Election 2006 Analysis: Florida

An Opportunity for More Change

(cross-posted at my new local progressive blog Space Coast Rising)

The 2006 elections yielded mixed results for Florida Democrats. Great gains were made, but they fell behind many expectations. We reelected Bill Nelson (D) to the United States Senate, but we fell short of electing a Democratic governor. We have a new Democratic Chief Financial Officer, but the majority of statewide offices are still held by Republicans. We made gains in the state legislature, but we are still outnumbered in both chambers. The biggest gain came from the U.S. House seats. Only four districts in the whole Southeast region flipped--two of them were in Florida. Another one is currently contested, and might end up in a recount.

Below I will examine our gains and losses while making suggestions for future strategies.

U.S. House Delegation

First, our victories:

FL-16 (map) (R+2)

This race was catapulted to national status when disgraced Republican Rep. Mark Foley was accused of inappropriate communication with young pages. Foley resigned, but because of Florida election law his name remained on the ballot. Democrat Tim Mahoney went from likely loser to superstar.

While Foley's name remained on the ballot, Joe Negron was nominated by the state Republican Party to take his place in the event Foley won. The GOP subsequently launched a massive voter education campaign to notify voters of the change. A court ruling also allowed neutral notices of the switch to be placed at polling places at the option of the individual election supervisors.

The vote was 49-48 for Mahoney, or a 4,404 vote margin. Many conservatives claim Mahoney will become one-term wonder and voters in FL-16 will elect Joe Negron in 2008.

I think this assessment ignores many key points:

• The Republican PVI in this district is fairly small (+2)


• Ruling out Mahoney for a second term largely ignores the power of incumbency and his obvious fundraising advantage


• Voters in FL-16 have been shown more than anyone else the corruption present in the Republican Party


• Finally, election notices were posted informing voters that a vote for Foley counted for Negron. So while having Foley's name on the ballot did play a role in Negron's defeat, it was minimal.

The bottom line in this district: Tim Mahoney's fate is by no means decided in 2008. The power of incumbency coupled with the low Republican PVI may keep him in Congress for many years to come. The outcome of the next race will be intimately dependent on the national mood in 2008, and whether or not the Democratic Presidential nominee will help  Mahoney.

One additional thing is clear: Mahoney must work to turn out Democratic voters in the heavily blue eastern (D+14) part of his district in 2008.

Long-term projection - Tossup (as long as Mahoney stays in)

FL-22 (map) (D+4)

In a historic battle, Democrat Ron Klein beat long-term incumbent Republican Clay Shaw by 51-47. This district leans Democratic, so it look like Ron Klein will avoid the challenges facing Mahoney and keep his seat easily. FL-22 will be an integral part of a long-term Democratic majority.

Long-term projection - Lean Dem

Note: We should continue to look for more districts in Florida with a Republican incumbent, but a small Democratic or Republican PVI. SCR will have more on that later.

Others:

FL-13 (map) (R+4)

This is Katherine Harris' old seat, and it is only fitting for there to be serious election difficulties. On the first count, Republican Vern Buchanan beat Democratic candidate Christine Jennings by a 368-vote margin. While this is a small enough margin for an automatic recount, many of the votes were cast on electronic voting machines, making a recount impossible. Somehow precincts in Sarasota County registered 18,000 undervotes in this race. Jennings has pledged to pursue every avenue possible, including taking the results to court. The Florida Democratic Party has also pledged its support.

Long-term projection - depends on recount/court result

FL-15 (map) (R+4)

This district is one of the two on the Space Coast, so naturally we'll be heavily involved in covering this race in 2008. This year long-term incumbent and David Weldon won by a 56-44 margin. This was Weldon's worst showing since he was elected to Congress in the Republican "Revolution" of 1994.

