A National Party No More
Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 07:10:04 AM PDT
Yeah, I'm talking about the Republicans, and it does my heart good to know that Zell Miller is still around to see his new friends in the GOP take it in the neck.
At any rate, one of the most notable aspects of the midterm elections is that the Republicans lost a lot of seats in what we might call the Old North: the states that made up the Union during the Civil War. It isn't obvious looking at the usual maps, because a lot of those districts are too small to see clearly. So, as an aid to clarity, I've created a series of charts showing what really happened on Election Day 2006.
(charts and analysis below the fold)
The first sequence shows the Northeast: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and the six New England states. Between them, they've got 83 House seats. In the 109th Congress, the seats looked like this (and I'm counting Bernie Sanders of Vermont as a Democrat, since he caucuses with them):
Here's the breakdown of House seats per state:
Party D R Total
ME 2 0 2
NH 0 2 2
VT 1 0 1
MA 10 0 10
RI 2 0 2
CT 2 3 5
NY 20 9 29
PA 7 12 19
NJ 7 6 13
Total 51 32 83
The Dems have a 3 to 2 edge over the GOP.
Election Day 2006 sees a stunning 11 seats shift from the Republicans to the Democrats, and an even more stunning zero seats shift from the Democrats to the Republicans, the first time that's happened in . . . well, a gosh darned long time, anyway:
Which leaves the Northeast looking like this in the upcoming 110th Congress:
Here's the new breakdown of House seats per state:
Party D R Total
ME 2 0 2
NH 2 0 2
VT 1 0 1
MA 10 0 10
RI 2 0 2
CT 4 1 5
NY 23 6 29
PA 11 8 19
NJ 7 6 13
Total 62 21 83
Yes, that's right, the Democrats now outnumber the Republicans by nearly three to one. Also, a glance at the state delegations reveals a startling fact: before, the Dems outnumbered the GOP in six of the nine state delegations. Now they outnumber them in all nine! The Democrats thoroughly dominate the Northeast.
Now we look at the Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Between them, they've got 82 House seats. Here's how things looked in the 109th Congress:
Party D R Total
OH 6 12 18
MI 6 9 15
IN 2 7 9
IL 10 9 19
WI 4 4 8
MN 4 4 8
IA 1 4 5
Total 33 49 82
Now, it's the GOP that outnumbers the Dems by roughly 3 to 2.
Election Day 2006 sees 8 seats shift from the Republicans to the Democrats, and, again, an amazing zero seats shift from the Democrats to the Republicans:
Which leaves the Midwest looking like this in the upcoming 110th Congress:
Here's the new breakdown of House seats per state:
Party D R Total
OH 7 11 18
MI 6 9 15
IN 5 4 9
IL 10 9 19
WI 5 3 8
MN 5 3 8
IA 3 2 5
Total 41 41 82
Yup, the Dems have erased the GOP's 3 to 2 edge, and brought the numbers exactly even. A look at the relative numbers in the state delegations is even more startling: before, the GOP had a majority in four of the seven states, and parity in two more, with the Dems having a majority in only one. Now, the Dems have a majority in five of the seven state delegations. The Democrats now dominate the Midwest too.
The reason for the GOP's fall isn't hard to see. Nixon's Southern Strategy of attracting Dixiecrats to the GOP was going full blast in the '80s and '90s, giving the GOP a temporary majority in Congress. The trouble with the Dixiecrats, though, is that they don't like to share. Any party that includes the Dixiecrats is going to be dominated by the Dixiecrats. As the Dixiecrats have flooded into the GOP, the GOP has swerved to the right, and now it is paying the price as voters outside the South abandon their party for the Democrats.
A final thought to ponder: the Abramoff investigation is still ongoing, along with the Foley investigation, and who knows how many other investigations. The GOP is thoroughly corrupt, and we can expect more revelations, more investigations, more indictments, more convictions, more resignations, and more special elections. The makeup of the 110th Congress is likely to remain in flux for the next year at least, and the changes are almost certainly going to go in the Democrats' favor. The GOP is in retreat, and it's going to remain in retreat for the foreseeable future. In the end, the GOP is going to find that Nixon's Southern Strategy was a poison pill, and they're going to find themselves reduced to a regional party, confined to the South, and in a state of permanent minority.
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