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From the diaries -- kos)
I'm in Jackson on Election Eve after driving through the Green River Basin with a stop for an event for Gary Trauner in Pinedale. I spent yesterday at a meet & greet in Evanston and walked around town, knocking on doors with fellow Kossack, Fishgrease, amongst others. As you have probably read, Kos has predicted that Trauner will win. Let me tell you why I think he's right.
First, the numbers favor Trauner. In the latest polling he's statistically even with Cubin and her unfavorables are greater than her favorables. Voters know Cubin and it's hard to see the undecideds breaking her way. So if Trauner can win Casper, take Laramie, Sweetwater, and Teton counties, and performs well in the north - he need not necessarily take them - he'll win. Trauner feels good about Sheridan and other counties in the north as well.
Second, my gut has me thinking about the Freudenthal race of 2002. I have Republican family members here in WY, including one who's a country commissioner, who voted for Freudenthal in 2002. Trauner is encountering the same phenomena in this campaign. At the event in Pinedale, I talked with an active Republican Party member who was conflicted about how he'll vote because of Cubin's ineffectiveness and support for corporate interests over the people of Wyoming. He may not vote for Trauner in the end, but he's experiencing the same dissatisfaction that a lot of other Wyoming people feel. Cubin is just out of touch with the state. Trauner has worked so hard, introduced himself to so many people, listened to their concerns, and that gives him what I think will push him over the edge. Cubin just hasn't been seen. Several constituents mentioned this in conversations.
As mcjoan wrote about earlier, going door-to-door with Trauner is a sight to behold. He is an affable guy who makes people feel at ease. Trauner handles tough questions and pledges of support with grace. He doesn't talk out both sides of his mouth and sticks to his ideals.
What is extraordinary is that in communities like Evanston we didn't encounter a person who offered support for Cubin. Some folks were indifferent, maybe being polite since they were supporting Cubin, but most acknowledged a need for change. Cubin has had 12 years to get results and in the views of many she's just not getting the job done. Cubin's personal attacks haven't resonated because Trauner does represent Wyoming values. He's fiscally conservative and is dismayed that Republican-controlled government doesn't want to discuss the dangerous deficit. He wants to protect personal and civil liberties; favors gun rights, and demands answers regarding the war.
Today, Trauner knocked on doors in Star Valley, making stops in Afton and Thayne. Star Valley a very religious part of Wyoming that borders the Utah & Idaho and he faces challenges in districts like this. There he is though, fighting for every vote because as he says, "I just don't want to lose by a small number of votes and regret not walking that extra block. I will work for all of Wyoming"
He then made his way to Pinedale for a radio interview and then a meet & greet at Stockman's. He worked the room so well, connected with a lot of voters. I sat near an undecided voter who was concerned about abortion and conservation of public lands. During Trauner's speech, she was frequently nodding her head in agreement. Afterwards, she said she was convinced that Gary was a strong leader and could be good for Wyoming. She thinks she will give him a chance.
As I said, I made my way up to Pinedale through the Green River Basin and made a stop in Kemmerer. There I ran into a Trauner volunteer, Tim Gaughan, on the street. He's been canvassing for Gary for almost as long as Gary. Kemmerer is BP, Chevron, and mining territory with a fair number of union members. Gary should do well here. Outside of town, there are real cowboys living in trailers. They're tending to the sheep with the help of their dog and some horses. Further north, you enter Halliburton country where they're pumping oil and gas out of the ground. This is tough area for dems and the few folks I spoke with in Marbleton said they weren't voting Democratic, but they weren't voting Republican either. They weren't voting period.
Even though this race looked like a long shot a few months ago, I expect to be celebrating here in Jackson tomorrow night. As a bumper sticker in the Snake River Brewing Company says, "Ding Dong The Witch is Dead, Replace Barbra (sic) Cubin."