Could TN-01 become competitive?

Given that this seat won't be an open seat until David Davis retires (he's 47, so it might be awhile, unless he runs for a higher office), I wondered if TN-01, that bastion of redness that hasn't elected a democrat to congress since 1878, would have been competitive had the DCCC (or the Tennessee democratic party, as unorganized as they are) had found and attempted to fund a candidate in the 1st district.

Of course, I realize that the DCCC usually doesn't come in unless a candidate shows they can fundraise themselves, but part of the problem with TN-01 is that everyone assumes that the republican is going to win, so even if it is an open seat with a good democratic candidate, no one is going to spend money on what they see as a lost cause race.

However, looking at the numbers, was it really a lost cause race?

Rick Trent, the democratic candidate for TN-01 in 2006 picked up 65,458 votes - 37% (Davis got 61%).  This may not sound much until you realize that he was outspent $434,000 to $63,000 (with almost 2/3 of that money coming from Trent himself).

This is better than the last open seat election here when democrat Kay C. Smith only got 32% against Bill Jenkin's 65% in 1996.

In what I find shocking, Trent actually won one of the counties.  Remember, this is a district where republicans are assumed to win, where the republican was a state senator representative and the democrat was a no-name city councilman who barely got his name out.  Here is the county breakdown:

Carter County
Davis - 66%
Trent - 32%

Cocke County
Davis - 55%
Trent - 42%

Greene County
Davis - 51%
Trent - 47%

Hancock County (voted for Corker 60-38)
Trent - 50%
Davis - 49%

Hamblen County (Trent's home county)
Davis - 51%
Trent - 47%

Hawkins County
Davis - 57%
Trent - 41%

Jefferson County
Davis - 58%
Trent - 39%

Johnson County
Davis - 65%
Trent - 32%

Sevier County
Davis - 63%
Trent - 35%

Sullivan County (biggest county in the district)
Davis - 62%
Trent - 36%

Unicoi County
Davis - 68%
Trent - 31%

Washington County (Davis' home county)
Davis - 64%
Trent - 34%

Would this be a difficult district to win? Yes.  However, if we can find a candidate who is willing to run (hello Nathan Vaughn?), and that people are willing to put financial backing into, I think we could make the republicans break out a sweat here.  The best time to defeat an incumbent is in his first time up for re-election.  It would be harder to make competitive than if it were an open seat, but I wonder if anyone will actually consider giving it a shot.

•  mojo jarjo

  I thought, when I looked at the results for this race, that it was closer than normal.  Yes it was an open seat, but my hunch was right - this race was 8% closer than even the last open seat election in 1996, and there I believe the democratic candidate was even better funded than this one.

  by FleetAdmiralJ on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 07:12:59 AM PDT

  •  Have you also thought about

    A system wide challenge in Greene, Hancock, and Hamblen? Taking the volunteer and voter id lists and working on stealing some local offices in the off year elections, and building a political base? Taking over these three relatively small counties, with an aggressive voter id and GOTV effort could be very good, indeed.

    by yashko on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 08:40:59 AM PDT

•  Nice analysis

  Gosh, are you looking at every district in the country this closely?  

  Actually, what this last election cycle proves more than anything else, is that if you put up a candidate, you have a chance to win.  If you fund them, you have even more of a chance.  If the candidate is attractive/charismatic, you can pull an "upset."  (See McNerney beating Pombo in CA11.)  

  The roots aren't so deep for Republicans in the South that it couldn't be turned around.  Your musing is well taken.  And there must be other districts out there in similar shape...

  by recontext on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 07:46:17 AM PDT

  •  na

    TN-01 is where I used to live before I moved in June, so I have a certain attachment to it, and it has driven me nuts that the people there haven't elected a democrat since the 1800s

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 07:47:42 AM PDT

•  I tell you what Admiral

  I'd definitely be willing to roll up my sleeves for the effort. East Tennessee needs our boots on the ground. If we could get a College Democrats organization going at Knoxville College, involve their student government and local NAACP, they could reach out into the African American community and register potential voters. That's just one idea.

  by niteskolar on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 08:02:34 AM PDT

•  Here's the problem, Fleet......

  Those 30%-to-40% who always vote for the Dem nominee are the diehards who will vote for the Dem simply because they see one on the ballot.  I bet a majority of Trent's voters voted for him after having first heard of him only upon seeing his name, identified as the Democrat, on the actual ballot.

