Cautionary note--I am sure I have missed a few. Sorry. Today was a work day, and I also had a few other obligations today. I got what I could, which is two national polls and over 50 individual races.
Follow me below the fold for the last of it.....
A day after the Pew, ABC, and Gallup polls put every Democrat into a clinical depression, two polls are out today that seem to reverse the "trend" away from the Democrats in the final weekend.
Quick note of calm--Chuck Todd over at Hotline astutely (and correctly) points out that several major polls tightened in the weekend before the 1994 midterms, leading to the inevitable "late surge" stories by the press. I remember those stories, and they gave me a touch of false hope right before we got our asses handed to us.
Now onto today's national polling. CNN polls the weekend, and finds the Congressional ballot at a near-record gap, with Democrats at 58% and Republicans at 38%. Interestingly, the gap among registered voters is "only" 15 points. So, unlike some of the others, they see a likely voter poll that is MORE Democratic than the nation at large. The gap among likely voters moves nine points in the Democrats direction in one week. Bush's job approval is at 35%, down four from last week.
Meanwhile, Fox News also polls the weekend, and finds slight changes to both of their numbers, as Democrats move to a 13-point lead in the generic ballot (49-36), which is up two for the Democrats since last week. Bush's job approval drops a couple of points as well, down to 38%.
So far, we have 51 individual contests in the books. In the interests of time, I will not do full analyses of each one, but will give individual survey results when races have more than one poll today.
On the final momentum meter, we see a total of 19 races with Democratic momentum versus 11 races with Republican momentum. 21 races had neutral (or stagnant) momentum, including most of the toss ups.
AL-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Riley (R) 58.5%, Baxley (D) 36.5% [GOP]
Widely disparate results from Polimetrix (58-42), and the Birmingham News (59-31).
AK-01: Rep. Young (R) 48%, Benson (D) 41% [Dems]
This new poll from Hays Research again shows this race very close.
AZ-GOV: Gov. Napolitano (D) 57%, Munsil (R) 41% [GOP]
Closer than anticipated, according to Polimetrix. Hope for the Senate poll??!!??
AZ-SEN: Sen. Kyl (R) 50%, Pederson (D) 46% [Dems]
Polimetrix has this one tightening fast at the close.
CA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 52.5%, Angelides (D) 40% [Neutral]
SUSA has it at 15 (53-38), Polimetrix has it at 10 (52-42).
CA-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Feinstein (D) 60.5%, Mountjoy (R) 30% [Dems]
Consistent numbers from SUSA (60-31) and Polimetrix (61-29).
CO-GOV: Ritter (D) 60%, Beauprez (R) 40% [Neutral]
Polimetrix on this one--a bit misleading, since there are third-party candidates here.
CT-GOV: Gov. Rell (R) 64%, DeStefano (D) 32% [GOP]
Polimetrix does not buy the late mini-break for the challenger here.
CT-SEN: (3 polls) Lieberman (CfL) 49%, Lamont (D) 40% [Dems]
Quinnipiac (50-38) and SUSA (49-38) see no late shift. Polimetrix (48-44) sees a sizeable late shift.
FL-GOV (4 polls) Crist (R) 51%, Davis (D) 43.8% [Dems]
SUSA sees a major late break here (49-47). Others are more skeptical--including Strategic Vision (51-44), Polimetrix (54-42), and Rasmussen (50-42). Will the Bush snub work for Crist, or depress his base voters?
FL-SEN: (3 polls): Sen. Nelson (D) 59%, Harris (R) 35% [Neutral]
Pick your pollster: SUSA (59-36), Strategic Vision (58-35) and Polimetrix (60-34) all say that Harris is done.
GA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Perdue (R) 54.5%, Taylor (D) 40% [GOP]
Strategic Vision (51-38) and Polimetrix (again ignoring the third-party candidate; 58-42) agree that Taylor is probably done, and the runoff option is looking less likely.
IL-GOV: Gov. Blagojevich (D) 61%, Topinka (R) 39% [Dems]
Here is where the Polimetrix study gets a little sloppy...we don't even account for Rich Whitney in our survey? He's only getting 10-15% of the freaking vote...
IA-GOV: Culver (D) 54%, Nussle (R) 46% [Neutral]
Polimetrix here, with a very small sample....
