(Read more of Ben Waxman's writing and analysis at
For Our Future.)
Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District is one of the most conservative in the entire state. President Bush's approval rating is still higher than 50% and Democrats have not won a race for state legislature in over 100 years. Republicans are the fully dominant party and often run in elections unopposed.
Despite these staggering political realities, Bob Casey still defeated Rick Santorum by more than 1,000 votes. According to the Altoona Daily Mirror, the final tally was 182,961 to 181,341. How did this happen?
Casey did not win this region through enthusiastic campaigning. I spent the last few weeks before the election working full-time on a state senate campaign and there was very little communication with anyone from the Casey camp. It was difficult to get Casey yard signs, buttons, or literature. Forget about actually seeing the candidate. Unless you counted the endless commercials on cable, Casey was never seen in our area. Rural voters seemed to be pretty much abandoned by the Casey campaign.
Still, Casey managed to defeat Santorum outright in vote totals. This surprising upset contains numerous lessons for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. Rural voters do not always vote Republican. They can be won over through a mixture of strategic campaigning and economic populism. If Democrats revitalize our party in rural Pennsylvania, we can dominate future statewide elections.
It is fairly easy to reach rural voters through the mass media. This is an extremely cheap television market. Local campaigns can often afford to run numerous commercials on both television and radio before the election. Since there are less media outlets, campaigns can be sure that their message will reach prospective voters.
Campaigns should actually focus their communication strategies on earned media in rural markets. Voters are more likely to trust neutral articles than nakedly partisian commercials on television. Small newspapers are eager to cover events with major political candidates. A quick swing through rural regions before Election Day could produce dozens of positive stories in local newspapers. One of the statewide campaigns may have had a plan to reach out to small town newspapers, but if there was we never saw it.
There are plenty of issues to motivate people in rural areas. The poverty rate in the 9th District is more than a percentage point higher than the Pennsylvania average. The average annual wage is $10,000 less than the Pennsylvania mean. 24 percent of the population has had some college education compared to the figure of 43 percent statewide. Democrats should aggressively push for legislation that will deal with the economic and social crisis in rural Pennsylvania.
Democrats already have a model for success. Rep. Mark Cohen's legislation to raise the minimum wage sparked a statewide campaign. A coalition of community organizations, labor unions, and responsible business owners pressured the legislature to do the right thing for low-wage workers. I probably talked to thousands of voters before the election and all of them supported the increase. Democrats should launch similar campaigns around healthcare, education and other popular social causes.
In order to pursue such a campaign, Democrats need to provide resources to local party activists. It's important for Democrats to have strong advocates in small communities where everyone knows everyone else. People in small towns and rural areas are more trustful of people they know personally, so statewide campaigns need to be sure to have local coordinators. Democrats in Pennsylvania need a plan to revitalize local party organizations in rural areas.
Right now, many people perceive the Democratic Party as the party of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Fair or not, Democrats must counter this idea by actually communicating with rural voters. DNC chair Howard Dean says that asking people for their vote is a sign of respect. I hope that the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania will remember this fact and invest in revitalizing our party in rural areas.