From an email by Weldon's Democratic opponent Dr. Bob Bowman:

First, the phenomenal stats: our percentage of the votes was 9% higher than the previous Dem candidate for District 15. Our final percentage was 43.7%, a VERY respectable showing against a six-time incumbent who raised six times what we did, from his corporate friends. This was the best Democratic percentage ever against Weldon as an incumbent.
We can be very proud of our grassroots campaign, composed almost entirely of dedicated volunteers. From the beginning, we were the underdogs. For those of you who were with us back in February, you remember that even getting enough petitions to get on the ballot seemed a miracle - but we did it!

This race is winnable, especially due to some of Weldon's completely radical stances (Weldon introduced the Terri Shiavo legislation into Congress). The two things we need are massive people-power and a moderately well financed Democratic candidate who is willing to campaign aggressively.

Long-term projection: Lean Republican

FL-24 (map) (R+3)

FL-24 is the second district on the Space Coast.

This race gained some unusual attention when a Zogby poll showed incumbent Republican Tom Feeney only two points ahead (45-43) of Democratic challenger Clint Curtis.

Clint Curtis was asked by the corrupt Rep. Tom Feeney to create a program that would flip votes in computerized election machines undetectably. Curtis has since testified against Feeney in front of Congress. Then he ran against him.

Unfortunately, he ended up losing 58-42, but was massively outspent. Also, Tom Feeney drew this district for himself when he was Florida House -Majority leader- Speaker.

This district may end up being more competitive in the future than it seems because of Tom Feeney's ties to lobbyist and felon Jack Ambramoff

It was a shame Feeney's ties to Jack were never publicized in the media, but who knows what 2008 may bring.

Long-term Projection: Lean Republican

U.S. Senate

What can I say, it was a blowout. Democrat Bill Nelson carried the day against Katherine Harris 60-38. Nelson was driven largely by his moderate image, astronaut past, and willingness to talk to his constituents.

It is imperative Bill Nelson, buoyed by sky-high popularity, campaign heavily for Democratic candidates in 2008. This alone should push a few races over the top. Imagine if the map could always look this blue.

Statewide Constitutional Offices (R:3 - D:1)

Governor

Republican Charlie Crist defeated Democratic candidate Jim Davis by a healthy 52-45 margin. This race most exemplifies the challenges progressives will face in Florida for many years to come. Naturally, the Republicans lead in fundraising, gaining millions from the insurance industry. Crist began running ads against Davis right after the primary, while Davis did not get on the air until a few weeks before the election.

The only way a Democrat, running for Governor or President, can win in Florida is by instituting a massive GOTV operation in Democratic areas while microtargeting Democratic voters elsewhere in the state. Also, Democrats must work extremely hard on the voter registration front, where an increase in the youth vote can have a substantial impact. In fact, while the battle won't be completely won on the registration front, it can certainly be lost. Florida is a retirement state, so conservative-leaning seniors must be neutralized by new Democratic voters. Fighting hard on the Medicare and Social Security front is also a must.

Chief Financial Officer

Democrat Alex Sink defeated Republican candidate Tom Lee 54-46, ending the GOP's 4-year monopoly on the Florida cabinet. This raises the total of statewide Democrats from 1 to 2. Hey, a 100% increase ain't bad!

Attorney General

Bill McCollum beat Democrat Walter "Skip" Campbell 53-47. This was a fairly close election, but allegations that Campbell supported a bill requiring adopting mothers to list all of their sexual partners in the newspaper probably cost him the election. The allegations proved to be a distortion.

Agriculture Commissioner

Incumbent Republican Charles Bronson had an easy time with Democratic candidate Eric Copeland, beating him 57-43.

Florida Legislature

The changes here were all in the positive direction. Unfortunately, there weren't many.

State Senate

The state senate remained static

SENATE: D=14; R=26 (no change)

State House

HOUSE: D=42; R=78 (D+7)

Seriously contesting every U.S. House and state House/Senate race is extremely important. It is much easier for Democratic candidates to win when other Democrats are running up and down the ticket. This will be our biggest challenge in 2008 and beyond.

•  Tips/flames

  Progress has been made, but we still have a lot of work to do in the Sunshine State.

  by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:01:49 PM PDT

•  Nice work.

