"Joe is going to have his Paid thugs wearing some kind of sandwich boards [at the polls] with diagrams on how to find him on the ballot, for those simple minded people who will be voting for him."
the lieberman campaign is really really freaked out that the technicalities of joe's queer ballot position will sink joe.
this is a very real factor; just look at what the famous FLA butterfly ballot did to gore in 2000, and the FLA butterfly ballot was published in advance in all the newspapers!
think about this; EVERYONE who wants to vote for joe must ticket-split, EVERYONE.
that's a LOT of ticket-splitting, and I just don't see enough passionate love of joe out there for that much ticket-splitting to happen for joe to win!
(see more below)
the pollsters have never modeled joe's queer ballot position and
the amount of ticket-splitting that joe needs to win.
yes, people do split their tickets, but that much?
I believe that a lot of people in CT still vote right across a single party line without even bothering to read the individual candidates' names, and I suspect that a lot of joe's own voters will vote straight Dem or straight Repub tickets, incorrectly thinking that joe is actually on either the Dem ballot line or the Repub ballot line, and they won't even bother to check.
joe's campaign has been very confusing, ie, is he running as a Dem (since joe claims he is still a Dem), or is he running as an Independent Dem (which is what joe calls himself), or is he running as a Repub (since joe has been seen with & endorsed by many Repubs.)
remember, joe's voters are predominantly of the uninformed casual low-info type after all, and that is a lot for a low-info voter to sort out, I think!
we have NEVER had such a confusing situation, aggravated by the many hats that joe himself wears, ie, Dem, Independent Dem (huh, what's that??), & Repub, and the pollsters have never modeled that confusion.
and add on top of that the fact that this is a 3-way race!
ct keith said it best; 80% of ned's 40% estimated rock-solid poll base will actually cast votes for ned, while just 50% of joe's 50% estimated soft & weak & confused poll base will actually cast votes for joe, and that is how we will win!