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The contract for the GOP holding the Senate is all over the map today but has been down as much as 5 points.  I don't see any new polling to suggest the race has changed since yesterday.  Anybody know what is driving this?

Also, if anyone is on TS and is looking for good value, the GOP.HOUSE.2006 contract is still trading around 20-21, which is (to my eye) ridiculously inflated.  I'd be surprised if they have even a 5% chance to hold the House tomorrow, given that they'd have to practically run the field in tossups.

Originally posted to stillnotking on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 02:57 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Some of this might be irrational noise (0+ / 0-)

    At the same the same time that GOP.SEN.2006 was going down, VA.SENATE06.DEM was going down. Seeing as the odds now place Virginia as the critical seat for control of the Senate, that's a bit weird.

  •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

    18 is the all time low for the house.  It was down to 18.8 today and then bounced back up.  Now it is at 20.5, were it started they day.  I don't know what to make of all of this.  Does 20.5 mean that the GOP only has a 20.5% chance of winning according to these guys?

    God does not bless a nation that tortures.

    by RichM on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 02:59:51 PM PST

    •  Essentially, yes (0+ / 0-)

      If the GOP holds the House, those contracts expire at 100.  If the Dems win, they expire at 0.  So the current price represents what the market "thinks" is the true value of those contracts, which corresponds to the 0-100 chance of GOP victory.

      Mission Accomplished: The ultimate in premature ejaculations.

      by stillnotking on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 03:08:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  two races you could make money off of (0+ / 0-)

    harold ford (TN-Sen) and dina titus (NV-Gov). those are way down and they shouldn't be. i would buy some spots if i had the right credit card. against all odds, i think they're going to win.

  •  Alaska Gov. (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know what's going on out there, but traders are dumping their shares of "GOP Victory". Down 25 points. "Dem Victory" is up by 10.

    You're one microscopic cog in his catastrophic plan designed and directed by his red right hand

    by RandyMI on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 03:02:59 PM PST

    •  If only I could figure out how to read (0+ / 0-)

      that website. I do check in over there but not being one who bets on sports and horses I have no clue as to what the current numbers are. I do see the % on some of the Senate races on the front page of Huff Post. The odds have looked really slim over there for Us to take back the Senate. The numbers look good elsewhere. I just really hope McCaskill in MO gets in. Taking MO, OH and PA will be huge for me, then throw in VA, RI and Montana or Tn and My live will be complete for a long while or at least until Bush may have to name a SCOTUS nominee.

      I am typing my fingers to the bone for Harry, his little hippie River, us, and America.

      by Chamonix on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 03:19:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  parlay on Dem control of both houses at 28.5 (0+ / 0-)

    I'm going to get in on that.  All of the single race Senate futures point toward a six point pick up.

  •  Never mind (0+ / 0-)

    It was just noise.  It's back in the 70-72 range now, which (IMO) is more realistic.  I would have bought, but I've already gone long on a parlay of R Senate/D House.

    Maybe too long.  I'm tempted to cover.  But I won't.

    Mission Accomplished: The ultimate in premature ejaculations.

    by stillnotking on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 05:53:24 PM PST

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