  Glad to see Sink elected...she was an excellent candidate. But she was actually the first Cabinet Dem since 1998, so it's been a repug streak of 6 years, not 4.

  As for McCollum, it goes to show that if you keep running for office after office, eventually you'll win one.

  It's also almost unbelievable to say this, but Tuesday's Democratic gains in the House were the first in 16 years.

  For all the talk about how "purple" Florida is, it's really just a few blue counties surrounded by vast swaths of red.

  by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:16:41 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for the input

    Has it really been 16 years since a Florida House gain? Wow.

    There might only be a few blue counties, but they're also incredibly large population-wise. I think if we aggressively turn out the vote in those counties and get Senator Nelson to help campaign for us elsewhere in the state, we have a really good chance in 2008. It all depends on the nominee, though.

    The Orlando Sentinel is telling me it's only been four years of total GOP control:

    The Republican sweep of the Cabinet was short-lived. The GOP won all the seats for the first time in 2002.

    I was under the impression that the Democrats lost hold of the State AG in 2002.

    by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:30:30 PM PDT

    •  whoops...clarification on two fronts.

      First 2006-1998 would be 8 years, not 6. Math is fun!

      And Sink was the first to win since 1998. That was when Butterworth won his last election for AG, and yes, he did serve until 2002. So it's been 4 years since there was a Dem in the Cabinet, 8 years since one won an election.

      As far as Nelson, even he won't be able to save our poor gerrymandered candidates. The redistricting amendments that were supposed to be on the ballot would've saved us. Unfortunately, they got thrown off the ballot by the courts, and now if they're ever put back on, they'll need 60% to pass. Redistricting has clear partisan connotations (Dems want to un-gerrymander the state, Repugs want the status quo), so I highly doubt it will ever be able to muster 60%. Long live gerrymandering in Florida.

      by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:36:32 PM PDT

      •  He might not be able to save the gerrymandered

        candidates, but Nelson can at least make a noticeable difference in the Presidential race.

        The Constitutional Amendment requiring a 60% vote for future Constitutional Amendments was one of the stupidest things Floridians could have passed. Ironically, it passed with 58% of the vote. At least the minimum wage increase has already gone through.

        Also, while the much-needed gerrymandering ballot question looks doomed, so does the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Florida. That was thrown off the ballot this year, too.

        by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:45:49 PM PDT

        •  I agree that the 60% thing is stupid.

          The min wage amendment passed with over 70% of the vote so it would still pass today.

          I think they might have been trying to derail the upcoming anti-gerrymandering amendment. I think it'll still pass. There are enough reasonable people on the left and in the middle for it to get 60%.

          Hopefully that 60% mark will bite them in the ass the next time they try to pass some extreme/bigoted/conservative amendment. Then it'll be like when the repubs wanted the line item veto and then when Clinton was able to use it, they realized that the sword cuts both ways.

          by Step Beyond on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:56:36 PM PDT

          •  I really do hope the anti-gerrymandering

            amendment passes, but the Republicans may try to actively campaign against it this time, knowing they only need 40%+1 "no" votes. Luckily (in this case), it appears Floridians will instinctively vote "yes" on almost anything put in front of them.

            by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:03:11 PM PDT

            •  Yep

              I think the rail amendments proved that - people voted for it then voted for being against it the next time when Bush was weaseling out of it. Which gives us Florida Political Law # 872: Make sure that your side of an issue is the yes vote for the amendment, cause the people just don't like to read all the fancy words.

              by Step Beyond on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:08:18 PM PDT

  •  Alex Sink is awesome.

    Glad she won.

    Crist was so funny, running away from Bush and into the arms of McCain that day last week. Also ironic that Crist had a last-minute flip-flop on civil unions when he was all for it totally before, and then he campaigned with McCain who flip-flopped on the same issue last month on Hardball. If Davis had been as aggressive all summer as he was the last couple of weeks, he might have done better.  Crist ran a center-left campaign.

