This is the first installment in my series of those pickup oppertunities in 2008 that don't look super promising. Second tier, if you will. Tonight, we'll focus on Oklahoma where Jim "global warming is a hoax" Inhofe is as vulnerable as he's ever been.
Also, I'm an Oklahoman so I offer somewhat of an insider's perspective on Inhofe. Anywho, more below...
Although there was some speculation that he might retire, I've seen Inhofe go all over the media saying he looks forward to regaining his leadership poisitions in 2008. I think it would take a major scandal to force Inhofe into retirement.
The latest Survey USA approval poll gives Inhofe a net approval with 46% approve to 41% disapprove. Last month, however, Inhofe had a net dissapproval of 9% with 40% approving to 49% dissapproving. Inhofe also had the 6th highest net disapproval of any Senator in the country and Oklahoma is gnerally pretty friendly to politicans' approval numbers.
Compare this with our freshman Senator, Tom Coburn, who's enjoying a net approval of 12 points this month (50% approve to 38% dissapprove). Although Coburn and Inhofe are total wingnuts, Coburn has an anti-establishment streak in him that Okies love. Say what you want about Coburn but he's no crony and he's not afraid to be a headache for the Republican leadership, especially on spending. Still, most of Coburn's critisisms of his party come from the right and he's a batshit crazy moron. But nonetheless, he's succeeded in establishing an independent image that makes him one of the most successful politicans of recent time in Oklahoma.
Inhofe, on the other hand, is a total crony and Coburn's independence only intensifies Inhofe's cronyism. Inhofe's low approvals are due to the fact that us Okies see him for what he really is: part of a Washington elite that's out of touch.
In just about any other state, we'd run against Inhofe's insanely conservative voting record. Focusing on his embaressing denial of global warming and his disguting trivialization of the Abu Gharib scandal with his notorious proclamation of "I'm outraged by the outrage" won't be enough. In order to send him packing, we have to effectively portray him as a Washingtonian before an Oklahoman. In other words, a campaign against Inhofe will also have to be a campaign against D.C. And since we now have control of both chambers, that will be much harder to do.
The Candidates (In order of strength):
Brad Henry (current Dem governor of Oklahoma): The fifth most popular governor in the country who just got re-elected with nearly 67% of the vote in one of the reddest states in the country? Of course, Henry is our dream candidate. At this point, however, I find it unlikely that he would run.
Most importantly, Henry would be in the middle of his second term as governor. He just finnshed a re-election campaign for governor and the last thing he probably wants to do right now is start prepearing for another one. Especially considering he has three young daughters. Furthermore, Henry clearly loves his homestate and loves living in it.
Nonetheless, there are still plenty of reasons for optemism. After this term, Henry is term limitted and it would be pretty hard for him to get back into politics. He's from Shawnee, Oklahoma, which is in a safe Republican district currently represented by Henry's 06 ® opponent, Ernest Istook (who was dumb enough to give up a prized house seat for a hopeless run at defeating Henry). His chances against Coburn in 2010 wouldn't be nearly as good considering Coburn is not nearly as weak as Inhofe and a governor's popularity is likely to wane significantly after leaving office.
A senate seat would gurantee a continued political future for Henry and if he wants this, he will run against Inhofe. I'd say its more likely that Henry stays away from Inhofe's seat but a lot can change between now and 08.
Drew Edmonson: Drew is our Great Attorney general who's been around for quite awhile. Prior to Henry's election in 02, he was the most popular Democrat in the state and today, he probably only ranks behind Henry. He was instrumental in combating this state's horrible meth problems a few years ago and our antimeth problem has served as a model for the nation. He's spent much of the last few months going after big poultry in Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma. Big poultry farmers, according to Edmonson and his supporters, have been polluting Oklahoma's rivers with hazardous waste materials and I tend to agree with the action Edmonson and the Attorney Generals office have taken. Obviously, it didn't hurt him at all on the 7th as he was re-elected in another landslide.
Edmonson, however, is rarely mentioned as a contender for anything beyond Attorney General. Why? I have no idea. For someone who's been re-elected as Attorney General since 1994, I would think that his name would get thrown around more than it is for a more prestigious office.
If Edmonson has ambitions beyond Attorney General, it's possible that he is holding out until Henry's term expires in 2010. Otherwise, definitely count him in for a run against Inhofe. With his controversial action against big poultry and the fact that he's never mentioned as a contender for higher office, I'd say an Edmonson candidacy is unlikely.
Dan Boren: So what if Henry and Edmonson stay away from Inhofe (very likely to happen)? I hate to say it, but our third strongest contender at this point is the abysmal so called Democratic congressman, Dan Boren. Trust me, I am the anti-progressive purist. I hate purity trolls with a passion and there's no one who gets under my skin more than someone who cares more about giving Chuck Schumer a primary than actually beating Republicans.
Dan Boren, however, is in a league of his own. His recent talk of challanging Pelosi for speaker was the last straw for me. Although he eventually decided that he'd vote for her (something that we should never have to worry about when dealing with our own), the mere fact that he'd suggest something so ridiculous is unacceptable.
Boren represents a pretty poulist, working class, blue collar district. While most of Oklahoma went for Wes Clark and John Kerry, most of Boren's district went for John Edwards'populist message. Boren reprsents "Little Dixie," which is this state's Democratic stronghold. Most people in Little Dixie descend from settlers who migrated from the deep south who were hardcore Democrats back in the day. Although the district is gradually getting more Republican beyond local and statewide offices, it's still very friendly Democratic territory and Boren could do much better, especially on economic issues.
My tirade against Boren's oppertunistic conservatism, however, is irrelvant. My only litmus test for Inhofe's opponent is that he votes for Harry reid to be majority leader and that he's more progressive than what we have now (pretty damned hard to fail on that one). The problem with Boren is that he's weak. By weak, I basically mean that he's just a downright sucky candidate. He has absolutely zero charisma. He's a horrible public speaker who can't articulate public policy for his life. Inhofe would destroy little Danny in the debates. I'll just put it this way: He's almost as bad as Bush. No, I'm not exagerating at all. He really does suck.
Furthermore, he has virtually no political experience. He barley spent any time at all in the Oklhoma legislature before moving on up to Washington and he has no experience in waging a tough campaign.
The only advantage Boren carries is his last name. His father, David Boren, was a popular Senator who held Inhofe's until he stepped down in 1994. Currently, the elder Boren is the very well liked President of the University of Oklahoma. Although he was quite conservative, David Boren was a respectable Senator who was not afraid to vote his conscience. In 1990, he suprised everyone when he bucked his moderate allies and voted against the Gulf War. Dan Boren is not his father but hopefully, if he is the nominee, people will think he is. If they do, he might have a chance.
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To conclude, I think Boren is unfortunately very likely to go after Inhofe's seat. A backbencher in the state legilture would almost be a stronger candidate than Boren. AS far as the three candidates I examined in this diary I think Edmonson is by far the least likely to run. Henry is somewhere in between Boren and Edmonson.
A wild card to always consider is 04 Senate nominee, Brad Carson. Coburn defeated Brad by a pretty hefty margin but I think he's almost guranteed to do better if he runs in 2008. I think Henry and Edmonson are more elecatble but Carson is still a better challanger than Boren.