Like the adage, "It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the vote," it's also who draws the maps. If we want the most favorable redistricting environment possible, we have to make sure we have the right people in place before 2010. Just a swing of a few state legislative bodies can be the difference of up to 15 additional Congressional seats.
Of course some may argue that we should take the high road and not play the same "games" as the Republicans, that independent non-partisan commissions should decide all redistricting. Of course, that would be the long-term goal, but until then, we have to make sure we're not put at a disadvantage. At a bare minimum, we should correct the Republican shenanigans in places like MI, FL, TX and PA. Plus. the more state legislative members we have, the deeper our bench is for future Congressional races.
Below the fold is a grid chock full of basic info and numbers. Hopefully we can put our brains together and come up with our top takeover targets, including specific races to watch. Please check it out...
According to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, of the 50 states, 34 state legislatures control Congressional redistricting, one is controlled by the Governor, another is controlled by an independent services bureau and 14 are controlled by a commission. For our purposes, I removed the ones where redistricting doesn't come into play since they only have one Congressional District (AK, DE, MT, ND, SD, VT, WY). I have also included some of the upcoming gubernatorial races since, in some states, they have a say in approving new maps. The remaining states are organized into four tiers, based off priorities. Have at it.
TIER ONE consists of states currently projected by the U.S. Census Bureau to either gain or lose seats in 2010. Most of the predictions reflect a migration of voters from blue states in New England and the Midwest to the South and West. Democrats will need to maintain momentum in places like AZ, CA and NV to offset Republican gains in FL, GA and TX. A few questions emerge. Will Republican-controlled state legislatures in TX and GA, both of whom just went through mid-decade redistricting, be able to squeeze out any more Republican districts? Has the lopsided FL delegation also reached an unsustainable level of gerrymandering? Can CA and IL push their state legislators to be a little more aggressive? And can the Democrats in LA, who control both chambers, create a map that produces a more Democratic-leaning delegation? TOP TARGETS: NY-State Senate, NV-State Senate, AZ-State House
TIER ONE (15) 2006 2010 GOV ST. SEN. ST. HOUSE DECIDER
Arizona (8) 4 D / 4 R +1 D 12 D / 18 R 28 D / 32 R Commission
California (53) 34 D / 19 R +1 R 25 D / 15 R 48 D / 32 R Legislature
Florida (25) 9 D / 16 R * +2 R 41 D / 79 R 14 D / 26 R Legislature
Georgia (13) 6 D / 7 R +1 R 22 D / 34 R 74 D / 106 R Legislature
Illinois (19) 10 D / 9 R -1 D 37 D / 22 R 66 D / 52 R Legislature
Iowa (5) 3 D / 2 R -1 D 30 D / 20 R 54 D / 45 R Leg. Service Bureau
Louisiana (7) 2 D / 5 R -1 D ('07) 24 D / 15 R 62 D / 41 R Legislature
Mass. (10) 10 D / 0 R -1 D 35 D / 5 R 141 D / 19 R Legislature
Missouri (9) 4 D / 5 R -1 R ('08) 13 D / 21 R 71 D / 92 R Legislature
Nevada (3) 1 D / 2 R +1 R 10 D / 11 R 27 D / 15 R Legislature
New York (29) 23 D / 6 R -2 D 28 D / 34 R 105 D / 45 R Legislature
Ohio (18) 7 D / 11 R -2 D 12 D / 21 R 46 D / 53 R Commission
Penn. (19) 11 D / 8 R -1 D 21 D / 29 R 101 D / 101 R Commission
Texas (32) 12 D / 20 R +3 R 11 D / 20 R 69 D / 81 R Legislature
Utah (3) 1 D / 2 R +1 R ('08) 8 D / 21 R 19 D / 56 R Legislature
(*) - This reflects the current results of Buchanen over Jennings.