    Not too many statewide gains, but my county sacked two dipshit GOP councilmen for two progressive dems.  Small victories here in the sunchine state.

    by Sam Loomis on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:33:40 PM PDT

    •  Alex Sink is great

      and she received a huge amount of newspaper endorsements. Even papers that endorsed Crist/McCollum/Bronson endorsed Sink.

      Glad to hear about your county's gains. Unfortunately, Brevard continues to be stuck with an all-Republican County Commission, and all they do is argue.

      by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:40:58 PM PDT

      •  But you can still smoke on the beach!

        Wasn't that up for a vote in Brevard?

        by Sam Loomis on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:41:55 PM PDT

        •  IIRC it was just Cocoa Beach (n/t)

          by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:47:19 PM PDT

    •  Question

      Why was she able to win while the other candidates lost?

      by jiacinto on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:17:56 PM PDT

      •  Sink was so obviously better qualified

        for the job (former President of Bank of America). Almost every newspaper endorsed her, even the ones that endorsed Republicans in every other race.

        by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:19:34 PM PDT

        •  Ok

          So will she run for governor in 2010 or 2014?

          by jiacinto on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:40:26 PM PDT

  •  three blue islands in a sea of red...

    miami/dade metro, plus the two college towns, gainesville and tallahassee. the blue vote in tallahassee is what's left of the state employees. jeb has aggressively outsourced everything state government used to do, and just changes contractors when it doesn't work instead of actually manageing the problem. in a crack reminiscent of grover norquist's goal of drowning government in a bathtub, jeb's second inaugural speech mentioned his vision of "all these office buildings being empty" (referring to the governmental complex surrounding the state capitol). gives you the willies, it does.

    by campskunk on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:42:07 PM PDT

    •  What do you expect from a governor

      who is content with leading a state 47th in education...and continuing the same old failed policies over and over.

      by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:50:52 PM PDT

    •  Wow, I had never heard that.

      I wonder when the public will wake up and realize how sick it is for the people who are running the government to brag about how they want to dismantle the government. It gets us Katrina, abandoned veterans, underfunded schools, etc.

      At least I couldn't work up a good hate for Crist because he ran as a relative moderate. It's kind of sad when you realize how bad things are for Democrats in Florida that we're happy just to have a Republican moderate in the mansion.

      by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:52:06 PM PDT

•  Music to my ears:

  (re FL-13)  "Jennings has pledged to pursue every avenue possible, including taking the results to court. The Florida Democratic Party has also pledged its support."

  At last.

  by Bob Love on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:34:54 PM PDT

  •  We shouldn't give up on this one

    I live in FL-13 and clearly Jennings should have won this seat if all the votes were tallied. A recount is a waste of time as it will only prove what is already known. The touch screen machines jumped over this race and if the voter didn't catch it on the summary page, the race was skipped. I'm glad I live in Manatee county where we still have a paper ballot. At least we have a better chance of having our vote counted and a recount would have some value. Paper trail, Paper trail, Paper trail.

    by NOLA Native on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 05:10:13 AM PDT

    •  Paper Trail is coming in 2008

      thanks to the efforts of Sarasota Alliance for Fair Elections (SAFE).  Over 14,000 signed petitions were gathered in Sarasota County for the paper trail amendment to appear on the Nov. 7th ballot and it won!  The County Commission and FL Secretary of State sued SAFE in August, but Judge Bennett in Sarasota County ruled in SAFE's favor, so it was on the ballot and passed.  Obviously, if Sarasota County had this voting system in place last Tuesday, the FL-13 race wouldn't be in dispute right now.  Even if the race was close enough for a recount, there would be actual paper ballots to recount.  There can be no meaningful recount of the touch screens....just downloading the same incomplete votes orginally downloaded...waste of time in Sarasota County.  Best of luck to Christine that this will eventually be decided fairly in court or by the NEW House of Representative.

      by Sarasota Lib on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 09:48:16 AM PDT

•  Yeah us!

