I'm compiling the latest polls, and decided to pull this out into its own post:
Rasmussen. 11/2. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/29 results)
Allen (R) 49 (46)
Webb (D) 49 (51)
Mason-Dixon for Times-Dispatch. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/17-19 results)
Allen (R) 45 (47)
Webb (D) 46 (43)
In 2005, the Democratic ground game swamped the GOP's -- even with Rove's full attention and stewardship. I have no reason to believe that this year should be any different.
Let's go back to the open 2005 governor's race in Virginia:
Rasmussen 11/4/05. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/27 results)
Kaine (D) 49 (46)
Kilgore (R) 46 (44)
Mason-Dixon 11/2-3/05. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/18-20/05 results)
Kaine (D) 45 (42)
Kilgore (R) 44 (44)
Surprisingly comparable numbers, both heading into the election with the narrowest of 1-point leads. The final results? And remember, the GOP went to the hilt with their 72-hour program.
Kaine (D) 51.72
Kilgore (R) 45.99
That's a nearly 6-point spread, or 3-5 boost over the final polls in the race. And that was against a fully-functional ground game. In Virginia, Republicans are grumbling about the neglected state of Allen's ground game. It's virtually non-existent and the NRSC didn't expect to have a competitive race.
You see, Allen was too busy building up his Iowa and New Hampshire operations to pay much heed to his own backyard. And alas, those Iowa and NH operatives ain't doing him much good getting out the Virginia vote.
I may be overly optimistic given these numbers and trends and on-the-ground reports, but I'll project a 4-point Webb victory when I release my predictions tomorrow.