TIER TWO are the soft blue states (or at least have shown some recent blue tendencies) that we need to strengthen our position. Though none of these states are currently predicted to gain or lose seats, things could change in this group. For instance, in 2000, North Carolina was predicted to gain only one additional seat, but their surprisingly strong growth rate allowed them to inch ahead of Utah for a second. Of particular interest are Michigan whose Democratic Congressional delegation was gutted last time around and CO and IN where Democrats where able to flip the delegations. In terms of defense, special attention should be paid to TN. Republicans have a good shot of increasing their numbers there. TOP TARGETS: MI-State Senate, VA-State Senate, WI-State House
TIER TWO (9) 2006 GOV ST. SEN. ST. HOUSE DECIDER
Colorado (7) 4 D / 3 R D 20 D / 15 R 39 D / 26 R Commission
Indiana (9) 5 D / 4 R R ('08) 17 D / 33 R 51 D / 49 R Legislature
Michigan (15) 6 D / 9 R D 17 D / 21 R 58 D / 52 R Legislature
Minnesota (8) 5 D / 3 R R 44 D / 23 R 85 D / 49 R Legislature
New Mexico (3) 1 D / 2 R D 24 D / 18 R 42 D / 28 R Legislature
No. Carol. (13) 7 D / 6 R * D ('08) 31 D / 19 R * 68 D / 52 R Legislature
Tennessee (9) 5 D / 4 R D 16 D / 17 R 53 D / 46 R Legislature
Virginia (11) 3 D / 8 R D ('09) 17 D / 23 R 40 D / 57 R * Legislature
Wisconsin (8) 5 D / 3 R D 18 D / 15 R 46 D / 53 R Legislature
(*) - Virginia has three independents in the House. This reflects the current results of Hayes over Kissell.
TIER THREE are a batch of states who have been voting red in the Presidential cycle. Most already have Republican-skewing Congressional delegates, however there are some bright spots. For instance AL and MS both have Democratic-controlled legislatures and Kansas now has a split Congresssional delegation. Is it possible to grab seats in ID and NE next time? Can we maintain our parity in MS? Can we bring some balance to AL and OK? TOP TARGETS: KY-State Senate, OK-State House, SC-State Senate
TIER THREE (8) 2006 GOV ST. SEN. ST. HOUSE DECIDER
Alabama (7) 2 D / 5 R R 23 D / 12 R 62 D / 43 R Legislature
Idaho (2) 0 D / 2 R R 7 D / 28 R 19 D / 51 R Commission
Kansas (4) 2 D / 2 R D 10 D / 30 R 47 D / 78 R Legislature
Kentucky (6) 2 D / 4 R R ('08) 16 D / 21 R 61 D / 39 R Legislature
Mississippi (4) 2 D / 2 R R ('07) 27 D / 23 R 74 D / 46 R Legislature
Nebraska (3) 0 D / 3 R R -- D / -- R -- D / -- R Legislature
Oklahoma (5) 1 D / 4 R D 24 D / 24 R 45 D / 57 R Legislature
So. Carol. (6) 2 D / 4 R R 20 D / 26 R 51 D / 73 R Legislature
TIER FOUR are the states with a strong Democratic base. As predicted, most are in the Northeast and the Pacific West. These states have been producing a good ratio of Democratic seats, however, NJ is one of those incumbent-friendly states. With a little push, perhaps we can grab an extra seat or two. TOP TARGETS: ME-State Senate, NJ-State Senate, NJ-State House
TIER FOUR (11) 2006 GOV ST. SEN. ST. HOUSE DECIDER
Arkansas (4) 3 D / 1 R D 27 D / 8 R 75 D / 25 R Commission
Connecticut (5) 4 D / 1 R R 24 D / 12 R 106 D / 45 R Legislature
Hawaii (2) 2 D / 0 R R 20 D / 5 R 43 D / 8 R Commission
Maine (2) 2 D / 0 R D 18 D / 17 R 89 D / 60 R * Commission
Maryland (8) 6 D / 2 R D 33 D / 14 R 106 D / 35 R Governor
New Hampshire (2) 2 D / 0 R D 14 D / 10 R 239 D / 161 R Legislature
New Jersey (13) 7 D / 6 R D ('09) 22 D / 18 R 49 D / 31 R Commission
Oregon (5) 4 D / 1 R D 17 D / 11 R 31 D / 29 R Legislature
Rhode Island (2) 2 D / 0 R R 33 D / 5 R 60 D / 15 R Legislature
Washington (9) 6 D / 3 R D ('08) 32 D / 17 R 63 D / 35 R Commission
W. Virginia (3) 2 D / 1 R D ('08) 23 D 11 R 72 D 28 R Legislature
(*) - Maine has two independents in the House. Oregon has 2 independents in the Senate.
Hat tip to the National Conference of State Legislatures for the state breakdowns. Apologies in advance for any errors.
As I mentioned, I hope this will spur a discussion on strategy. It would be great to actually come up with names of vulnerable Republican incumbents. We have four years to get this done, let's start making headway right now!