  Gotta agree that 100% increase is amazing. And that is how I'm going to keep thinking of it.

  I wish I had paid closer attention to the campaign ads I saw. There was one where the white man (that really limits who it could be eh?) started by talking about his love of God. There might have even been a Bible present. I remember it catching my eye in that annoyed way only a political ad can and was mumbling to myself about evil repubs when it turned out to be a dem ad. It was followed by a Crist ad where he talked about importing drugs from Canada and negotiating lower drug prices. I feel like I live in Bizzaro world sometimes.
  

  by Step Beyond on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:39:02 PM PDT

  •  The ad you saw

    was probably for Skip Campbell, but I'm not sure. He was known for touting his faith during the campaign.

    Crist ran as a populist (Sam Loomis has some comments on this up-thread), but somehow I don't think he'll deliver.

    by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 08:58:36 PM PDT

•  Hmm the congressional wins were solid

  I was very happy to see Tim Mahoney win and Ron Klein's win was big.  I think we won FL-13, Jennings has got to pursue whatever she can to win that seat.  I'm glad that Katherine Harris was finally beaten to a pulp for office.  Florida is the only place I fault Howard Dean for.  I think that if he had devoted significant resources to Jim Davis's campaign, we could have won the seat.  And that's important not just for the 2008 presidential race but for the 2011 redistricting (unless Crist really screws up, it will be hard to unseat him in 10').  Florida is ridiculously gerrymandered.

  I'm glad that the Democrats have broken the Republican stranglehold on elected office in Florida.  Isn't Alex Sink married to 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride?

  by SoCalLiberal on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:14:23 PM PDT

  •  Yes, Alex Sink is married to McBride

    Wiki Entry

    I also hope Jennings prevails in FL-13. 18,000 undervotes is just unreasonable.

    by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:17:43 PM PDT

  •  I totally agree that Jim Davis was screwed

    by the national Dems.  The DGA gave $1 million less to Davis than the RGA gave to Crist.  Davis was outspent 4 to 1 and still came relatively close.  A little more help and we could have had a Dem governor in Florida.

    It's about time for Florida to quit being a net exporter of political contributions to Democrats.  If the national Dems won't help in such an important race, I say screw them.

    by gatordem on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:08:09 PM PDT

•  What about FL-8?

  I'm from Virginia so I know little about Florida politics. The democrat got 46% of the vote and there was no national coverage except for a blurb in an LA Times article. Is this district a potential pickup in future elections?

  by smartguy11 on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:18:20 PM PDT

  •  The PVI in FL-8 is R+3

    Not an impossible mountain to climb, but one where the Democratic candidate must be well-financed and have an excellent ground operation (and have the national environment on his or her side). The Cook Political Report rated this seat as Likely Republican before the election, but it was at least on their radar.

    Beyond that, I have no idea how feasible it would be to win this seat. However, according to the 50-state strategy every seat is a potential pickup.

    by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:31:53 PM PDT

    •  Love the 50-state strategy

      I agree that every seat is possible. There are also a couple of things in our favor for next time, the great campaign ad starting point that Keller promised in 2000 only to serve 8 years (I believe he even signed a paper) and that he isn't really well liked. I live just outside FL-8 so I get to hear people talk and heard people talking about how he ignores his constituents (and this was from repubs).

      Of course the downside is money, which Keller will have and the lovely repub shape of the district. But neither of those things can't be overcome.

      by Step Beyond on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:46:28 PM PDT

      •  Hmm his 8 year pledge is very interesting

        At the very least it's something that can be used against him effectively...at best, it creates an open seat pickup opportunity.

        by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 09:57:10 PM PDT

        •  Exactly

          In fact, its one of those things that doesn't have to wait for a challenger to step up. A nice guerrilla marketing campaign perhaps starting a year before the election asking if Ric Keller is a man of his word not to run again could get it in the peoples minds before he even announces his intention to run again.

          by Step Beyond on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 07:20:57 AM PDT

•  Ammendments for 2008

  Will there be any initaitives out there to repeal Ammendment #3 that passed this year? Will there also be another attempt to permit for nonpartisan redistricting?

  by jiacinto on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:16:07 PM PDT

  •  I don't know about any initiatives

    to repeal Amendment #3, it's been less than a week since the election, so I doubt there's much going on right now (but I would support the effort).

