by
Larry C Johnson (
bio ||
blog)
One critical dilemma we confront in Iraq is the burden of our status as the Superpower. All people in the region--Sunnis, Shia, Kurds, and Persians--assume that we have a secret plan that we are pursuing unilaterally. The majority of these folks cannot accept that the sectarian violence unleashed in Iraq is a consequence of U.S. incompetence. They assume that the rising sectarian violence is something we want because we are a Superpower. By virtue of our status as a Superpower it is inconceivable that we would allow such violence unless it suited our "hidden" purposes.
The fact that Baghdad still suffers from chronic shortages of electricity, polluted water, broken sewers, and incompetent police is viewed by many in the region as prima facie evidence that we are deliberately and purposefully dismantling every vestige of what was the most secular Arab state in the Middle East. How could it be otherwise? We are a Superpower and a superpower, like any super hero, can do anything it wants.
The picture gets more complicated when viewed thru the sectarian lens of the various groups.
The Iraqi Sunnis by and large believe we are working in concert with the Shia to destroy the Sunni people. The notion that the Shia are the majority of the population is irrelevant. As the Sunni know, the Shia are incapable of governing or organizing without the support and direction of the Superpower.
The Shia keep waiting for the other shoe to drop because they know, in their heart of hearts, that we do not want them to control Iraq. They know we have designated their Iranian benefactors as part of the Axis of Evil and they read and hear news reports that the United States, perhaps with Israel acting as proxy, is going to attack Iran. Remember, we are the Superpower. Nothing happens, good or bad, without us pulling the strings behind the scenes.
The United States officials know who are the key actors among the Iraqi Sunni and Shia. The situation may be too far gone to salvage anything resembling victory, but we must try. The following must be our short to middle term objectives:
- We must publicly declare we have no intention to occupy Iraq and should renounce any claim to maintain permanent bases in Iraq with the following exceptions:
We will maintain one base in Baghdad, which will serve as the principle location for training a genuinely integrated Iraqi military. We must try to form a force that is not organized by geographic or sectarian loyalties. We must commit to support that force in its operations to make clear that it is not going to favor one religious faction over another. We may also want to consider having one base within each of the major ethnic regions of Iraq. However, our ultimate objective to disengage militaryily must be made clear to all sides.
- We must restore public services in Baghdad to pre-war levels. Electricity must be available to all of Baghdad's residents 24-7. They must have clean water and functioning sewage systems. We must use whatever resources are required to accomplish these tasks. If we do so we can begin to counter the widespread belief that we are actually trying to impoverish the people of Iraq.
- We must transfer the power now exercised in Iraq by the U.S. Ambassador and U.S. troops to a recognized international authority. The United States cannot and should not be the face of power in Iraq. If we are then we will also bear the blame for allowing the sectarian strife to escalate and for permitting social and sanitary infrastructure to collapse.
- We must pursue public diplomacy with both Syria and Iran. Saber rattling has gotten us nowhere. We are not in a position to destroy or occupy either of those countries. A crazy fantasy is not a substitute for pragmatic policy.
The bottom line for us is that our use of military force is not going to win us the hearts and minds of the various Iraqi sects. Our current tactics are aggravating longstanding grudges and vendettas and creating new enemies in the process.
The neocons, and their ilk, continue to rattle sabers and beat their chest like an impotent gorilla. But their threats are empty. They are not pressing their sons and daughters to enlist in their "glorious 21st century" crusade. They want to stay safe at home in the United States and encourage the sons and daughters of other folks to make this ultimate sacrifice.
The choices we make in the coming months will help determine whether or not we are worthy of the moniker, "Superpower". We cannot quell the sectarian civil war overnight. But, we must try to show that we can improve the delivery of public services to the Iraqi people on a non-sectarian basis. If we can do that we can help erase the impression that our hidden plan is to humiliate and occupy the Arab people. Otherwise we will continue to be caught in the middle of a civil war that we are unable stop. That's not super.