Today the Social Security (OASDI) Trustees release their 2005 look in the 75-year crystal ball -- the primary source of quotable assumptions for public dialog in the year to come.
[UPDATE: And it's out -- and it's dark! 2018 goes to 2017, 2042 goes to 20412017 ... let's see how they did this. ... OK, mostly in the economic assumptions: economy got rosier, forecast got thornier. Dig we must.]
John Snow live on C-SPAN, 12:30 EST. Max Sawicky now live-blogging from Treasury. (Anticipatory comment in progress.) CBPP hosts an analytical conference call at 2pm EST. Others (wise and otherwise) will chime in through the day.
Speculation abounds. Will above-forecast growth push the depletion date (2042) farther into the distance?
By exposing unrealistically dark assumptions, today's data -- and spin -- can shade the debate inour favor or even put the "crisis" thesis in extremis.
Fudge factors? Actuaries (who write the report) are career pro's with a strong institutional culture. Trustees (who sign it) are mostly Bushite political hacks. The assumptions themselves can throw you a curve.
My read is that the 2042 Day of Reckoning goes +2, approaching +3. Bruce Webb looks for +4 if they play it straight.
Past OASDI Trustees Reports, and the 2005 edition (when issued), in HTML and PDF here.
I'll update with other coverage as I find it.
Matt Ygelsias dubs it Wonk Arnageddon, and has more at TAPPED.
CAP's Christian Weller has five questions.
Does ThereIsNoCrisis know it's a red-letter day?
Atrios is on the case, and Matt Y at TAPPED is all over it here, and here here.