McCain can be defeated in 2008. Here's how.
Keeping in mind that two years is a lifetime in politics, and that nothing can be predicted with certainty, we can at this point say that John McCain will most likely be the Republican nominee for president in 2008. The thought of facing him in a general election causes many Democrats to soil themselves because he is one of the most popular politicians in the country, if not the most popular. Because he has cultivated an image as a social moderate, economic conservative, and independently-minded Republican, many consider a general election race against McCain to be unwinnable.
The truth is, however, that McCain has his weaknesses and faults just like any other candidate. If these weaknesses are exploited correctly, and if the Democratic candidate has it within him or herself to withstand the barrage coming from the other side, McCain can be defeated. Let's look at how.
1. Highlight his compromised principles: A lot of hay has been made by Republicans about Gore's changed stance on this or Kerry's flip-flop on that. Any time the tiniest hint of a shift of opinion over the course of time is perceived, they are somehow able to make it into the defining trait of that candidate. McCain's flip-flops are far more glaring than many of the ones used against Gore and Kerry, and there's no reason they won't be effective once brought to light. A couple of examples:
- His caving to Bush on the detainee bill: McCain made his opposition to torture a centerpiece of his image, but by signing on to Bush's bill, he signed away his credibility. The Democratic candidate must trumpet the fact that McCain allowed habeas corpus to be suspended at presidential will. Rather than allowing McCain to shield himself with his own former POW status, make that part of the question, as in "How could you support such a bill, having endured what you have endured?"
- His dissing-then-kissing of religious fanatics: Falwell may rally the GOP base, but he does not play well with mainstream America. Run as much video contrasting McCain shaking hands with Falwell and Pat Robertson with video of McCain calling the two of them "the agents of intolerance." The assertion of hypocrisy is a great message-defuser, so wield it often.
- His unabashed embracing of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, after Bush inexcusably tore him apart in the 2000 primaries. Point out how he let Bush push him around, all to gain favor with the extreme base of the GOP. (Depending on the political climate, point out how he also betrayed his friend John Kerry, failing to come to his defense in the aftermath of the infamous botched joke, and instead pretending to believe an interpretation he clearly knew was false. All that after Kerry had offered him a place on the presidential ticket!) On both of these last two points, McCain says there's no point in "holding grudges," but it's not about grudges. The issue should be McCain's kowtowing to those who denigrate everything he purports to stand for.
2. Paint him as a right wing extremist: Sounds tough, doesn't it? Actually, McCain's making that easier and easier. In the general election, he will play his so-called independence hard, but that should not stop his opponent from pointing out the aforementioned courting of religious zealots. Also point out his support for the teaching of intelligent design in public schools' science classes, his opposition to legal abortion, and his support of the nominations of Samuel Alito and John Bolton. Of course, do everything you can to tie him to the Iraq war. This kind of thing is important if one is to make sure he doesn't make strong inroads into states like California and New York.
3. Turn him into Bob Dole: The smartest thing Bill Clinton did for his 1996 reelection campaign was to come out of the gates telling people what to think of Bob Dole. In 2008, all of the serious Democratic contenders, not having the benefit of already being in office, have to start NOW doing the same thing, using most of the same imagery. Bob Dole was "too old" and out of touch, well, for the purposes of this campaign, so is John McCain. Bob Dole was "too extreme", so is John McCain. Bob Dole was essentially the same person as the then-reviled Newt Gingrich. John McCain, it follows, is one and the same as George W. Bush. Find all the video of them embracing and shaking hands as you can, and all the pro-Bush sound bites. Dole and Newt gave us the government shutdown. Bush and McCain gave us the Iraq war.
4. Be nicer to him than he will be to you: McCain will assume he can stomp whoever the Democratic nominee is, and will show an air of superiority-bordering-on-contempt. His opponent must never be thrown by this. When together in public at debates and the like, always praise his heroism in Vietnam and his patriotism (as it is indeed praise-worthy), along with his campaign finance reform agenda, and then contrast that with his recent cavings and failings. Show folks he's wrong after being right for so long, always with a smile, and an appreciation for the Old McCain of yore. Lament its passing. (Don't attack the McCain-Feingold bill, but happily allow reporters and moderators pick it apart and re-examine it for its flaws. Support a vague, improved version.)
5. Have a spine: If Gore and Kerry taught us anything, it's that the Democrats need a candidate who does not let the other guy get into his or her head. Gore and Kerry agonized over responses and non-responses to every little attack and assertion made about them, and lord, it showed. In 2008, the Democratic nominee must raise his shields and endure. While the key will be painting his image before he can paint yours, conversely, his opponent must not be visibly effected (or even actually effected) by McCain's attempts to define him or her.
This is a goal within reach. All the Democratic nominee has to do is win all the states that Kerry won, plus Ohio or Florida. That's it. Plus, the electorate is sick of Republicans right now, and that won't get much better for them over the next two years. Of course, McCain will be extremely tough. He will appeal to voters in the ideological center, which could potentially put into play states like New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, among others. This is why the campaign against him has to begin now, before there is even a nominee. If this is done right, it could jeopardize his nomination altogether, which would only be a bonus, as there is no one else in the GOP field who is as utterly electable. Regardless, time is of the essence.
Tell me, Hillary, Joe, Evan, Bill, Chris, Barack, Tom, Wesley, and you two Johns: are you serious about winning?
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- qshio