KS-GOV: Gov. Sebellius (D) 57%, Barnett (R) 40% [Neutral]
In even better news for lovers of individual liberty, Phill Kline is trailing Democrat Paul Morrison by 13 points, according to this new SUSA poll.
KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 50%, Rep. Northup (R) 45% [Neutral]
This SUSA poll shows a slight movement to Northup, but also shows a Yarmuth lead of some note.
KY-04: Rep. Davis (R) 49%, Lucas (D) 43% [GOP]
This SUSA poll shows late movement to the Republican, who has been dramatically outspending the Democrat at the wire.
ME-GOV: Gov. Baldacci (D) 36%, Woodcock (R) 30% [Neutral]
Interestingly, the big story in this SUSA poll is the late rise of independent (and former Dem) Barbara Merill, who is at 21% in the new poll.
MD-GOV: (2 polls) O'Malley (D) 50%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 47.5% [Dems]
After weekend polls showed this race dead even, Polimetrix (50-48) and SUSA (50-47) show this race creeping back to O'Malley.
MD-SEN: (2 polls) Cardin (D) 50%, Steele (R) 45.5% [Dems]
As with the gubernatorial race, both SUSA (49-46) and Polimetrix (51-45) have this race creeping to the Democrats.
MA-GOV: Patrick (D) 61%, Healey (R) 32% [Dems]
In one of the more surprising Polimetrix results, they have Patrick now up almost thirty on Healey.
MA-SEN: Sen. Kennedy (D) 67%, Chase (R) 27% [Neutral]
Polimetrix confirms the blowout we all knew was coming.
MI-GOV: (3 polls) Gov. Granholm (D) 52.8%, DeVos (R) 43.3% [GOP]
Yes, I am aware there is a Mitchell Communications poll out there with Granholm up just two. However, I could not specifics on it, and thus did not publish it. The three listed here are Polimetrix (55-43), SurveyUSA (51-45), and Strategic Vision (52-42).
MI-SEN: (3 polls) Sen. Stabenow (D) 52.3%, Bouchard (R) 42% [GOP]
Ditto on Mitchell (which says Stabenow is just up four here). Meanwhile, Polimetrix has it at 15 (55-40), Strategic Vision at six (50-44), and SUSA at ten (52-42).
MN-GOV: Hatch (D) 49%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 45% [Neutral]
Polimetrix gives Hatch a narrow lead, as have all of the other recent pollsters.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 57%, Kennedy (R) 39% [Neutral]
Ditto here for Polimetrix--Kennedy appears not to have surged at the close.
MO-SEN: (4 polls) McCaskill (D) 49.5%, Sen. Talent (R) 46.5% [Neutral]
The nation's toss-up Senate race stubbornly continues in that role right up till the last minute. In one poll (Rasmussen), Talent leads by one (49-48). In one poll (Gallup), McCaskill leads by four (49-45). In the third poll (Polimetrix), they are tied (50-50, although the pollster acknowledged a slight McCaskill lead of less than 1%). A late-breaking fourth poll from SUSA gives McCaskill a huge edge (52-41), but they even seemed a bit skeptical
MT-SEN: Tester (D) 50%, Sen. Burns (R) 41% [Dems]
After a series of toss-up polls here, Gallup comes in with Tester up nine. What the heck do we make out of this one??!!??
NV-GOV: Gibbons (R) 51%, Titus (D) 44% [Neutral]
This Polimetrix poll shows Gibbons winning with some room to spare...apparently, CQ does not agree...they changed the status of this race to Toss Up earlier tonight.
NV-SEN: Sen. Ensign (R) 53%, Carter (D) 42% [Dems]
Polimetrix polls late here, and shows a small movement towards the Democrat here.
NJ-SEN: (4 polls) Sen. Menendez (D) 50%, Kean (R) 44% [Neutral]
The Menendez lead appears solid at this point, with all four pollsters (Gallup at 50-40, Qunnipiac at 48-43, Strategic Vision at 49-42, and Polimetrix at 53-47) giving the Democrat a lead of at least five points.
NM-01: Rep. Wilson (R) 48%, Madrid (D) 46% [GOP]
(My final) CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, conducted for the Wilson campaign by Public Opinion Strategies.
NY-GOV: Spitzer (D) 69%, Faso (R) 24% [GOP]
Interestingly, Polimetrix polls the Governors race, but not the Senate one??!!??
NY-26: Rep. Reynolds (R) 47%, Davis (D) 46% [Dems]
This Zogby poll tells us that this race might not be over just yet.
