I'll explain, but first let's realize that our goal is to build a long lasting progressive infrastructure, and the most important political goal in the near future is to take the White House in 2008. Unfortunately, nearly all of the power is concentrated in the White House, and the Bush administration may well destroy more of our democratic institutions if challenged.
I've seen the new polls that only give the Dems a 4-7 point lead (Fuck you, John Kerry). The media narrative is shifting towards a Republican rally, and even though I STILL THINK DEMS WIN THE HOUSE BY A GOOD MARGIN, I'd like to explain why taking the house doesn't matter in the medium to long term.
If we consider these disparate factors-
Governorships, The Senate, The Economy, Ohio, Iraq, 2008, and Realignment- we'll see that taking the house isn't really a net gain or a net loss for the progressive movement. It will be a nice symbolic victory, but not strategically substantial.
(More on the flip, I'd love a rec).
Yes, WHEN we take the house, which we WILL, it's going to be awesome to issue subpoenas and to uncover all of the crap, but if it's STOLEN by Republicans, Democrats will share NONE of the blame for America's upcoming political/economic disaster(s).
Hypothesis: Other issues are far more important than control of the house.
1) Governorships/State Control
As we know, the Dems are poised to pick up the majority of governorships and state legislatures. Dems will are certain to control the Ohio governorship, and are likely to control the Ohio SOS for the 2008 election and the 2010 redistricting. Ohio ALONE is more important than taking the house, and it's more or less in the bag. We're also going to take/maintain control of several more states, and they're going to serve as an excellent 'laboratory' for Democratic policy.
2) The Senate
I'm assuming the senate will wind up 50/50. There's still a good chance that we can take it, but what matters is that we're going take senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and probably Rhode Island, that are likely to remain blue for a long time. I hope Tester takes MT, because he's a great guy, and I hope Webb takes VA for similar reasons. Both of them will add to our populist image, which is crucial. Gaining seats in the senate, without taking control, will set us up for MORE BIG GAINS in the 2008 election. As we know, the Northeast, and the Midwest are trending Democrat, and the Mountain region is trending away from Republicans. Combine that with the hispanic demographic shifts and we're set to take control of the senate for a long, long time.
3) The Economy
We've all got that feeling in the pit of our stomachs. The economy is going to crash, and hard. The housing bubble has popped, and we're up to our eyeballs in dept. Barring some sort of divine intervention, the economic conditions in the US will cause a) increased interest rates, or b) inflation, or even c) stagflation. If the Republicans are still in control of the government when this happens, the blame will lie solely on them. They may even have to raise taxes (ha!).
When this happens, people are actually going to care about the fact that health care is unaffordable, and that college is too expensive.
4) Ohio
I already mentioned it, but it's so important that I'll say it again. OHIO is CRUCIAL to 2008, and we've basically got Ohio in the bag! Let's see if Dems get Ohio's SOS/Legislature. If we take those offices, we're looking good for '08 (I wish Warner was still running...)
5) Iraq
It's only going to get worse. It's Bush's war. It's the Republican's war. It's going to change the way American's view foreign policy. If we're in Iraq for another couple of years, America, in general, will become more dovish/culturally liberal. We'll be able to peel off the blue-collar voters that we lost to Reagan.
6) 2008
I know I'm being redundant here, but the White House matters more than anything else. If the Dems don't take the house, and they manage the media narrative reasonably well, 2008 will be a great Democratic year. The Republicans won't be able to fix the problems they've created because THEY CAN'T GOVERN.
7) Realignment
If we take the house, I still see realignment as possible, but it's even more likely if we don't. We know that most of the macro trends favor democrats, especially because the Repubs can't win without their rabid fundamentalist anti-immigrant base. For all of Rove's talk about an enduring Republican majority, he's really sacrificing the long term for the short term. The GOP is going the KEEP ALIENATING HISPANICS AND INDEPENDENT. Once things get bad enough (Iraq and the Economy are going to look REALLY BAD), there will be a realignment where Hispanics, and basically everyone who doesn't believe in the rapture/apocalypse, are going to identify with the left wing and the Democratic party. If we don't take the house, it will only speed up this process.
I hope that this at least somewhat intelligible. I watched MSNBC for about two minutes, and it put me in a frenzy. I welcome comments that challenge my assumptions/conclusions, but please don't criticize me on my disorganized and redundant writing style :)