  There is a diminishing marginal return from spending money, with the nominal filing fee getting the biggest mathematical return because you get the hardcore base voters just by being on the ballot.  Then the return declines with every dollar.  The problem is that the decline in return for a Dem is real fast in a district like TN-01, with a ceiling certainly sub-50% and perhaps no better than 40%-to-45% even in the best of circumstances absent scandal as with the DeLay seat.  So the fact Trent or someone else pulls in 30%-plus is false encouragement.

  Hate to rain on your parade, but some of us are unfortunate enough to live or have lived in an unwinnable seat for a Dem.

  by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 08:12:17 AM PDT

  •  not really

    the "always vote for a dem" percent in east tennessee is more like between 20 and 25%.  Jenkins' opponent in 2004 got 25% I believe (and I think he got more money, and more press, than this guy did)

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 08:37:31 AM PDT

  •  What it takes is

    A grass roots candidate who starts working early, a good national environment, and a couple of good local issues and/or scandal. Sounds like we have two out of three here.

    Even with two out of three, you are missing the real "return" on these campaigns. They do so much else:

    1. They take away money from other GOP candidates, who could use it close elections;

    2. They energize local Democrats, who are then encouraged to challenge for other local offices which might have been considered off limits; and

    3. Every once and a while, they win.

    by yashko on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 08:38:01 AM PDT

    •  More good things

      4. Competitive races build srong local organizations.

         If your county gets moved into another district after
         the 2010 Census, you don't want to start from zero.

      5. Competitive races contribute to the national total.

         We saw already that Democrats outpolled R's by,
         what was it, 5 million votes in the total of all the
         Senate races? I guess the comparable House figure
         is not in because so many races are still in recount.
         But when the tally is completed, we want the maximum
         number of Democratic vote from every House district,
         so that the national total shows what it should:
         Complete repudiation of the Bush agenda, by the millions.

      by Woody on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 11:48:16 AM PDT

•  TN-1

  The Northeast corner of TN has been a Republican strongholds since the Civil War when the residents of the area were staunch supporters of the Union over the Confederacy.  The allegiance to the Republican party has persisted despite the fact that, over the years, the area developed the type of manufacturing economy that produced both unions and Democrats in other parts of the country.

  Still, while the area has yet to elect a Democrat to Congress in over 120 years it was carried by both Al Gore and Jim Sasser in their winning Senate bids (although granted that was against token opposition).  It should also be noted that, traditionally speaking, mountain Republicans are of a different breed -- more libertarian on social issues and more than willing to support programs designed to help those in need than the type of Republican we think of today.  Think more of former US Senator Howard Baker and less of soon to be former US Senator Bill Frist and you get the idea.

  It should also be noted that the stronger than might be expected showing by a Democrat here in 2006 (and, if I recall my spot checking from last week Harold Ford didn't do too badly in the district for a Democrat) came in both a year when no incumbent was running and in one that was a very bad year for Republicans overall.  Given the nature of this district I would say that Davis has this seat as long as he wants it, unless he gets involved in some sort of scandal.  Still, I'm all for showing Democrats a little love in places where they are so outnumbered and where their economic polices are more in tune with the people there, particularly as the Republican party drifts further away from their roots.  Just keep in mind when you are dealing with such long held ancestral party loyalties the hill to clim is very, very steep.

  by RoIn on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 09:05:22 AM PDT

  •  Fraying loyalties

    The fading ancestral loyalties of moderate R's in Kansas,
    Montana, Nebraska, and elsewhere might portend changes
    even in East Tennessee.

    The R voters there do have an honorable heritage from the
    opposition to secession, and loyalty to the party of Lincoln.
    But that grand old party has been hijacked by hate groups
    and the most corrupt bunch of politicos in our lifetime.

    The decent R's in this area, if they are paying any attention
    at all, must be appalled, and hoping it will soon pass.
    If this R nightmare does not pass, then they too will be ready
    to leave the party of hate, hypocracy, and corruption.

    by Woody on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 11:41:09 AM PDT

•  DNC funded organizer

  Dean's 50-state strategy begins in places like TN-01.  As a former resident of the district (I left when I graduated high school), I think that recruited a capable organizer from the area is more beneficial than dropping one in from somewhere else.

  The people will listen to neighbors and reason.  A "Yankee" from Chicago or New York will not attract people.  This should be targeted for 2010, because that is how long it will take to get people involved.

  by Italian Sandwich on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 02:31:00 PM PDT

•  Nathan Vaughn

  ...I think it may be asking too much for the voters of Tennessee's First District to elect a black man.  This is a reality that even white liberals in the area would acknowledge.

  by Italian Sandwich on Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 02:34:09 PM PDT