Iran: The Danger of an Irrelevant President

Numerous reports about the conclusions of the Iraq Study Group suggest that it will follow a number of other observers in advocating that the US talk directly with Iran.  However, George W. Bush has categorically ruled out any such talks until Iran suspends it's nuclear program.  Bush's goal is to push the world past diplomacy with Iran and force it to take action, such as economic sanctions or even backing for U.S. military action.  However, his actions are almost certain to have the reverse effect.  His obstinacy will push others to simply delay rather than to take action.

Anyone who reads past the basic American headlines knows that Iran's nuclear program is not a urgent crisis.  Even if one accepts that Iran is planning to build a nuclear bomb, and remember that there is still no conclusive proof of this, intelligence estimates still believe Iran is roughly a decade away.

Bush, however, is trying to force action by refusing any accommodation or even any discussion.  However, while an Iranian Bomb is a decade away, the end of Bush's presidency is only two years away.  As such, his blanket refusal to talk leaves moderates, whether here, in Europe, or in Iran, with only one reasonable course: wait him out.  Moderates who wish for a negotiated end to this standoff are faced with a simple choice:

1. Push for a solution now while one of the parties categorically refuses to talk,

2. Accept the Iranian nuclear program, or

3. Wait for better circumstances.

Since the end of the Bush presidency will still give people roughly 8 years to discuss a solution, waiting is the only reasonable course of action.

Thus, Bush's plan is almost certain to backfire.  His obstinacy is aimed at pressuring Europe and the world to take action, since diplomacy can clearly not work if the U.S. is not part of it.  But since calendars are near-ubiquitous in the world, Bush as lost the ability to pressure other nations simply by refusing to talk.  By doing so, he accomplishes only two things:

1. He guarantees no progress will be made on the Iranian nuclear issue during his tenure, and

2. He makes the American presidency irrelevant on the issue for the next two years.

The two years lost is a tragic waste of time that could be put toward resolving the issue.  The Democrats should loudly point out that Bush is hindering progress and again making global issues worse, not better.  Perhaps worse, Bush is undermining America's status in the world.  Once, almost no major international undertaking would happen without at least advice from the U.S.  Now, Bush guarantees that any progress will only happen without the U.S.  It is a sad reversal, and it greatly undermines the US position.

Reality will eventually force Bush from his position of obstinacy for its own sake.  The Democrats should push hard to end this counter-productive policy before the Bush Administration wastes any more valuable time.  

•  On Iran, nobody takes Bush seriously after all

  the Iraq BS.
  As far as anybody knows Iran does NOT have a nuclear weapons program, but only a nuclear energy for peaceful ends program. Bushco is not in the position of being able to prove otherwise...
  Alright, Ahminedajab (spelling??? whatever) does indulge in a lot of colorful rhetoric - but don't forget that it was forced on him by our idiotic "axis of evil" rhetoric that we came out with at the very time that Iran was helping us against the Taliban in Afghanistan
  If the world is in deep shit the responsibility is far more Bush's than Iran's.

  by Lepanto on Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 10:23:43 AM PDT

•  Bush and Cheney should resign immediately.

  For the good of the country.  If they can understand those concepts ("good" "country").

  by robokos on Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 11:04:27 AM PDT