OH-GOV: (3 polls) Strickland (D) 58.7%, Blackwell (R) 36.7% [GOP]
The Ohio Poll (59-37), Polimetrix (62-35) and SUSA (55-38) confirm the blowout. Another bit of schaudenfreude for the Democrats.
OH-SEN: (3 polls) Brown (D) 56%, Sen. DeWine (R) 42% [Neutral]
Again, we see three polls from The Ohio Poll (56-44), Polimetrix (58-40), and SUSA (54-42), all confirming the Democratic pickup here.
OR-GOV: Kulongoski (D) 54%, Saxton (R) 46% [Neutral]
Once again, we have a situation where Polimetrix ignores third-party candidates. Very strange, if I do say so myself.
PA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Rendell (D) 60.5%, Swann (R) 36% [Dems]
Strategic Vision (58-35) and Polimetrix (61-37) confirm the lead. See you on the NCAA sideline coverage again, Swannie. I, for one, liked the work you did there.
PA-SEN: (2 polls) Casey (D) 54%, Santorum (R) 40% [Dems]
Strategic Vision (52-40) and Polimetrix (56-40) confirm the pickup. Quiz question--who are liberals happier to see lose tomorrow, should the polls prove prophetic--Harris, Blackwell, or Santorum??
RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 48%, Sen. Chafee (R) 45% [Dems]
This Gallup poll has an interesting dynamic. Among registered voters, Whitehouse was up, and up BIG. Among likelies, it drops to three. Hmm??!!??
SC-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Sanford (R) 56.5%, Moore (D) 42% [Dems]
Late polling here shows a slight surge for the challenger, as SUSA (57-40) and Polimetrix (56-44) have it within 20 points again.
TN-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Bredesen (D) 62.5%, Bryson (R) 32.5% [GOP]
Hollow momentum, indeed, as both Polimetrix (63-31) and SUSA (62-34) have Bryson losing by nearly a two-to-one margin.
TN-SEN: (3 polls) Corker (R) 50.3%, Ford (D) 46% [Dems]
Three polls with a small Corker lead: Gallup (49-46), Polimetrix (51-46), and SUSA (51-46).
TX-GOV: Perry (R) 43%, Bell (D) 28% [Neutral]
Polimetrix polls here...no data on the third and fourth place contestants.
TX-SEN: Sen. Hutchison (R) 65%, Radnofsky (D) 29% [GOP]
Polimetrix shows this one sliding away from the Democrats.
UT-SEN: Sen. Hatch (R) 66%, Ashdown (D) 34% [Neutral]
Not close...was never close. This is from Polimetrix.
UT-01: Rep. Bishop (R) 58%, Olsen (D) 26% [Dems]
Mason Dixon polls here, and finds a lesser blowout than usual in this heavily Republican CD.
UT-02: Rep. Matheson (D) 62%, Christensen (R) 29% [Dems]
When was the last time Democrats won a district in Utah in a total blowout??!!?? This poll from Mason Dixon.
VA-SEN: (3 Polls) Webb (D) 49.3%, Sen. Allen (R) 47.7% [Neutral]
Pick your poll here as well: Gallup has it Allen by 3 (49-46), SUSA has it Webb by 8 (52-44), and Polimetrix has it tied (50-50).
WA-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Cantwell (D) 55%, McGavick (R) 42.5% [GOP]
A slight (3 point) bump to the Republican in this set of polls from Strategic Vision (53-42) and Polimetrix (57-43).
WV-SEN: Sen. Byrd (D) 67%, Raese (R) 33% [Dems]
Remember when this one was supposed to be close? From Polimetrix.
WI-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Doyle (D) 50.5%, Green (R) 44% [Neutral]
Strategic Vision says this one is still close (48-45)...Polimetrix says it is not (53-43).
WI-SEN: Sen. Kohl (D) 69%, Lorge (R) 24% [Dems]
Anyone here still buying Zogby Interactive's poll here saying this was in the single digits??!! This one from Polimetrix.
And, that does it....at last. Now, comes the fun part...actually counting the votes.
By the way, since I was at work during the prediction thread...here is mine.
HOUSE--Democrats gain 28 seats.
SENATE--Democrats gain 6 seats.
GOVERNORS--Democrats gain 7 state houses.
Have a good Election Day...let's work hard to make it a good one, I guess I should say. Take care, everyone.....