    I think the nonpartisan redistricting will be on the ballot next time.

    by College Progressive on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:22:29 PM PDT

    •  Yeah

      But both initiatives need to be at the top of the list. A repeal of ammendment 3 should be a top priority.

      by jiacinto on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:41:03 PM PDT

•  Well

  One major problem is that Florida's districts have been drawn to heavily favor the Republicans. Florida actually is a textbook case as to why racial minority-majority districting has hurt Democrats. Although I am sure that some people will disagree with me, because these districts hurt white Democrats, the end result is often heavily-tilting GOP state legislations less sympathetic to the concerns of minoriies.

  Florida typifies the worst examples of racial gerrymandering. Corrine Brown's district, the 3rd, basically takes in every Democratic from Jacknsonville to Orlando. It takes in Gainesville as well. It basically takes in every Democratic precinct north of South Florida and east of Tampa. As a result the rest of the Jacknsonville and Orlando districts, which should be more competetive than they are, are safe for the Republicans.

  The 11th takes in crucial Democratic precincts in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Manattee counties. The results are tha the other Tampa-based districts are heavily Republican. The biggest winners are Bill Young, who represents the 10th. His district, while still competetive, is easier for the Republicans than it would otherwise be and incoming Republican Vern Buchanan. The 11th's small sliver that extends into Bradenton may very account  the difference between his margin of victory and Christine Jennings's (apparent) defeat. The rest of the SW Florida districts are heavily Republican.

  In South Florida the 17th and the 23rd basically ensure that the surrounding districts remain Republican. Although Tim Mahoney did win the 16th, because the 23rd takes in every black part of Broward, Palm Beach, and the interior parts of rural southern Florida, Mark Foley/Joe Negron's district was meant to be safe for a Republican. Kendrick Meek takes in all of the black parts of Dade County. That leaves the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ilena Ros-Lehtinen with safe Republican districts.

  Finally the 19th and the 20th districts take in all the retired Jewish voters. This left the 22nd, while still competetive, less friendly to the Democrats than it would normally be. Although Clay Shaw finally lost to Ron Klein this cycle, because Aventura and other Democratic-friendly parts of Dade County (Bal Harbour, Surfside, Sunny Isles) went to Debbie Wasserman-Schulz'sdistrict, this district stuck with him through 2002 and 2004.

  But all in all Florida's district maps are intended to maximize the number of Jewish and black Democrats. This, however, comes at the expense of many other districts, all of which (with the exception being the 16th and 22nd) elect conservative white Republicans. These heavily minority-majority districts serve to protect the numerous conservative Republican Congressmen who surround them.

  Quite possibly, if FL had a politically neutral map, you could make several more competetive districts. In North Florida you could probably create at least one neutral to perhaps even one Democratic friendly district. In Orlando you could probably make Ric Keller's district more competeive. Out in the Tampa area, if you return the 11th to being a purely Hillsborough County based district, you could probably make the 10th more competive. You could also make one or two more districts there competetive. In South Florida, if the black population were mixed into the conservative cuban or white districts, you could easily end up with 2-3 more competetive districts.

  What I just realized is that most of Florida's districts run north to south. By and large, with the exception of districts in the Panhandle area, most of the districts move north and south. Apparently the political views in the interior are different from those directly on the beach. So maybe if these districts extended east to west, instead of running north to south, they might be more friendly to the Democrats.

