So I didn't nap, couldn't fall asleep, but I relaxed, read quietly without the pressure of having to post, played with my son, and had a pretty relaxing day all things considered. I should be back at full strength tomorrow.
But I decided to take stock of my predictions. They've sure gotten better from the last couple of years, especially since I actually offered vote spreads:
I did okay. I nailed the Senate races, did okay on the point spread. In the governor's races, I miscalled two governor races but otherwise did okay on the point spreads. And in the House, I said we'd pick up either 24 or 36. So I was wrong twice.
Use this thread to brag about or lament your predictions. And as educated as my predictions might've been, they were still guesses. I attribute all my correct predictions to blind luck.
In the House, I wrote:
24 seat pickup if there's no wave, which I think is the likelier outcome.
36 seat pickup if there is a wave.
In the Senate:
Minnesota:
Predicted: 15-point Klobuchar (D) win
Actual: 20-point Klobuchar win
Michigan:
Predicted: 13-point Stabenow (D) win
Actual: 16-point Stabenow win
Washington:
Predicted: 12-point Cantwell (D) win
Actual: 19-point Cantwell win
New Jersey:
Predicted: 10-point Menendez (D) win
Actual: 8-point Menendez win
Pennsylvania:
Predicted: 10-point Casey (D) win
Actual: 18-point Casey win
Ohio:
Predicted: 8-point Brown (D) win
Actual: 12-point Brown win
Maryland:
Predicted: 7-point Cardin (D) win
Actual: 10-point Cardin win
Rhode Island:
Predicted: 6 -point Whitehouse (D) win
Actual: 6-point Whitehouse win
Montana:
Predicted: 4-point Tester (D) win
Actual: 1-point Tester win
Virginia:
Predicted: 4-point Webb (D) win
Actual: 1-point Webb win
Missouri:
Predicted: 1-point McCaskill (D) win
Actual: 1-point McCaskill win
Arizona:
Predicted: 5-point Kyl (R) win
Actual: 9-point Kyl win
Tennessee:
Predicted: 8-point Corker (R) win
Actual: 3-point Corker win
Nevada:
Predicted: 10-point Ensign (R) win
Actual: 14-point Ensign win
In the Governorships:
I'm seeing a 8-seat gain in governorships.
The final tally was six. I knew I was optimistic with Alaska. And I really, really thought we'd take Minnesota. Sigh...
New York:
Predict: 30-point Spitzer (D) win
Actual: 40-point Spitzer win
Massachusetts:
Predict: 24-point Patrick (D) win
Actual: 21-point Patrick win
Ohio:
Predict: 20-point Strickland (D) win
Actual: 23-point Strickland win
Colorado:
Predict: 14-point Ritter (D) win
Actual: 15-point Ritter win
Arkansas:
Predict: 10-point Beebe (D) win
Actual: 15-point Beebe win
Illinois:
Predict: 10-point Blagojevich (D) win
Actual: 10-point Blagojevich win
Michigan:
Predict: 10-point Granholm (D) win
Actual: 14-point Granholm win
Wisconsin:
Predict: 8-point Doyle (D) win
Actual: 8-point Doyle win
Oregon:
Predict: 7-point Kulongoski (D) win
Actual: 8-point Kulongoski win
Maryland:
Predict: 6-point O'Malley (D) win
Actual: 7-point O'Malley win
Maine:
Predict: 6-point Baldacci (D) win
Actual: 8-point Baldacci win
Minnesota:
Predict: 4-point Hatch (D) win
Actual: 1-point Pawlenty (R) win
Iowa:
Predict: 3-point Culver (D) win
Actual: 10-point Culver win
Alaska:
Predict: 2-point Knowles (D) win
Actual: 8-point Palin (R) win
Nevada:
Predict: 3-point Gibbons (R) win
Actual: 4-point Gibbons win
Idaho:
Predicted: 4-point Otter (R) win
Actual: 9-point Otter win
Rhode Island:
Predicted: 7-point Carcieri (R) win
Actual: 2-point Carcieri win
Florida:
Predicted: 8-point Crist (R) win
Actual: 7-point Crist win
California:
Predicted: 12-point Schwarzenegger (R) win
Actual: 17-point Scwarzenegger win