86.50
|
$86
|
$91
|
$90
|
-$1.00
|
|
|
|
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New Jersey
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|
D+23.6
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R+15
|
R+10
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D+82
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D+92
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D (Menendez)
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|
$61.30
|
$40
|
$45
|
$91
|
$46.00
|
R (Kean)
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|
$37.70
|
$55
|
$55
|
$9
|
-$46.00
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|
|
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New Mexico
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|
D+95.8
|
D+97
|
D+95
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D+93.5
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R+1.5
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D (Bingaman)
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|
$98
|
$98
|
$97
|
$95.50
|
-$1.50
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R (McCulloch)
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$2.20
|
$1
|
$2
|
$2
|
$0.00
|
|
|
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|
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New York
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|
D+94.6
|
D+96.7
|
D+97
|
D+99.1
|
D+2.1
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D (Clinton)
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|
$97.50
|
$98
|
$98
|
$99.60
|
$1.60
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R (Spencer)
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|
$2.90
|
$1.30
|
$1
|
$0.50
|
-$0.50
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Ohio
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|
D+26.3
|
D+28
|
D+47
|
D+89.8
|
D+42.8
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D (Brown)
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|
$61.50
|
$64
|
$80
|
$94.80
|
$14.80
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R (DeWine)
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|
$35.20
|
$36
|
$33
|
$5
|
-$28.00
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|
|
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Pennsylvania
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|
D+63.2
|
D+53.1
|
D+70
|
D+86.9
|
D+16.9
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D (Casey)
|
|
$81.70
|
$77
|
$85
|
$94.90
|
$9.90
|
R (Santorum)
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|
$18.50
|
$23.90
|
$15
|
$8
|
-$7.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Rhode Island
|
|
D+50
|
D+20
|
D+50
|
D+53.9
|
D+3.9
|
D (Whitehouse)
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|
$75
|
$60
|
$72
|
$79.90
|
$7.90
|
R (Chafee)
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$25
|
$40
|
$25
|
$26
|
$1.00
|
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|
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|
|
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Tennessee
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|
R+48.3
|
R+20
|
R+22
|
R+55
|
R+33
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D (Ford)
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|
$26.70
|
$40
|
$36
|
$20
|
-$16.00
|
R (Corker)
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|
$75
|
$60
|
$58
|
$75
|
$17.00
|
|
|
|
|
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Virginia
|
|
R+77
|
R+40
|
R+22.1
|
D+20.9
|
D+43
|
D (Webb)
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|
$10.50
|
$35
|
$38
|
$60
|
$22.00
|
R (Allen)
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|
$87.50
|
$75
|
$60.10
|
$39.10
|
-$21.00
|
|
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|
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Washington
|
|
D+70
|
D+78.5
|
D+73
|
D+84.2
|
D+11.2
|
D (Cantwell)
|
|
$85
|
$90
|
$88
|
$92.20
|
$4.20
|
R (McGavick)
|
|
$15
|
$11.50
|
$15
|
$8
|
-$7.00
|
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Analysis
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Seat Distribution
|
|
|
|
|
|
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R+200
|
|
D+353.5
|
D+363.4
|
D+476
|
D+628
|
D+150.7
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Prediction
|
|
D+2.7
|
D+2.8
|
D+3.4
|
D+4.1
|
D+.7
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Composites
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|
|
|
|
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Rs to Control House
|
|
$44.40
|
$52
|
$46.20
|
$22
|
-$24.20
|
Rs to Control Senate
|
|
$81.90
|
$84.50
|
$78.90
|
$68.20
|
-$10.70
|
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Notable in this data:
- Starting with the control indicators, the market has finally given us a strong lead in the race to control the House. The Senate, in their estimation, remains likely to stay in GOP hands, but there's been significant movement in our direction there too.
- I'd been waiting for Ned Lamont to move, but if he wins it will be a complete shock to these folks. He'd been slowly working his way up from 20 to 28 cents on the dollar, but his contract has since fallen all the way to 5.
- In happier news, the market here, after leaning for months towards Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, has changed their mind and declared an absolute impending rout for Bob Menendez. Let's hope they're right about this one.
- Jon Tester appears to have lost a great deal of his advantage over Conrad Burns, but a lot of that is due to what appears to have been an abnormality in the contract prices last month. Still, it's clear that these people view this as a competitive race, with some momentum for Burns.
- Claire McCaskill, despite only incremental movement, is the predicted winner in Missouri for the first time this cycle. This one's won't be over until the last votes are counted, no doubt about it.
- Ohio has been upgraded to noncompetitive status. Sherrod Brown's contracts are selling for 95 cents on the dollar, Mike DeWine's for a nickel.
- Harold Ford Jr's been steadily slipping in Tennessee, and the bottom appears to have fallen out. The market here's still calling him competitive, but less so than Chafee in Rhode Island.
- Speaking of marginally competitive, Michael Steele refuses to fall off the board in Maryland. In fact, he continues to creep up on Ben Cardin, though still down significantly. Hopefully nothing to worry about...
- But as one falls, another rises. Jim Webb's fortunes on this exchange have gone nowhere but up since I started keeping track. For the first time, he's new ahead of George Allen, and boy is he ahead. Thanks for the Macacas, George. Means a lot to us.
- Finally, these guys don't seem to share our enthusiasm for Jim Pedersen in Arizona. His numbers haven't budged.
Last month, we gained ground in my composite predictions due largely to consolidation of our solid races - Bob Casey, Sherrod Brown, Sheldon Whitehouse, Jon Tester, and Amy Klocuhar especially. This month, there's been a lot more movement. But with the continuing advance of most of our favorites, Webb's surge ahead more than outweighing Tester's numerical stumble, and Menendez securing New Jersey, we appear to be in better position after the reshuffle. These numbers are now predicting a four seat gain. We'll see if they mean anything.