  Anyway the FL map is key evidence that majority-minority districts hurt Democrats. They result in districts very friendly to the GOP. While having more faces of color in Congress is a noble, if it results in more conservatives, I wonder if it really dodes help the caucses of minorities.

  by jiacinto on Sat Nov 11, 2006 at 10:39:56 PM PDT

  •  Great geographical rundown

    Minority-majority districts are a nice way of reducing minority power. It's always been this way. They create a few 70-30 Democratic districts so they can get several 55-45 GOP districts. It's almost as bad here as it is in Texas.

    by College Progressive on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 07:46:18 AM PDT

•  Feeney (FL-24) was Speaker of the Florida House

  ...not Majority Leader.  In other words, he was in control of ALL of the redistricting in Florida, and he drew his district personally FOR HIMSELF.
  Not only is Feeney an Abramoff associate, he is the only remaining Congressman to have traveled with Abramoff to St. Andrews golf resort in Scotland.  He is also on CREW's list of Most Corrupt Congressman, for the second year in a row.

  In the 2000 Presidential Debacle in Florida, Feeney was that guy who said he would re-select all of Florida's electors for Bush regardless of how the FL Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court ruled.  

  His list of petty and not-so-petty ethics violations is long and yet surprisingly, the big newspapers in Orlando -- including the Sentinel and the Weekly -- both essentially said, 'yeah, we know he's corrupt, but he brings home the bacon."

  Feeney is a millionaire on the Finance committee, and received the majority of his approx. $1.5 million in campaign donations from big business.  He is already talking about repealing key safeguards in Sarbanes-Oxley, implemented after the Enron and Worldcom scandals, ostensibly to lower the cost of new accounting procedures that protect indidual investors, but also because he will be able to gut protections for whistleblowers -- an aspect of the law that once protected his challenger, Democrat Clint Curtis.

  Curtis' campaign was true grassroots -- funded entirely by individuals, running on a platfom of reform and election integrity, with no corporate or PAC support.  Feeney mounted a costly smear campaign against Curtis, trying to marginalize him by labeling him 'crazy' and other such nonsense.  

  Curtis made a very strong showing, considering he was waging an uphill battle against a corrupt congressman with almost no money and zero support from the Dems.  He forced Feeney to spend money to campaign in mailers, tv and radio ads.  

  Feeney will be ringing the opening bell at the NYSE on Monday.  His Big Business buddies are wining and dining him, but we all know it is the average citizens of Florida (and the U.S.) who are gonna get f**ked.

  by txgirl on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 12:04:42 AM PDT

  •  It's seems like Feeney's ethical misdealings

    should be pursued aggressively. If he gets indicted while in office, it's quite possible we'll have a fresh new open seat to add to our majority.

    Thanks for the correction, too.

    by College Progressive on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 07:59:27 AM PDT

•  Districts like FL-16

  are very much areas that a Democrat can hold.  I would say that unless Mahoney is a very bad candidate, he has to be favored to hold this district in 2008.  And Klein is pretty close to safe.

  Incumbency is very powerful, except in years like 1994 and 2006.  

  by IhateBush on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 12:41:41 PM PDT

•  As far as FL-13

  if there are any major irregularities found or outright cheating, the Democratic House should refuse to seat Buchanan, and declare the seat vacant for a special election.

  by IhateBush on Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 12:42:53 PM PDT

•  A word about this islands of blue

  on the sea of red.  That's not really true.  The votes may have turned out that way, but registrations along I-4 tell a different story:

  I-4 Counties Voter Registrations:

  Pinellas          D 37%  R 39%
  Hillsborough      D 41%  R 34%
  Polk              D 42%  R 39%
  Osceola           D 40%  R 34%
  Orange            D 40%  R 35%
  Volusia           D 41%  R 36%

  The only one of these counties where the Rs have the edge in registration is Pinellas, and Pinellas went for Gore by 10,000 votes in 2000 and only lost to Bush by under 300 votes in 2004.

  What does this tell you?  It tells me that our ground game sucks.  Crist won every one of these counties and there is no way that should have happened.  This is the truly purple area of the state, and we better start figuring out how to get our voters to the polls here or we are going to keep losing statewide elections.

  by gatordem on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:24:55 PM PDT